Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

2019/20 Off-season Manager Openings

Other Baseball Today, 08:19 AM
With the season winding down, let's talk about what manager spots will be open this winter. Already open: Kansas City - Ned Yost retirin...
Full topic ›

Front Page: Can the Twins Become the New Astros? Part 1

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 08:01 AM
After recently reading both Ben Reiter’s Astroball and The MVP Machine by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Shawchik, both highly recommended, I f...
Full topic ›

2019 Dominican Winter League Draft

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 07:51 AM
Several Twins minor league players were selected in today's Dominican Winter League draft...      I believe to be eligibl...
Full topic ›

Falvey: "...We're going to target impact pitching...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:49 AM
Make it rain up in here, Derek.   http://www.startribu...rket/562665252/
Full topic ›

2019/2020 Twins Minor League Coaching Changes

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 07:51 AM
http://www.startribu...tes/562941602/   According to the Star Tribune, the Rochester Red Wings will have a new coaching staff in 20...
Full topic ›

Trade Deadline Thread: What To Do About the Rotation?

As we continue to close in on the July 31 trade deadline, we'll be starting a thread each morning here at Twins Daily that focuses on a different topic. Yesterday we discussed the bullpen, today we'll shift the focus to the rotation. Should the Twins be seeking a starting pitcher?
Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
The first question I’d like to ask is should the Twins add a starting pitcher to the rotation?

As of Thursday, there were 58 American League pitchers with 70 innings. In terms of FIP, Twins starters ranked 13th (Berrios), 17th (Odorizzi), 21st (Gibson), 24th (Perez) and 27th (Pineda). In other words, the entire rotation was in the top half of that sample.

To put that into perspective, the Astros have three guys inside the top 27 (Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Brad Peacock), Cleveland has two (Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer) and the Yankees only have one (James Paxton).

Sounds really good right? I agree, however, this only tells us what has happened so far. FIP is a good predictor of future success (well, at least better than ERA), but the unknown element is whether or not the other contending teams in the AL will make significant additions to their rotations over the coming week.

While the Twins rotation flexes in terms of depth, the other top teams in the AL have much more formidable pieces at the top. Can that still work?

Yes, I think it can. We only need to look back to last year’s Milwaukee Brewers for proof. That team had a similar solid but unspectacular rotation that relied more on its depth. Jhoulys Chacin was the ace of that staff, though Wade Miley was very good when healthy. Neither of those guys can hold a candle to Berrios.

That Milwaukee team managed to beat the Cubs in a Game 163 to take the NL Central with 96 wins. The pitching matchup was Chacin vs. Jose Quintana. The Brewers then swept the Rockies, giving up just two total runs in those three games. They even pushed the Dodgers all the way to a Game 7 in the NLCS behind a rotation of Miley, Chacin and Gio Gonzalez.

The big difference is Milwaukee had an excellent bullpen, though it wasn't comprised of costly big-name arms. The Twins will need to upgrade their pitching staff, nobody is going to argue with that, but I’m not so convinced they really need to add a starter. Let me know what you think.

The second thing I’d love to year your opinion on is if the Twins do acquire a starting pitcher, who gets booted to the bullpen? I think this is a tricky question. Might it actually come down to matchups?

Berrios is clearly the No. 1 guy on the staff, but things get very fuzzy after that. Odorizzi went to the All-Star Game, but he has a 7.99 ERA over his past seven starts. On the other end of the spectrum, Pineda has a 2.93 ERA in his last seven outings. Gibson has been steady, but never spectacular. Perez has by far the worst WHIP on the staff, but he's also the only lefty starter.

Deadline DiscussionShould the Twins be aggressive on the starting pitching market? Would you trade Lewis and Kirilloff for Syndergaard? Who transitions to the bullpen if there is an addition? And if you hear any more rumors today, please feel free to pass them along.


  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

83 Comments

I would not trade both Lewis and Kiriloff, but I would trade one for a real stud like Snydergaard and it would probably be Lewis.I like Stroman better and would go for him paired with Giles and move a Lewis, Graterol or similar combo - maybe a multiple Littell, Stewart, Poppen, Eades, and Lewis to give them more to work with.I think volume would mean a lot to the Jays. 

 

NY prizes are too high.  

 

And for now I would like to see the Twins pair their starters with AAA arms like Littell, Smeltzer, Poppen, Stewart - no more of watching a long starter melt down like we had with Odorizzi or Gibson.Instead the starter goes any number of innings and the second man - the paired pitcher - is ready to go like it is his start.

    • KFEY93, jz7233 and TwinkieTownKiller like this
Photo
Alex Schieferdecker
Jul 26 2019 08:13 AM

Another reason why I suspect the Mets are getting so much attention is that other teams have a low opinion of them. Their rookie GM looks like an easy mark, and their coaching staff hasn't caught up to the twenty first century.

 

The appeal of both getting a good deal, and getting a pitcher who may have a much higher ceiling than he's been given the tools to achieve is clearly tempting to a lot of teams. A deal for Syndergaard and maybe Lugo or Diaz is something that just about every team in contention should obviously be kicking the tires on.

 

If the Twins were to be so lucky, or add a different starter, I assume they would move Perez to the bullpen. But is it so essential that they stick to a five man rotation? Perhaps the Twins could go with six starters for the final two months and get their arms even further rest. The more orthodox solution would probably be a hybrid: use Perez as lefty long relief, and sprinkle in a few starts from him here and there.

    • TopGunn#22 and IAMNFan like this

 

I would not trade both Lewis and Kiriloff, but I would trade one for a real stud like Snydergaard and it would probably be Lewis.I like Stroman better and would go for him paired with Giles and move a Lewis, Graterol or similar combo - maybe a multiple Littell, Stewart, Poppen, Eades, and Lewis to give them more to work with.I think volume would mean a lot to the Jays. 

 

NY prizes are too high.  

 

And for now I would like to see the Twins pair their starters with AAA arms like Littell, Smeltzer, Poppen, Stewart - no more of watching a long starter melt down like we had with Odorizzi or Gibson.Instead the starter goes any number of innings and the second man - the paired pitcher - is ready to go like it is his start.

I like this idea

Well judging from Falvey's comments, the Twins are not going to make any moves. He mentioned that our bullpen is fine and that the players we have brought up will help. The Twins have NEVER made a significant move before the deadline with the exception of Shannon Stewart, so I dont expect this pattern to be broke now.
    • Dman likes this

How would others rank the starters that could be available both in terms of short term needs and long term.

For me I would rank Bumgarner as the best option for helping the Twins go deep this year followed by Greinke, Stroman, Boyd, and then Syndergaard.

For longer outlook, I would go with Boyd, Stroman, Syndergaard, and Greinke.

    • IAMNFan likes this

I also think Perez's stuff could play really nicely out of the pen (if his attitude is good about it).

    • TopGunn#22, milldam, ChrisKnutson and 1 other like this
Photo
Tom Froemming
Jul 26 2019 08:32 AM

 

Well judging from Falvey's comments, the Twins are not going to make any moves. He mentioned that our bullpen is fine and that the players we have brought up will help. The Twins have NEVER made a significant move before the deadline with the exception of Shannon Stewart, so I dont expect this pattern to be broke now.

Falvey has a knack for answering questions by not saying a whole lot. It can be kind of frustrating, but it's also a good trait to have in a guy running your front office. If he comes out and says the bullpen is a disaster, I don't think that's going to help him in trade negotiations.

 

Looking back on the transactions made under this regime, most have come out of nowhere. No whispers floated out on the rumor mill prior to a deal going down. So I don't expect there will be much out there leading up to a move. Will they make a big one? Only time will tell.

 

This front office definitely seems motivated to create a long term, sustainable winner, so that makes me feel like a Lewis/Kirilloff trade is highly unlikely, but who knows? Again, I think Falvey is very purposeful in how he communicates through the media and doesn't have any interest in tipping his hand.

    • luckylager, Blake, Dman and 7 others like this
Photo
Cooper Carlson
Jul 26 2019 08:35 AM
Go get Stroman or Ray and call it a day! That rhymed well but I still want Marcus Stroman or Robbie Ray on this team for October. If you want a package deal then pull the trigger on Stroman/Giles or Ray/Holland
Photo
Tom Froemming
Jul 26 2019 08:49 AM

 

Go get Stroman or Ray and call it a day! That rhymed well but I still want Marcus Stroman or Robbie Ray on this team for October. If you want a package deal then pull the trigger on Stroman/Giles or Ray/Holland

I haven't been paying attention to them specifically, but I'm not so sure Arizona sells. Looks like they actually have the third-best run differential in the NL.

No, Yes, maybe. I am saying that the only trade for starting pitching the Twins should make is for someone who is young and has a minimum of two more years that he is under contract/arbitration.Not going to even begin to think about who that may be as there are pitchers like this out there nobody is talking about.

 

Do you give up either or both of LK for such a pitcher, NO.Do you package an attractive deal if pitcher X can be found, yes.I may be wearing blinders, but I believe the Twins have a lot of attractive players that can be packaged, players like one of those six corner outfielders/first basemen who are close, an infielder like Gordon, pitchers like Duran, Rijo, Watson...to name a few. Would I include Graterol or Balazovic, only if the pitcher coming was very good and had longer than two years.Someone who can slide into the #2 slot behind Berrios for the next 3-4-5 years.  

 

I guess I am saying they should not go all in for 2019, stay on plan and build a team that will win for the next five plus years.As for who should go to the pen, not a clue.That's a decision for the guys getting paid the big bucks to make.

    • brvama, Dantes929, DocBauer and 4 others like this

 

I would not trade both Lewis and Kiriloff, but I would trade one for a real stud like Snydergaard and it would probably be Lewis.I like Stroman better and would go for him paired with Giles and move a Lewis, Graterol or similar combo - maybe a multiple Littell, Stewart, Poppen, Eades, and Lewis to give them more to work with.I think volume would mean a lot to the Jays. 

 

NY prizes are too high.  

 

And for now I would like to see the Twins pair their starters with AAA arms like Littell, Smeltzer, Poppen, Stewart - no more of watching a long starter melt down like we had with Odorizzi or Gibson.Instead the starter goes any number of innings and the second man - the paired pitcher - is ready to go like it is his start.

Totally agree. I'd even do Lewis or Kiriloff plus anyone else (including Graterol) in the organization for Thor. But not both. 

 

The pitching scenario you describe would work in September when the roster expands, but it's hard to carry that many "starting pitchers" now. Especially with Adrianza and Gonzalez and Arraez and Schoop all on the 25 man.  

    • SF Twins Fan likes this
Photo
LA VIkes Fan
Jul 26 2019 09:24 AM

I think this news on Syndergaard may be indicative of the present ask in the market. Teams are asking for Lewis or Kiriloff (in the Mets case, both) for controllable starting pitching. We may need to come to grips with the idea that a Syndergaard, Stroman or Boyd will cost us at least one of those two PLUS some good pieces like a Thorpe, Larnach, Rooker, Gordon, etc. or multiple good pieces in addition to Lewis or Kiriloff. 

 

I'm willing to pay that price for Syndergaard, but not for Stroman or Boyd.Maybe something close to that for Robbie Ray. 

 

 

    • TopGunn#22, Dman and SF Twins Fan like this

As has been pointed out numerous times by numerous posters in these threads...something has to be done with the rotation between now and next March...regardless of whether the FO thinks something needs to be done this week. 60% of the rotation are going to be free agents...and there are zero obvious options (for 2020) in the minors

 

IMO, you might as well try to get a controllable (even if just for 2020) starter now, before the deadline, and kill two birds. Even if the guy isn't 'guaranteed' to move the needle in the post-season, you still need to worry about getting there this year and again next year.

    • Tom Froemming and In My La-Z-boy like this

 

I think this news on Syndergaard may be indicative of the present ask in the market. Teams are asking for Lewis or Kiriloff (in the Mets case, both) for controllable starting pitching. We may need to come to grips with the idea that a Syndergaard, Stroman or Boyd will cost us at least one of those two PLUS some good pieces like a Thorpe, Larnach, Rooker, Gordon, etc. or multiple good pieces in addition to Lewis or Kiriloff. 

 

I'm willing to pay that price for Syndergaard, but not for Stroman or Boyd.Maybe something close to that for Robbie Ray. 

Syndegaard has a 4.33 NL ERA. He has 10 Quality starts out of 20. The only stat in his favor over Stroman or any of the Twins is FIP and Stroman still has him beat there. My question is Syndergaard really still a stud?I don''t generally trust NL ERA's anyway but 4.33 gives me pause. He strikes me more as Darvish risk than Verlander.

    • nokomismod, brvama, