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Twins Blogosphere


Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading the Front Office

Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond in 200 words or less (Some writers don’t like to stick to this limit). This will give readers an opportunity to see multiple points of view and then add their own point of view in the comments section.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are two years into their tenure running the Minnesota Twins. In their first season, the club made a surprise run to the postseason and the team managed to have a solid off-season in 2018. With two drafts and trade deadlines under their belt, the farm system has been rebuilt into one of the best in baseball.

This week’s roundtable discussion question is: “How would you grade the front office’s performance? Why?”
Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Nick Nelson
Short-term planning is hard sometimes. No one could have predicted last offseason that returning core players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Ervin Santana — as well as new additions like Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison and Addison Reed — would collectively contribute so little in 2018 after the years they had in 2017. This turn of events completely sabotaged any chance of contention this season, and there's little the front office could have done about it without the benefit of hindsight.

I still like the moves they made, especially because they were geared toward big-picture success. The Twins can move on from Lynn and Morrison after this season and managed to reload the pipeline with savvy trades in late July. They've set themselves up for tremendous spending flexibility this winter. Falvey and Levine have shown a penchant for opportunistically acquiring useful talents — such as Tyler Austin, Jake Cave and Gabriel Moya — at low costs. And, crucially, they've also overseen two drafts that look like absolute slam dunks so far, shoring up a sore spot from the latter years of Terry Ryan's tenure.

The 2018 season has been a bummer but I feel extremely optimistic about the organization's leadership going forward.

Seth Stohs
Always a tough question because what's more important, process or results? Obviously results matter, but that's too easy. We all loved the offseason, for the most part, and adding the likes of Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to one-year deals in spring training was immensely exciting. It didn't pan out. At all.

But I think they've continued to add personnel and systems behind the scenes that should have Twins fans excited.

In season, I think they've been fine. They've been willing to work and make changes to the 24th and 25th men on the active roster, and they've been willing to grab guys on the back end of the 40-man roster.

I may not agree with every single decision, but I do trust the process. I do like what they did at the trade deadline and as they like to say, the way they've developed "waves" of prospects to hopefully put the Twins in a position to compete for playoff spots for the next decade or two!

Grade: I don't know. B?

Cody Christie
Last week’s roundtable revolved around trying to give a grade to Paul Molitor. Managers get too much of the credit when a team wins or loses. For the front office, it takes a long-term approach to revamp an entire organization. The Twins were amid some bad seasons, but the farm system had some good pieces. There are lots of things to consider when looking at the front office as a whole.

In their first season leading the organization, Falvey and Levine kept a lot of the previous front office pieces in place to reevaluate everyone. They started overhauling some of the pieces last off-season so it’s hard to know how well those pieces have worked out.

Even though the wins haven’t piled up, I’d give the front office an A for last off-season. It helps to have the number one overall pick, but the minor league system has moved from middle of the road to a top-10 system in all of baseball. I’d give them a solid B+ for their drafting so far with the potential of it moving higher based on results in the years ahead.

I feel their approach with Sano and Buxton this season was also appropriate. There are few teams that would send a former All-Star all the way down to High-A to “find themselves.” All things considered, I’d give them an A- at this point.

Tom Froemming
This is a tough question to answer, given that Derek Falvey has only been around since October of 2016. There are a lot of areas where I would give an incomplete grade at this point, but overall, I'd give them a C.

Nothing jumps out to me that suggests they're either clearly above or clearly below average.

What's really going to make or break this front office in the end is how they draft. So far, they appear to me to be very good at draft strategy, though having the No. 1 overall pick their first year certainly didn't hurt.

I liked how decisive they were at this year's deadline, but there have been a number of odd scrap-heap additions while guys performing down on the farm have struggled to find opportunities. The more Falvey and Thad Levine put their fingerprints on the org, the more we'll know. I think the next 12 months could be particularly telling

Ted Schwerzler
I've considered this as a significantly loaded question at multiple points during this 2018 season. The offseason was one in which the front office hit it out of the park. They aimed high (Darvish), and they shot often (multiple FAs). When the dust settled, they brought in a crop of players that signified a large talent leap and did so by boasting an all-time high payroll.

From there, things went downhill. A good number of those new players flopped (which isn't the fault of the front office), and the answers sought seemed less than satisfactory. I haven't found myself a fan of many roster moves made during the season and think more games could've been won with better promotions from the farm. As a whole, it's been a strong step forward from the late years of the Terry Ryan regime, but this duo isn't yet to the point of breaking through.

Jamie Cameron
It's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day minutia of what the front office does and doesn't do, particularly with roster management. While some of the roster decisions have been odd (if not extremely poor), there are so many facets of the organization the front office has excelled at.

Early indicators suggest the front office has drafted well in both drafts. Additionally, the Twins offseason was both strong and opportunistic (despite not translating on to the field). Finally, the team worked hard to acquire some exciting pieces at the deadline and took advantage of impending free agents.

One other key lever when examining the front office. We tend to give equal weight to all aspects of the work of the front office in evaluating them. In reality, the number -one pick decision is vastly higher leverage than in-season roster management in a season where they were unlikely to reach the playoffs anyway. While the front office has some areas for refinement, their biggest decisions have been huge wins for the organization.

Steve Lein
Two years into evaluating any long-term “plan” Falvine and company may have is still a bit quick on the trigger, but I am on board with a lot of the things they have done to this point in the short-term sense.

I liked that they struck on a colder free agent market to bring in guys like Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, and Logan Morrison on short deals. On paper they improved some areas that needed it after a playoff appearance, which is what we all asked for. I’ll concede this didn’t work out, but when it didn’t they unloaded those and other short-term assets for future returns.

I also approve of how they seem to be running the minor league system. For once, I don’t have the impression prospects are being held back as a whole. Top prospects Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol were all promoted after a half-season in Cedar Rapids, where such prospects often would spend an entire season no matter how they performed under old leadership. Fernando Romero made his MLB debut after just four starts in Triple-A, as examples.

What I haven’t liked is their usage of the 40-man roster, both heading into the season with whom they protected/lost, and who has been bypassed with moves on the waiver wire. Small potatoes here, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows with them yet.

To assign a letter grade, I’ll say B-minus, trending up.

SD Buhr
The best “grade” I can give this front office is “Incomplete.” It hasn’t had time to fail, but the results on the field haven’t been anything to get TOO excited about, either. I’m sure some will give them a partial pass simply because they were not allowed to hire their “own man” as manager, instead being required by ownership to retain Paul Molitor. I think that’s a cop out.

“Falvine” has only had one full offseason and I think most of us felt they did a decent job assembling a roster over the offseason. I’m also certain that a lot of people are impressed with the way this FO has modernized its approach to everything from scouting to assembling and utilizing advanced data.

I just think running a professional baseball organization is about more than that. It’s also about relationship building – with players, agents, other GMs/executives, affiliates, fans, media and, I’m sure, many more stakeholders.

It’s just too early for me to give a pass or fail grade at this point.

If you missed any of the most recent roundtable discussions, here are the links:
Grading Molitor
Closing Time
Prospect Promotions
Hall of Fame Impact
Baseball in 2028

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84 Comments

Tough to give an overall grade because there are multiple dimensions.

1) Free Agency
2) Trades
3) Franchise Direction
4) Farm System
5) Payroll
6) Draft
7) Scouting

It’s important to consider point in time too. For example, there was ample handwringing when Escobar was traded. Now, in retrospect, the return for this fan favorite player has helped set up the franchise for the future.

PS: Lance Lynn frustrated me immensely with his inability to field his position. Covering first base and fielding bunts was hard to watch with Lynn.
    • MN_ExPat likes this
Play Twins management.

Let’s say you have a bank of $100 million to spend this coming off-season.

How would you allocate it based on position? For example...

$40 million towards rotation pitchers
$30 million towards relievers and a closer
$15 million for a 2B er

Thank you all for resisting the temptation to type "Falvine".

    • kenbuddha, Minny505 and MikeW like this
Falvine has mostly received a pass from criticism the first 2 years here. This off-season will be a big one for them.

With the financial flexibility they have, and a ticking clock before Chicago and Detroit catches up to the Twins, I expect them to make a significant move this offseason either in FA or trades.
    • SF Twins Fan, Don Walcott, wsnydes and 1 other like this

They are finally getting to do what Billy Smith and Terry Ryan should have started in 2011. 

 

Unfortunately the team over-performed last year, which screwed up the PR of starting a proper rebuild.

 

It's still too early to confirm they are properly committed to rebuilding, but the early indication says they are.

 

 

 

 

    • dgwills, ChrisKnutson, jimmer and 4 others like this

At this point, the best grade you can give them is incomplete.The prospect's they have added will take sometime to determine if they made smart pickups. 

 

The free agency pickup this year turned out to be bad additions and they didn't seem to add depth in areas that went bad this year. Their handing of the waiver wire, rule 5 and roster has not been good.We have lost better players than we picked up through these processes.They seem to have very little faith in the pitchers in the high minors and keep running out waiver wire adds.Time will tell if they were right or wrong on these prospects.  

    • h2oface, Dman and ken like this

I don't think the Twins spend much on free agency this coming year. They will be looking for utility type player where they can fill the holes for second and third and they will be looking for veteran reliever to spot into the bull pen. I would think they will also might sign Mauer but I thinks that's still a big if. I think most people think weregoing to compete next year but here's food for thought they may just tear down whole thing again and start over. Meaning if Buxton and Sano have repeat of this year I could see them trading away this core and look to rebuild from scratch with their people but I would say this will be hard one for fans to swallow especially after almost 10 years of loosing. But there are to many ifs for this team to be winner right now.

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howieramone2
Aug 29 2018 11:27 AM

 

They are finally getting to do what Billy Smith and Terry Ryan should have started in 2011. 

 

Unfortunately the team over-performed last year, which screwed up the PR of starting a proper rebuild.

 

It's still too early to confirm they are properly committed to rebuilding, but the early indication says they are.

But they are not rebuilding in any way, shape, or form. TR started the rebuild as soon as he got on board towards the end of 2011 and had us in the hunt by 2015.

 

But they are not rebuilding in any way, shape, or form. TR started the rebuild as soon as he got on board towards the end of 2011 and had us in the hunt by 2015.

 

I would argue Terry Ryan never committed to a full rebuild when he got back on board.

    • Mike Sixel, Twins33, nicksaviking and 6 others like this

Interesting read, thanks.

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SF Twins Fan
Aug 29 2018 11:31 AM

They have done a good job in the two drafts and trading players away, who won't be on the team moving forward, for prospects. The Twins farm system is in the top 10 and some consider it in the top 5. They definitely swung and missed on a number of free agents this past season, but at least they didn't lock any of them up long term. They have set themselves up quite nicely for this offseason because they have a ton of money they can spend. I doubt they will match what they spent this year but they should still be in the $120M range - hopefully more. It's tough to give them an overall grade just yet because the on the field product has lacked.

 

I completely agree with Vanimal that this is a very big offseason for them. How do they read the team this year? Was this a fluky season where a bunch of stuff went wrong and they try to add top talent or do they think the Twins are still a few seasons away and they keep building with some smaller deals?

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nicksaviking
Aug 29 2018 11:32 AM

I don't want to judge the front office as one entity. I know Falvey and Lavine were hired at the same time but I can't imagine they (and everyone else with responsibilities) make every decision as a hive mind. I'd love some clarity as to who has what responsibilities though that probably won't happen so as to best protect themselves. Opaqueness likely helps with job security.

 

So thus far:

 

Whomever is making free agent decisions - B-

Whomever is making draft decisions - A

Whomever is making 25-man decisions - D

Whomever is making managerial/coaching decisions - C-

Whomever is making trade decisions - B

Whomever is making overall development decisions - B-

Whomever is making external player evaluations - B

Whomever is making internal player evaluations - C-

 

These guys shouldn't be evaluated as one; if one of them is making poor choices or giving poor feedback that person needs to go, just like each and every other individual in the organization.

 

    • ashburyjohn, birdwatcher, SydneyTwinsFan and 10 others like this
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howieramone2
Aug 29 2018 11:34 AM

 

I don't think the Twins spend much on free agency this coming year. They will be looking for utility type player where they can fill the holes for second and third and they will be looking for veteran reliever to spot into the bull pen. I would think they will also might sign Mauer but I thinks that's still a big if. I think most people think weregoing to compete next year but here's food for thought they may just tear down whole thing again and start over. Meaning if Buxton and Sano have repeat of this year I could see them trading away this core and look to rebuild from scratch with their people but I would say this will be hard one for fans to swallow especially after almost 10 years of loosing. But there are to many ifs for this team to be winner right now.

10 years? At the break in 2011 we were in the hunt. As we were in 2015, and in 2017 we were the first team in history to make the play-offs after losing 100 games. Most people believe we will contend in 2019 and in this case most people are right.

    • ThejacKmp likes this
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howieramone2
Aug 29 2018 11:46 AM

 

I would argue Terry Ryan never committed to a full rebuild when he got back on board.

I'd love to hear your argument. Note, circa 2009, BA did a long article by their standards on how a mid-market team rebuilds. It's pretty much what TR did. Tear down, play for draft choices, don't encumber yourself with long term commitments, etc. 

 

Also, BA said the minimum time required would be 6 years. TR had them in the hunt in less than 4.

 

Another also, Theo and TR took over at the same time. They had identical records from 2012-2014. The Cubbie faithful were not real happy that Theo took a mid-market approach, which just happened to be was similar to TR's.

I'm on the "incomplete" bandwagon. There are things that I like and there are things I don't. By all appearances they've done a good job with the draft and I like how they're operating the farm system. They appear to be moving prospects up quickly when they've shown that they're no longer challenged. I did like the last offseason moves as a whole. No single move really excited me, but as a whole I feel they did a solid job. I think it's too early to see how many of their personnel moves are panning out. I loved how they decided on a direction at his years deadline and stuck with it. The decisiveness was good to see even though the direction of it was difficult to swallow. Even so, I feel they made the right decision.

 

Things I don't like would include roster decisions and coaching decisions. The sloppiness on the field has to be attributed to the field staff's inability to get it cleaned up. Ultimately that reflects on Molitor, but if his assistants aren't getting the job done than changes need to be made. I can see why they wouldn't be made during the season, but that is where Molitor needs to step in and help. If he's not doing that or is ineffective in doing so himself, then a change there would also be necessary.

 

I do think that this offseason will be a big one for them as it relates to the big league team. Organization wide, I think they're doing a pretty good job but they may be lacking at the big league level. Those balance out in my view. Rome wasn't built in a day, but I do need to see improvement at the big league level before I can get firmly behind this FO.

 

 

    • Riverbrian and h2oface like this

 

10 years? At the break in 2011 we were in the hunt. As we were in 2015, and in 2017 we were the first team in history to make the play-offs after losing 100 games. Most people believe we will contend in 2019 and in this case most people are right.

I'm on this boat and it's far too early to proclaim anybody right or wrong. The 2018 season isn't even over yet.

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bunt_vs_the_shift
Aug 29 2018 12:08 PM

While it's fun to speculate on early performance, I think 3 years is probably more reasonable to evaluate FO performance from a comprehensive standpoint. I'm sure Falvine pitched Jim Pohlad on a "ground up" approach and thus far, I think the stocking of the farm system aspect has gone fairly well. 

 

FA signings were a step up from the TR regime (which was a low bar) while they all haven't worked out as well as we hoped, I think those have been ok.

 

Now please excuse my gratuitous Sano rant... The in-season intervention gets an A. The offseason lack of intervention gets an F.

 

To me, this was a completely avoidable situation that they should have seen coming from a mile away. I can't speak to his minor league career, but as a major leaguer has the dude ever shown up in shape? He's coming off a season where he wore down because of the extra weight and missed a damn playoff game! As arguably the most talented guy on the team and with increased expectations, how did we not have someone on that??!!

 

I am a "take responsibility for your own actions" guy. And Sano needs to own the fact he completely F'd up his own season. Hopefully, this will never happen again.

 

That said... the FO needs to take some responsibility here too. If we needed to hire a team mom like Last Chance U or air drop a nutritionist to the DR to make him eat some damn vegetables and get in the gym, then do it!! The FO can't control in-season performance, but they can monitor what he does in the offseason. We didn't have to lose a season's worth of production out of him on account of how he showed up. 

 

 

 

Another also, Theo and TR took over at the same time. They had identical records from 2012-2014. The Cubbie faithful were not real happy that Theo took a mid-market approach, which just happened to be was similar to TR's.

How have the directions of the two teams gone since 2014? The Cubs have a WS ring and are a perennial contender. The Twins have a single playoff game appearance (in which they got shelled),a 100 loss season and haven't been able to show that they can build off of the previous seasons success despite have a similar core group of players.

 

What I will grant you is that we likely have different definitions of rebuilding. Signing past their prime veterans to fill in a veteran roster mostly void of young talent while languishing at the bottom of a bad division and not trading away the few assets that they do have for most of a decade does not constitute a rebuild in my view. It may fit yours, but it doesn't fit mine.

    • Steve Lein, Twins33, Riverbrian and 3 others like this

Lots of good comments.My grade is a B.Kudos for what looks like strong drafts, adapting(maybe too much in hindsight) well to a surprise 2017 season by seemingly plugging some obvious holes in 17's roster with FA additions, but most of all reacting well at the trade deadline by dumping players for prospects when determining the team was out of contention.It is so refreshing to see bold moves from a Twins' front office after years of mediocrity.

 

With that said, they should be faulted for a couple of major coaching additions, namely the not insignificant hitting and pitching coach positions, neither of whom had the resume to think they would be able to make substantial improvements.And a sluggishness in changing managers and coaches in the minor leagues; instead, with a few notable exceptions, a look at the organization now vs. in 2016 shows more regurgitation that change despite the widely noted "complete system failure" in 2016.

 

This offseason is critical in establishing this FO's legacy.There are a lot of holes to fill and if bold moves are not made, then a D or F grade is far more deserving.

    • Channing1964 likes this

This has to be a resounding F.

 

I get all of the excuses, but if you look at the Twins roster how can you grade it otherwise? This FO has done almost NOTHING to rebuild and develop this team moving forward.  

 

In the positional player group, the only player who is not a 30+ year old free agent to be (Logan Forsythe) that this FO has added is 187 plate appearances of Jake Cave.

 

On the pitching staff, Jake Odorizzi and Addison Reed are all that remains of their additions.

 

I guess you could add Jason Castro, who will be a 32 year old light hitting catcher being paid $8 million to that list too.

 

THis is two years of work by this front office.And to get to a point were we are "only" on pace to lose 87 games, we have virtually ignored developing our prospects.The talent in this organization is deep in the bowels of its minor league system, but at the pace this FO moves them we are several years away.This means that they will come up piecemeal, all require significant adjustment to the major leagues, and extended rebuilding.

    • Mike Sixel, h2oface, mikelink45 and 1 other like this

I won't do the grade thing. 

 

But... I'm excited about the long term

 

And expecting better in 2019 for the short term. 

 

That's on things that I can observe. Behind the scenes I don't know what they have done or will do, in terms of improving the overall process, scouting, analytics, coaching, player development, etc and I think that is where the important stuff is happening. 

    • nicksaviking, Dman and Channing1964 like this

Very difficult for a mid-market team to compete with a large market team firing on all cylinders. The expected demise of Darvish could even things out.

Damn right we have a different definition of rebuilding. I read the BA article and you didn't.

I don't expect the Twins to be able to rebuild as quickly as the Cubs, but I would expect the states of the respective franchises to be much closer than they currently are by now. That would especially be true since the Cubs basically did take the mid-market rebuild approach. One is a perennial WS threat and the other is mired in mediocrity and currently a complete mess. I don't think they need to start over at this point, but they're teetering on pretty thin ice.

I guess that I'd argue that TR never tore anything down. He kept virtually every tradable asset and continued to sign backside of prime players to multiyear deals. They drafted and developed talent poorly despite having the "benefit" of losing 90+ games in 5 of 6 seasons. They've been treading water since 2011. I would consider a rebuild to be complete when the team has a sustained run of quality play and multiple deep runs into the playoffs. This team isn't even close to satisfying either of those requirements.

Edit: I really don't want to hijack this thread and make it about TR...
    • Steve Lein, Mike Sixel, Kevin and 7 others like this

Too soon to grade, you need at least five years.Its kind of like a college football coach, you need to let him bring in his coaches, set up a system, win or lose on his own recruits and actions. Same with Falvine. They've set up new processes, changed coaches, started bringing in new players, had a couple of drafts, etc. now we need to be patient for a few years before we praise or tar and feather them.

    • Channing1964 likes this
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tarheeltwinsfan
Aug 29 2018 12:52 PM

I would like to know if the Twins use any psychological evaluations in selecting free agents to sign. I may be wrong, but it appeared to me that the Twins signed 5 major FA's last year and on paper, they looked good...but something was missing with 3 or 4 of them. Whether it was physical injuries, or they were "head cases", or the Twinsplayers did not incorporate them into the team...I don't know. Yet on paper it looked like a great year for the Twins in terms of FA signings...but in reality, based on 2018 performances, I would have to say that Reed, Morrison, Lynn, Rodney, and Odorizi, turned out to be a weak group of free agents that were paid a lot of money..We have written and read a lot at TD about "veteran leadership" What do you think about FAs who are "leaders" solely due to the fact of being "veterans", but maybe their leadership is not conducive to team building or winning? Or maybe they are "loners" by nature. One can be an encouraging (rah, rah) leader, but not have selected a good path.Maybe I'm way off base here, since I did not travel with the team and am not a sports psychologist. I'm just saying I want some "team first" players rather than "me first" players. There is no "I" in "TEAM". That is especially true of FA's because FA's do not have the minor league relationships with other Twins players , coaches and managers...which helps build a positive, team first, win at any cost, attitude., During the last day or two I have been reminded about "goals larger than oneself", when reading some quotes by and about John McCain.I may be wrong, but I think that was missing on the Twins' team in 2018. But also missing was our #1 starting pitcher, #1 starting catcher, #1 starting shortstop for half the season, #1 platinum glove wining center fielder, the #1 home run leader third baseman, #1 starting second baseman for 1/4 the season and our" team leader 2B, SS, 3B all around great guy" for 1/4th the season. 2018 was a tough year for the Twins and consequently for most of us Twins' fans.. Contrary to what Tom Hanks said in the movie "A League of Their Own", there is crying in baseball. 

    • DannySD and Channing1964 like this

On a related note, I keep reading in different posts that the Twins and Falvine 'will have a boatload of money to spend on free agency'. 

 

I don't see it.

 

The free agent market last year was funky, few signings until late, and for less money. If I'm Falvine I'd let the market self correct downward for another year, keep building the farm system, see how Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios,etc. develop and shoot for 2020 to spend this boatload of money.

    • ChrisKnutson likes this

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