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Week in Review: Closing In

The Minnesota Twins charged toward 300 home runs and became the sixth-winningest team in franchise history during a milestone-filled week that saw them carve their magic number down to three.

As the Twins close in on a champagne-popping celebration and their first division title in nine years, here's a rundown of where things stand.
Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/16 through Sun, 9/22

***

Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 96-60)

Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: +167)

Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.0 GA)

Magic Number: 3


The Twins got Marwin Gonzalez back last week. The versatile vet returned on Monday following a three-week absence, starting six of the team's seven games. Max Kepler, however, remains sidelined. He played only one inning all week, appearing briefly at the end of Saturday's loss to Kansas City as a pinch-runner and center fielder. He hasn't taken an at-bat since the doubleheader in Cleveland two weekends ago, and there is still no firm timeline for him to rejoin the lineup.

Adding to the team's injury woes is Mitch Garver, who came out of Sunday's game midway through with right hip tightness, which seemed to be affecting him at the plate beforehand. His removal was deemed precautionary, but at this late stage it's worrisome to see the club's best hitter dealing with any kind of new health issue.

HIGHLIGHTS

In a season full of a good stories, Randy Dobnak might have 'em all beat.

The pitching staff on its own has a number of inspirational and remarkable rookie narratives, from Ryne Harper to Devin Smeltzer to Cody Stashak and beyond. These are underdogs contributing to one of the greatest teams in Twins history, each with his own uniquely heartwarming backstory. But Dobnak has got to take the cake.

The story detailed by Dan Hayes at The Athletic pretty much says it all: Dobnak has a wedding coming up on September 28th and he had to sheepishly ask his manager for permission to attend it. Why, you might ask, would a baseball player schedule a wedding for the final weekend of the MLB season? Because two years ago, when the date was set, what's happening now was not even on the radar.

Dobnak was an undrafted pitcher out of the GMAC, throwing in Utica for an indy team before the Twins signed him in 2017. While not the most flashy or dominant, all he's done since coming aboard is shut down hitters. He improbably flew through the minors on that strength and now is logging big innings during a pennant race. On Friday, Dobnak fired 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Royals, lowering his ERA to 2.01 through eight appearances. It seems very likely he'll be on the playoff roster. A case can even be made for him as their Game 2 starter. Unreal.

Another starter building confidence as October approaches: Jake Odorizzi, who was in dominant form against Chicago on Wednesday with nine strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball. With 13 swinging strikes on the night, Odorizzi notched double-digits for a 10th straight turn. His 13.9% whiff rate over that span ranks 12th in baseball.

The Twins can't count on Odorizzi giving them much length – he has completed six innings only once in his last 15 starts, and hasn't pitched into the seventh since early May – but he has reliably held opposing offenses in check. The recipe in October will call for him to get through five solid frames, with Minnesota relying on its bullpen depth to handle the balance.

That bullpen, for the most part, continues to deliver. Trevor May gave up two solo homers to the White Sox Tuesday in his worst outing since July, but came back with a vengeance, striking out six over 2 2/3 innings against Kansas City. His save on Friday night, which saw him strike out the side on 13 pitches, was one of the most dominant appearances we've seen from a Twins pitcher all year. At least, up until Tyler Duffey did it on 12 pitches in the fifth inning Sunday, running his scoreless appearance streak to 25 in the process. Stashak added onto his quietly fantastic rookie campaign with seven strikeouts over three scoreless innings.

Stashak has a 3.13 ERA and 23-to-2 K/BB ratio in 23 innings since being called up, and his swinging strike rate is eighth-highest among AL relievers since the All-Star break – one spot behind Duffey. With his outstanding ability to pound the zone and miss bats, Stashak is making an ironclad case for inclusion on the postseason roster.

