Twins Spring Training 2021: Roster Battles, Projections and Predictions
Feb 21 2021 07:29 PM |
Nick Nelson
in Minnesota Twins

The Roster Outlook Entering Camp
The Twins are building toward a 26-man Opening Day roster. Barring injuries, a vast majority of the jobs are essentially spoken for, leaving only a few true battles to be decided in camp. Here's how the roster shapes up at this time, with three notable openings:
The projection above begs a few questions: Who's starting in left field, and who's rounding out the bench and bullpen? We sorted through these topics in the show.
Who Starts in Left Field on Opening Day?
Candidates: Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave, Luis Arráez, Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick
It's widely assumed that Kirilloff will ultimately hold down left field, but probably not out of the gates. The Twins stand to gain an extra year of service time by starting him in the minors, and there's certainly a case to be made the 23-year-old could use a bit more seasoning.
We landed on Arráez as the clear choice here. He's got nowhere else to play in the Opening Day lineup at this point, and the thought of him being on the bench for that momentous occasion is almost outrageous. (Especially against a tough right-handed pitcher.) Arráez played quite a bit of left field as a rookie and has stated his intent to sharpen up there this spring.
It seems likely Arráez will be the semi-regular left fielder early on, at least until Kirilloff arrives. Of course, that outlook can quickly change if someone gets hurt, requiring Arráez to fill in elsewhere. Then, Cave becomes the top candidate, or maybe even Kirilloff, should the Twins set aside service-time concerns or lock him up with an extension.
Who Gets the Last Spot on the Bench?
Candidates: Brent Rooker, Willians Astudillo, Kyle Garlick, Travis Blankenhorn, Nick Gordon
Here's how we see a four-man bench taking form currently:
Something to keep in mind is that, under the assumption Kirilloff starts in the minors, Arráez or Cave is starting in left field. So that theoretically opens up an additional bench spot, but there still might only be one for the taking. MLB removed the roster stipulation of a 13-pitcher limit this year, so it's possible the Twins will carry 14 arms. In fact it's quite likely, I'd argue.
So, let's stick with the idea that one final role on the bench is available. That role could take several different shapes. One might argue in favor of Rooker or Garlick, who offer right-handed bats to rotate with Arráez and Cave in left. There's also Blankenhorn and Gordon, who would provide necessary infield depth if Arráez is starting regularly in the outfield.
Personally, I'm in favor of Astudillo, who brings a versatile right-handed bat as well as useful depth at catcher and third base. (Critically, unlike most others mentioned, there's no need to worry about Astudillo's development being impeded if he rarely plays.)
Who Gets the Last Bullpen Spot?
Candidates: Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Shaun Anderson, Edwar Colina
As noted in the previous section, the Twins could very well go with a 14-man pitching staff, extending the bullpen to nine spots and adding another opening to the projection below:
One way or another, the team is all but certain to have at least one long-relief, starter-hybrid type arm in the bullpen mix, whether that's Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, or otherwise. The prohibitive favorite in such a race would be Dobnak, given his experience and track record.
If the Twins go with nine relievers, our panel liked Anderson to win the job, but there are plenty of other contenders, including non-roster invites and – perhaps – lingering free agents yet to be signed.
Which Player in Camp Will Surprise?
There are always at least a few players each spring who go from off-the-radar, or out-of-mind, to center spotlight. Maybe it's the transformed physical shape they arrive in. Maybe it's eye-opening displays in batting practice. Maybe it's huge performances in exhibition games.
On Offseason Live we each put forth a name we expect to generate some buzz in Fort Myers.
- John's Pick: Nick Gordon. An incredibly challenging 2020, which saw him hospitalized for COVID and far away from the baseball field, leaves the former first-round draft pick on a path of redemption as he likely faces his last chance to emerge in the Twins organization.
- Seth's Pick: J.T. Riddle. Keep an eye on this stellar defensive infielder, who could sneak his way onto the Opening Day bench if the Twins go all-in on their commitment to fielding the ball, and value his ability to play anywhere – including short and center.
- Nick's Pick: Aaron Sabato. He's not exactly unknown, as last year's first-rounder and Twins Daily's eighth-ranked prospect, but fans have had no opportunity to get a handle on Sabato yet. He hasn't played in a minor-league game or participated in a spring camp, until now. He was one of the best and most advanced hitters in the 2020 class. I can't wait to see his heralded power first-hand.
We wrapped up the show by attempting to collectively predict the batting lineup Rocco Baldelli will write up for April 1st, against the Brewers and right-hander Brandon Woodruff. We went round-robin, taking turns at each successive spot in the order. This led to some interesting realizations.
(Note: it's since come to my attention that since the Twins are playing in Milwaukee and the designated hitter has been removed from the NL this year, Nelson Cruz will probably not be able to start in their opening series. Lame. Anyway, this analysis still applies with regards to predicting Baldelli's A-lineup.)
