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Article: Game Thread: Twins@Mariners 5/25 9:10PM

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Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:53 AM
I enjoyed the article linked below about Buxton. As you can see, the Twins and lots of other folks seem to think that he could be a hall...
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Top Prospect Timelines

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:52 AM
Twins Daily Roundtable is a new weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respo...
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Hanley Ramirez DFA'd

Other Baseball Today, 09:48 AM
Red Sox DFA'd Hanley, Thoughts?   https://www.mlb.com/...ent/c-278245918
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Article: Did Minnesota Just Summon the Ghost of Christmas...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:54 AM
In the Charles Dickens classic, A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by three ghosts.The last of these phantoms, the Ghost of C...
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Twins Considered Favorites To Sign Lance Lynn

The calendar has turned over to March, yet here we are, still waiting to see where Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb end up playing in 2018. What are their odds of signing with the Minnesota Twins? Well, here are the current betting odds on where those three will sign, as well as the odds on who will win the World Series and individual awards.
Image courtesy of Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
The folks at My Top Sportsbooks have tabbed the Twins as the favorites to sign Lynn. They put 5/4 odds on a Lynn/Twins union. For Cobb, the Twins are set at 6/1 odds, which trails the Orioles (2/1), Rangers (7/2) and Brewers (4/1). Minnesota was not listed among the most likely landing spots for Arrieta.

Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press recently reported that a rival scout said the Twins were “still looking for another starter.” In that same article, he noted that the Twins offered Lynn a two-year, $20 million deal, which was quickly declined.

Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, worth $17.4 million, so it’s not surprising he turned down the lowball offer from the Twins. Prior to the start of the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected that he’d sign for four years, $56 million. A lot has changed since then.

With Ervin Santana out, the Opening Day rotation figures to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and some combination of Adalberto Mejia, Phil Hughes, Anibal Sanchez and Aaron Slegers. Paul Molitor is considering starting the year with a four-man rotation, but that’s not set in stone. While there are no shortage of options to fill out the rotation, that’s not a projected staff that will inspire World Series aspirations. Speaking of which …

World Series Odds

The Twins still only have 40/1 odds at winning the World Series, per the same article mentioned above. There are 15 other teams listed ahead of the Twins, with the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and Yankees all tied for the best odds of winning the Fall Classic at 7/1. On the other end of the spectrum, there are seven teams who have 200/1 odds or worse, three of whom are in the AL Central (I think you can guess which ones).

The Twins projected Opening Day rotation doesn’t stack up against the other top teams in the league, but here are a few things to consider …

-They could still sign Lynn or one of the other free agents.
-You never know, Berrios could ascend into true ace status this season.
-The Twins could make a massive trade at the deadline to add a significant piece. They certainly have the prospects to do so.
-There are reinforcements coming. Santana is expected back maybe as early as late April, and Trevor May could return in June. One of the guys on the farm like Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero could be ready to make an impact, as well.

If the Royals, White Sox and Tigers are going to be as bad as everyone projects, the Twins have a huge advantage in the wild card race. Cleveland is still clearly the team to beat in the AL Central, but a lot can change over the course of a season.

To me, the Twins are an interesting World Series dark horse pick. Not because of who they are today, but because of who they could become by the time October rolls around.

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107 Comments

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Walter's Whites
Mar 08 2018 11:55 AM
I know Lynn has his faults, but if we can get him on a 2 year deal with a higher annual amount then do it. We have to get some more depth.
    • glunn, nicksaviking, TheLeviathan and 9 others like this
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ashburyjohn
Mar 08 2018 12:06 PM

Two years is probably the most I'd go on him too - maybe an option for a third year based on 170 innings in 2019? Someone needs to offer more than the lowball $10M AAV, but he is unfortunately one of the casualties of the sudden (seeming) analytic turn of events that has dried up the demand in front offices for long contracts to pitchers in their 30s.

    • nicksaviking and SF Twins Fan like this
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nicksaviking
Mar 08 2018 12:37 PM

Not a fan of Lynn or the remaining free agent pitchers, but if he's signed to a deal I know the front office won't be worried about walking away from should he not pan out, it's fine by me.

    • mikelink45, tarheeltwinsfan and Vanimal46 like this
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Deduno Abides
Mar 08 2018 01:05 PM
Not a fan of Lynn, either, but when you have only three starters you’re sure about at the beginning of the season and one of them has Kyle Gibson’s track record, you may make short term decisions you know you might regret later.
    • USAFChief, TheLeviathan, Sconnie and 6 others like this
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nicksaviking
Mar 08 2018 01:51 PM

 

Not a fan of Lynn, either, but when you have only three starters you’re sure about at the beginning of the season and one of them has Kyle Gibson’s track record, you may make short term decisions you know you might regret later.

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I trust Lance Lynn moving to the AL with a really mediocre fastball array and no true off speed pitch less that I trust Gibson.

    • Thrylos, Twins33, jokin and 4 others like this

Things that work against Lynn:

 

  • He is on the declining side of his career
  • He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
  • He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
  • He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.If/whenthat does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
  • The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.He comes off a lost season (2016).They know his medicals.
  • He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
  • 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
  • Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.

He should had taken the money (QO) and run...

    • Blake, Twins33, Oldgoat_MN and 7 others like this
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twinsfanstreif
Mar 08 2018 02:21 PM

Things that work against Lynn:
 

  • He is on the declining side of his career
  • He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
  • He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
  • He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.If/whenthat does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
  • The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.He comes off a lost season (2016).They know his medicals.
  • He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
  • 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
  • Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.
He should had taken the money (QO) and run...
when you put it that way, I'm not sure I want him at all. Are we even sure he'll be an upgrade over Mejia?
    • Thrylos, Blake, mikelink45 and 2 others like this
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twinstalker
Mar 08 2018 02:28 PM

Some of these guys need to start accepting the qualifying offer.My understanding is that not only is it a great salary, but a team can't offer it two years in a row.

    • Twins33, Oldgoat_MN and Tomj14 like this

 

when you put it that way, I'm not sure I want him at all. Are we even sure he'll be an upgrade over Mejia?

agree, but the only one I am not worried about is losing the pick, the odds say that pick won't in the majors for 4 or 5 years if at all. and if Lynn helps make the playoffs it will be worth it.

    • Sconnie likes this

You could add half a run to Lynn's ERA and he would still have the best one on the team... but his FIP was high last year so lets not bother... come on guys.  

    • David HK likes this

 

Things that work against Lynn:

 

  • He is on the declining side of his career
  • He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
  • He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
  • He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.If/whenthat does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
  • The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.He comes off a lost season (2016).They know his medicals.
  • He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
  • 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
  • Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.

He should had taken the money (QO) and run...

I thought Lynn was one who would cost a draft pick. Thank you for confirming that.

 

I had no idea Lynn's numbers were so pedestrian.

 

Seems like the Twins should just wait until they can debut some more pitching from the minors.

    • twinssouth likes this

Throughout the winter Lynn hasn't interested me. Just because it's closer to opening day and he's still available doesn't change my opinion... 

At this point, the Twins could wait until June and NOT have to pay the draft pick to sign him. 

    • Blake, nicksaviking, tarheeltwinsfan and 1 other like this

Well, if you have followed my posts you know my response - don't do it.Why is a player from another team always better than what you already have?Lynn would have been great a few years ago - now he is not a true upgrade and we continue to pile up contracts that present more obstacles than are needed for the young arms.Hughes is back next year, Pineda is supposed to be ready next year.Add Lynn and there are three big contracts behind Berrios.  

 

I liked adding one arm this year from outside and one from inside.I want to see Berrios and Santana on the top and either Gibson or Mejia filling out the rotation. Thrylos covered the details and makes a great argument why we should have run the other way when Lynn turned down their offer.  

 

If they really want him - one year is all I would offer and tell him to pitch so well that he can clean up as a FA next year. 

    • jokin and BJames like this
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TheLeviathan
Mar 08 2018 03:12 PM

2/20 seems like a rather non-serious offer IMO.

 

Not that they have to sign him or anything, but I guess I don't see the point in even offering that.

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KirbyDome89
Mar 08 2018 03:16 PM

 

2/20 seems like a rather non-serious offer IMO.

 

Not that they have to sign him or anything, but I guess I don't see the point in even offering that.

"Value,"....

 

Joking....

 

Kind of....

    • TheLeviathan likes this
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yarnivek1972
Mar 08 2018 03:19 PM
Not sure I understand the logic of using a high FIP as an argument to stay away from Lynn. He would be coming to a team with one of the best defenses in MLB. Would seem to suggest that he would benefit from an elite defense.
    • howieramone2 likes this

The Cards gave him a qualifying offer so if they thought he was actually bad then they should have been nervous he would accept it.1.4 WAR?That's not so bad is it? Wouldn't a league average pitcher be an asset right now?I think I would feel a little better having him so this is a rare thing for me to be ok with a signing the rest of the board doesn't want.My preference has always been Cobb though.

    • Riverbrian and howieramone2 like this

Lynn rejected this offer.

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AWOLNATION_11
Mar 08 2018 03:25 PM

Maybe the 2/20 was prompted on their end.Asked the Twins if they'd be willing to make an offer.Being less than overly excited about Lynn the response was we'd be in at 2/20, which was then a non-starter from Lynn's side. I can't imagine the Twins were aggressively pursuing him and then only come in with a 2/20 offer.

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Deduno Abides
Mar 08 2018 03:27 PM

I know I'm in the minority, but I trust Lance Lynn moving to the AL with a really mediocre fastball array and no true off speed pitch less that I trust Gibson.


That may be, but at least one of Mejia, Slegers, Hughes and Longibal Sanchez need to be at least adequate, or a fourth starter is needed.
    • tarheeltwinsfan and BJames like this
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Deduno Abides
Mar 08 2018 03:29 PM

Maybe the 2/20 was prompted on their end.Asked the Twins if they'd be willing to make an offer.Being less than overly excited about Lynn the response was we'd be in at 2/20, which was then a non-starter from Lynn's side. I can't imagine the Twins were aggressively pursuing him and then only come in with a 2/20 offer.


In another few days, the available free agents might not be signed in time to be ready before Santana. Of course, if Santana has any problems. . .
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TheLeviathan
Mar 08 2018 03:31 PM

 

Maybe the 2/20 was prompted on their end.Asked the Twins if they'd be willing to make an offer.Being less than overly excited about Lynn the response was we'd be in at 2/20, which was then a non-starter from Lynn's side. I can't imagine the Twins were aggressively pursuing him and then only come in with a 2/20 offer.

 

I can't imagine they spit-balled something like that.There is no upside to an offer that obviously doomed to fail.

 

I kind of hope the reporting is wrong.I like a lot of what they've done this offseason, but this will make the second bizarre contract offer to a pitcher.Starting to become too much of a trend for my liking.

    • Hosken Bombo Disco likes this
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AWOLNATION_11
Mar 08 2018 03:33 PM

 

I can't imagine they spit-balled something like that.There is no upside to an offer that obviously doomed to fail.

 

I kind of hope the reporting is wrong.I like a lot of what they've done this offseason, but this will make the second bizarre contract offer to a pitcher.Starting to become too much of a trend for my liking.

 

I doubt it was spitballing either. I'm sure the front office has done their valuations on these guys and that is where they were/are with Lynn.

    • howieramone2 likes this
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Tom Froemming
Mar 08 2018 03:34 PM

If 2017 Lance Lynn is who he is now, he'd be an upgrade, but there's not a lot to get excited about. But, that was his first season back from Tommy John. Prior to that, he had pitched to a 3.36 FIP over almost 800 innings. That puts him 21st among the 144 pitchers who logged at least 500 innings from 2011-16.

 

So how much you value Lynn is going to hinge on how much you believe he can bounce back.

    • glunn, Dantes929, adorduan and 5 others like this
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TheLeviathan
Mar 08 2018 03:35 PM

 

I doubt it was spitballing either. I'm sure the front office has down their evaluations on these guys and that is where they were/are with Lynn.

 

Why not just say "not interested, we're not prepared to offer you what you are asking for".Giving that offer seems insulting.

    • bcs4 likes this

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