Offensively, Miguel Sano is driving the bus. He was an absolute slugging force last week, piling up four homers, a double, and a triple (!) while driving in 11 runs. He struck out only eight times in 31 plate appearances, with four walks. It is just a joyous delight to watch that powerful swing connect:



Nelson Cruz broke out of his minor slump on Thursday, launching a pair of homers with five RBIs, and the DH added five more hits over the weekend. On Sunday he boomsticked his 40th home run of the season and the 400th of his career. Best free agent signing in Twins history? He could lock up that title with a big October.

I would be remiss not to mention LaMonte Wade Jr.'s awesome week. He didn't get a ton of ABs, but made the most of them, going 5-for-13 with a monster home run and contributing a key play on the base paths as a pinch-runner in Tuesday night's thrilling win. He has quietly been tremendous during his rookie stint, showing zero signs of intimidation. The Twins have gotta be feeling quite good about their outfield depth moving forward.

LOWLIGHTS

Flashy contributions from Sano and Cruz notwithstanding, the offense has been rather tepid of late. You'd like to see hitters getting fat against the weak pitching staffs in town over the past week, but the lineup was silent for long stretches, and put forth a couple of strikingly sub par efforts – most notably when they were no-hit through five innings in a one-run effort against Chicago in a bullpen game Wednesday.

Sunday's 12-run outburst marked Minnesota's first time since August 30th reaching double digits, their second-longest such drought of the year. The Twins' team OPS in September is the lowest of any month by 50 points. They've been held to two or fewer runs seven times, which is already more than any previous month.

Yes, some of this does owe to injuries – Kepler's absence looms large – but there's also been a lack of thunder and/or consistency from some players the Twins are counting on. Eddie Rosario had a couple big games, but also went hitless in three of seven, with his undisciplined plate approach and generally questionable effort level causing some frustration. Jonathan Schoop went 1-for-14 on the week. Willians Astudillo's (0-for-6) at-bats have become so uninspiring I had to finally pull the plug on the Willians Watch weekly tracker.

If they are to have any hope of moving past the first round of the playoffs, the Twins will need their offense to rise to the occasion, plain and simple. Because, despite the bullpen's impressive rise and Odorizzi's potency, this pitching staff isn't offering much reason to believe.

Jose Berrios lapsed on Saturday night against Kansas City, coughing up five runs over six innings. His performance wasn't as bad as the numbers show, but nevertheless it was another poor result for Minnesota's likely Game 1 starter.

Kyle Gibson might've pitched his way off the postseason roster on Thursday with an abhorrent performance that saw him fail to get through two innings. Gibson walked four of the 12 batters he faced, threw only 25 of 52 pitches for strikes, and visibly ran out of gas in a hurry. He's scheduled to get one more start in Detroit on Tuesday, but I'm not sure what he can do at this point to convince the Twins they can trust him in any capacity.

With Gibson becoming a nonfactor, the Twins will be pressed into relying on Martin Perez, who looked flat-out awful while surrendering an egregious 18 hits over seven total innings in two starts against poor lineups. They'll also need maximum efficacy throughout the bullpen ranks, which is why it was troubling to see Taylor Rogers lit up by Kansas City on Saturday night, when he gave up three runs on three hits while recording only one out (on a sacrifice). It was his first time allowing multiple runs in an outing since the grand slam against Cleveland seven weeks ago, so hopefully nothing but a late-season hiccup for the closer.

TRENDING STORYLINE

How are the Twins going to piece together enough quality innings to have a chance against New York or Houston in a short series? That's the urgent question with one week to go until the playoffs. Impressions made here in the final days of the season are going to matter; Rocco Baldelli has only two viable starters and a shortage of experienced, established relief arms. He will need to ride his hot hands to some extent. Can Gibson do anything to salvage the end of his season? Can Perez inspire any semblance of faith? How will the back end of an October bullpen come together, with numerous deserving candidates for a limited number of spots? These are pivotal questions needing answers.

DOWN ON THE FARM

Action is underway in the Arizona Fall League, and Minnesota's top prospect has wasted no time putting on a show.