Seth chose first, and understandably went with the default at leadoff in Kepler. After all, Kepler has led off nearly two-thirds of Minnesota's games over the past two seasons (63%). But as we continued – Donaldson second, Cruz third – we quickly hit a wall. The cleanup spot that once so reliably belonged to Eddie Rosario is now open, and the best apparent fit to replace him had already been written in at leadoff.
In this our first pass, we went with Sanó at cleanup, Polanco fifth, and then followed with Garver, Arráez, Buxton and Simmons, arriving at this lineup:
But, it didn't feel quite right. So we took another stab, moving Kepler into the cleanup spot and sliding Arráez up to leadoff. This one felt more plausible:
Whether that's how the go-to batting order will look, I don't know. But after working through it in our discussion, I do feel comfortable saying this: Kepler's days as the regular leadoff man are finished. His left-handed power will be needed elsewhere in this lineup, at least until Kirilloff is here.
How do you expect the Opening Day lineup to materialize? Who do you see winning the roster competitions laid out above? Who else might the Twins add before the season starts? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Twins Daily's on-site coverage of spring training will officially commence later this week. John is on the scene and ready to report from the Fort.
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31 Comments
The second lineup looks better to me.Arraezneeds to lead off and worry the opposing pitcher. How patient is Simmons at the plate? Buck needs a few pitches to steal 2B.
Thielbar is a good story. But I don't think he's a lock.
I believe with Nelson Cruz they need a 4th bench. Araez in LF, Rooker, Jeffers, Cave and either La tortuga or a capable SS.
The last bullpen will be a rotation, in significant who is on the opening day roster l.
Pretty sure he's out of options so I'd say he's close to a lock, so long as he's not a total mess.
I tend to agree with this. Which underscores why they probably won't sign anyone else of note for the bullpen.
What is the options status on Thorpe? I read he was out of options, but the I remember seeing something he had a 4th option. Anybody knows if this is true? That is important for who takes the spot on the bullpen.
Agree, and maybe move Buxton down to ninth - as you note, he'll get pitches to look at from Arraez, and I doubt it will bother Arraez to have the Buxton commotion going on at first base.
He was granted a 4th option for reasons I can't remember.
Blind squirrel finds a nut everyone once in awhile is Astudillo in a "nutshell." One trick pony at the plate, doesn't help the twins. Nice story but he needs to be parked with St. Paul team. Give me Rooker, Blankenhorn or Garlick instead.
I really enjoyed this session - the three of you had great give and take and of course I liked John's take on Kiriloff in LF!
I hope Gordan has a good spring and can stick with the team.That young man needs to catch a break!
Interesting read. Hate that no DH is available when playing NL teams, that has to change at some point.
Had to do a double take when I read your pick for the surprise player this spring. Not certain if you expect him to have a great spring, or to be with the Twins on opening day or soon thereafter?
I think we all approached that question in different ways. For John and Seth it was more of a "This guy is a sleeper to make the roster," for me it was more "This guy is gonna generate some buzz and get people talking." Certainly Sabato won't be on the Opening Day team but I think we'll see how advanced his bat is and realize he's not too far off.
Honestly looking at that bullpen lineup doesn't give me a ton of confidence. I'm not too worried about Duffey or Colome, but everyone else on that list seems risky. I think another above-average arm is needed.
Also Sano really needs to step it up if he's going to be hitting in the 4th or 5th spot this year. He can't repeat the performance he had last year. If he's still striking out a ton I would consider moving him down to 7th and having Buxton and Garver/Jeffers hitting ahead of him. And if Sano continues to struggle further down the order I think a change at 1B might be necessary. Having him as a league leader in Ks with a .200 BA and .750 OPS is not what the team needs. Bring up Rooker or Kirilloff and plug them in 1B.
Jeffers is starting. Garver is going to be the backup catcher for now.
I think this bullpen is a little thin. They lost May, Wisler, Clippard and Romo and only got Colome and Robles(who had a bad 2020 season). They need to sign Clippard.
I agree with Fatbat, bullpen is deep. There are 3-4 minor league FAs, plus few on 40 man, and 3 pickups that cleared waivers recently. Don't need all of them to click, but hopefully 3-4 do. See last spot or two in BP as rotating between Twins and St. Paul. League BPs have plenty of pitchers that washed out on other teams then found success on another team.
I look at it this way. It's a tie game in the 8th inning and you need a reliable arm to come out of the bullpen a provide a shutdown inning. Who do you turn to? Right now the only 2 I would trust in that situation are Duffey and Colome. Rogers really imploded a lot in important games last season, Robles had over a 10 ERA last season, and the rest of the options are young guys with very little MLB experience or arms that are trying to reboot their careers.
The bullpen is not deep. The Twins need more reliable, experienced BP pitchers.