On Thursday night Royce Lewis started in center field and made a dazzling catch that brought to mind visions of Byron Buxton:



Shortly thereafter, he uncorked a towering home run to left field:



It's certainly been interesting to see Lewis, who played shortstop almost exclusively for the Miracle and Blue Wahoos this season, make starts at both center field and third base in his first week in the AFL. This is a necessary machination in a league where many prospects need to be fitted into lineups, but it's especially interesting to monitor with Lewis, whose future defensive home could very well be one of these positions.

Given his speed and instincts, it always stood to reason that Lewis could be an asset in center. It was fun to see the skills manifesting on the field.

LOOKING AHEAD

The best road team in baseball heads out for a final midwest swing, which will bring them through Detroit and Kansas City to close things out against the dregs of the AL Central. They should theoretically be able to wrap up the division before the weekend, then start prepping for the ALDS. All eyes will be on the health status of guys like Kepler and Garver, who now have about one week left to get right.

TUESDAY, 9/24: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Spencer Turnbull
WEDNESDAY, 9/25: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Daniel Norris
THURSDAY: 9/26: TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. RHP Jordan Zimmermann
FRIDAY, 9/27: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Eric Skoglund
SATURDAY, 9/28: TWINS @ ROYALS – LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Glenn Sparkman
SUNDAY, 9/29: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Jorge Lopez

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38 Comments

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Patrick Wozniak
Sep 22 2019 08:57 PM

Lewis already hit his second HR tonight while playing 3B. Great catch but I don't love seeing him crash into the wall!

    • Steve Lein, nokomismod, h2oface and 5 others like this

Great summary of the week that was. What are Larnach and Kirilloff up to now that their Blue Wahoo seasons are over?

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Aerodeliria
Sep 22 2019 09:32 PM

Thanks as always!

 

I feel a bit relieved to have the magic number down to three, especially with the way Cleveland has been playing. They've lost only once since our series in Cleveland was finished!

 

I wished Dobnak had been given one more inning to be honest. The lead was only 2-0 when he was pulled but he had really made mincemeat out of Gordon on the previous two occasions. Oh well, he at least got the win.

 

Berrios is not a question mark IMHO. His patterns seem relatively consistent (unlike someone like Perez). The thing with Berrios is that if he is on his game, he is money. He could probably go nine without sweating it too much. However, when he starts getting hit in the 5th or 6th, Rocco has got to recognize that he isn't going to be pitching his usual seven because he will be giving back any lead the Twins had given him. This has happened five times in Berrios' starts by my count. Look Rocco's a great manager, but when it comes to the hook for starters and in particular Berrios, he allows too much rope. I'm not saying that the Twins would have won everyone one of those games, but Berrios could have a couple of more Ws and so could the Twins. (I get that this is a bit of learning curve, but the key to a learning curve is the learning part. Every pitcher is going to tell his manager he's good to go, so that information is unreliable. He now knows the characteristics of Berrios, so he needs to be quicker with the hook when things start to go south.)

 

It seems like the rookies are going to have to step up for the playoffs because we are running low on veterans--especially pitchers.

 

Go Twins! (This old song just popped into my head.)

 

We're gonna win Twins!

We're gonna score.

We're gonna win Twins!

Watch that baseball soar.

Crack down a home run.

Give a hip-hooray!

Cheer for the Minnesota Twins today!

    • PDX Twin, kenbuddha, TwinsFan50 and 3 others like this

Wow...and then there were two....Berrios and The Odo (70s cop show)....and unfortunately those two are not Viola and Blyleven and...

 

I've seen Les Straker...and Gibson and Perez...(currently) you are no Les Straker...so hard to really make the '87 comparison....

 

The Twins playoff series could be many things but boring will not be one of them

    • mikelink45 likes this

So who needs to be seen in the last six games? Thorpe? Is Stewart forgotten? Harper on the bubble?

 

Gibson and Perez ned to shine to be anywhere on the playoff roster.

 

Can Smeltzer be an opener? I would try him as that in the Gibson start.

 

Hope Garver is okay. And Kepler returns.

 

Need 3 wins in six games against bad teams who have nothing to lose (see the Royals double-steal in the last game).

    • bighat, MN_ExPat and Huskertwin like this

 

Wow...and then there were two....Berrios and The Odo (70s cop show)....and unfortunately those two are not Viola and Blyleven and...

 

I've seen Les Straker...and Gibson and Perez...(currently) you are no Les Straker...so hard to really make the '87 comparison....

 

The Twins playoff series could be many things but boring will not be one of them

Well, not Viola anyway.Blyleven was 15-12 with a 4.01 ERA.In our favor we have 9 relievers with ERA's well below 4 and 4 wit ERA's well below 3. In 1987 Viola and Berenguer were the only pitchers on the entire team with ERA below 4 and Senior Smoke was at 3.94.So the Twins have 9 guys in the pen with better ERA's than the best guy in the pen in 87 plus Graterol.Even more Reardon was the only other guy with an ERA below 4.5 at 4.48. 

    • MN_ExPat, Original Whizzinator and SoDakTwinsFan4 like this
Put another nail in Cleveland's coffin! Sung to the Beer Barrel Polka in my world! This team is far better than are other two Series teams (minus a couple of pitchers JM FV)....If Cleveland does not make the Playoffs would make this year a winner so far for me. I hate their nasty comments. Eye on that prize Twins...
With the pitching as deficient as it is - they need a healthy Kepler and Garver to have a chance.
    • mikelink45 likes this
Nitpick #2. The Lewis catch was Buxton like. Getting up off the ground without assistance was not! :(
    • Steve Lein, PDX Twin, AceWrigley and 2 others like this
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Only Here in Negative
Sep 23 2019 06:15 AM

 

If Cleveland does not make the Playoffs would make this year a winner so far for me. I hate their nasty comments. 

 

Are we really defending Polanco's PED use? I thought it was a bit of an unnecessary low blow and imagine that it might make the MLB locker room uncomfortable for Clevinger (you seem like you're supporting management with that somehow), but as a fan, not sure it's my place to defend a PED guy to the end. I cheer for him as a Twin and he earns back trust over time but I'm sure each of us has had the same thought as Polanco broke out this year.

 

I'm relatively indifferent to who makes the Wild Card. Cleveland seems the weakest of the three contenders so I guess I'd rather see one of the others who might actually beat the Astros? 

    • woolywoolhouse, mikelink45 and MN_ExPat like this

 

Kyle Gibson might've pitched his way off the postseason roster on Thursday with an abhorrent performance that saw him fail to get through two innings. Gibson walked four of the 12 batters he faced, threw only 25 of 52 pitches for strikes, and visibly ran out of gas in a hurry. He's scheduled to get one more start in Detroit on Tuesday, but I'm not sure what he can do at this point to convince the Twins they can trust him in any capacity.

Gibson probably needs to throw a Billy Chapel-like game to merit consideration for the post-season roster at this point. If he does, I sure hope Kevin Costner is available to play Gibson in the sequel, it would be a great movie.

    • Platoon likes this

I can't imagine any scenario that has Odorizzi making his start on Sunday....except the Twins not making post season. He has to be our game one starter...or game two...and neither will happen if he pitches on Sunday. I'd give him a start on Wednesday or Thursday. But never Sunday (unless also that game is needed to clinch the division)

 

In reviewing the plusses and minuses of the week, don't forgot Castro's terrible AB's. If Garver is hurt and both Castro and Astudillo both slumping..this would be the first time all season the Twins would not have offense from behind the plate.

I do like the contrast with 1987 pitching staff.Thanks for the Les Straker reminder.  

 

There is no doubt in my mind that we will wrap up the division quickly, but the fact that we are playing the worst teams is not as comforting as it should be.The Royals are 4 - 11 vs Twins and average 4.9 runs per game!And they are 2 - 4 at home against us and score 5 runs a game.Mondesi going down hurts them, but we sure have not put them away as I would have expected. 

 

Versus Detroit the Tigers are 5 - 11 against us which exceeds their over all percentage.

 

While neither team is a threat, they have also not laid down for us either.

    • Dman likes this

I would the Twins to rest Berrios until the playoffs.He majorly needs some rest and a recharge.Or maybe let him pitch two innings and pull him so he can keep his routine going.We will need him for game one. 

    • mikelink45 and Original Whizzinator like this
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SpicyGarvSauce
Sep 23 2019 08:30 AM

Gibson and Perez should be nowhere near the playoff roster. Their most recent starts were absolute disasters, against terrible teams.

    • jimbo92107, mikelink45, bighat and 1 other like this
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Nick Nelson
Sep 23 2019 08:37 AM

 

I can't imagine any scenario that has Odorizzi making his start on Sunday....except the Twins not making post season. He has to be our game one starter...or game two...and neither will happen if he pitches on Sunday. I'd give him a start on Wednesday or Thursday. But never Sunday (unless also that game is needed to clinch the division)

Game 2 of the ALDS isn't until the following Saturday (10/5) so he'd have plenty of rest between starts even if he goes on the last day of the season. 

    • JW24, gagu, MN_ExPat and 2 others like this
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Florida Loggerman
Sep 23 2019 09:19 AM

I hope Harper, and Gibson do not make the playoff roster, anybody but those two guys, and honestly, Perez isn't much more of a lock either, his 2ns half performance has been right down poor, so we truly are a 2 man starting situation, that is so scary, when the Astor's carry 3 #1'sin Verlander (another 20 win season wow)Cole is insanely good and Greinke,we don't have one single pure #1 have to fix this issue and the overall pitching roster has to be blown up and totally reubilt after playoff defeat. 

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Cap'n Piranha
Sep 23 2019 09:50 AM

While Gibson was awful, I can't really blame him too much--I blame the Twins for thinking a guy can bounce back from ulcerative colitis in 10 days.Gibson should have been given the rest of the season off with the only mandate to eat as much healthy food as he can get his body right.Have him pitch on the last Sunday of the regular season, and see what you have there.

 

The Twins playoff bullpen is also going to be very interesting.Rogers, Romo, Duffey, and May are locks.With Berrios and Odo absolute locks to be the top two starters, that theoretically leaves you with 5 slots to cover two starters and 3 length guys.But if Littell and Brusdar are included, now you only have one spot, and since you need to count on at least 4 innings in Odo's start, and maybe 5 in both game 3 and 4, I have to wonder if the Twins carry 8 guys, not 7, as relievers.In this case, that would mean Dobnak, Smeltzer, Gibson, and Perez, with Thorpe an alternate if either Gibson or Perez is left off.

    • bighat likes this

 

Gibson and Perez should be nowhere near the playoff roster. Their most recent starts were absolute disasters, against terrible teams.

 

Completely agree. I'm bamboozled by questions like "should the Twins trust Gibson with a start in the playoffs?", etc.....

 

Are you kidding? The guy shouldn't pitch again until the Twins have clinched. Same goes for Perez. And they should both be left off the post season roster. There's no room to carry around dead weight. Give them both a courtesy start when the division is clinched, if the Twins can do it, but that's it.

    • mikelink45 likes this
Mystery meat being served up the Playoff Special Menu. Maybe we get lucky. It could be big fun if we do. All arms and bats on deck.
    • bighat and In My La-Z-boy like this

While Gibson was awful, I can't really blame him too much--I blame the Twins for thinking a guy can bounce back from ulcerative colitis in 10 days. Gibson should have been given the rest of the season off with the only mandate to eat as much healthy food as he can get his body right. Have him pitch on the last Sunday of the regular season, and see what you have there.

The Twins playoff bullpen is also going to be very interesting. Rogers, Romo, Duffey, and May are locks. With Berrios and Odo absolute locks to be the top two starters, that theoretically leaves you with 5 slots to cover two starters and 3 length guys. But if Littell and Brusdar are included, now you only have one spot, and since you need to count on at least 4 innings in Odo's start, and maybe 5 in both game 3 and 4, I have to wonder if the Twins carry 8 guys, not 7, as relievers. In this case, that would mean Dobnak, Smeltzer, Gibson, and Perez, with Thorpe an alternate if either Gibson or Perez is left off.


I don't necessarily disagree, but Gibson has to share some of that blame as well.
I doubt he told the team he was still not ready and they forced him to start anyway. He's a grown man and should be honest with the team, rather than thinking he has to be a tough guy and tell the team he can play when he can't.
    • bighat and In My La-Z-boy like this
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SpicyGarvSauce
Sep 23 2019 12:03 PM

 

While Gibson was awful, I can't really blame him too much--I blame the Twins for thinking a guy can bounce back from ulcerative colitis in 10 days.Gibson should have been given the rest of the season off with the only mandate to eat as much healthy food as he can get his body right.Have him pitch on the last Sunday of the regular season, and see what you have there.

 

The Twins playoff bullpen is also going to be very interesting.Rogers, Romo, Duffey, and May are locks.With Berrios and Odo absolute locks to be the top two starters, that theoretically leaves you with 5 slots to cover two starters and 3 length guys.But if Littell and Brusdar are included, now you only have one spot, and since you need to count on at least 4 innings in Odo's start, and maybe 5 in both game 3 and 4, I have to wonder if the Twins carry 8 guys, not 7, as relievers.In this case, that would mean Dobnak, Smeltzer, Gibson, and Perez, with Thorpe an alternate if either Gibson or Perez is left off.

 

At this point, there is no way the Twins can leave Stashak off the postseason roster. Omitting him from that was either an oversight, or something else. One of, if not both, Gibson and Perez will be left off. I am thinking Perez makes it, just as a 2nd lefty option in the pen.

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yarnivek1972
Sep 23 2019 12:12 PM
I think it would be ironic if the Twins clinch the division in Detroit in front of Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson. Even moreso if they are both fired before the Twins leave town.

While no one (including their own FO) expected the Tigers to contend, I think the Tigers are finding out that Gardenhire is not good with young players. The Tigers have 3 players with more than 400 PA. They are all at least 27. The Twins have 3 guys under 27 with more than 400 PA. I don’t know where the young Tiger prospects are, but they haven’t playing in a season where they are going to lose over 110 games.

 

Gibson and Perez should be nowhere near the playoff roster. Their most recent starts were absolute disasters, against terrible teams.

Which probably means they will both be on the playoff roster.

    • SpicyGarvSauce likes this

 

I think it would be ironic if the Twins clinch the division in Detroit in front of Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson. Even moreso if they are both fired before the Twins leave town.

While no one (including their own FO) expected the Tigers to contend, I think the Tigers are finding out that Gardenhire is not good with young players. The Tigers have 3 players with more than 400 PA. They are all at least 27. The Twins have 3 guys under 27 with more than 400 PA. I don’t know where the young Tiger prospects are, but they haven’t playing in a season where they are going to lose over 110 games.

I think Gardenhire and perhaps the Pohlad's were to quick to bench, let go and just not work with the Latino players.  I also think they including Molitor played the "popular" players to get the fans who were just coming for the Target Field experience.Escobar was one of the first who made it impossible to keep him on the bench.Last year Dozier, Kepler, Mauer, Grossman and Morrison all reasons throughout the year to be on the bench.This year all the guys have gelled and push each other for a spot to play.The last few there was just a few open and with this front office and manager they seem to be giving playing time to those who deserve it.  

    • bighat likes this

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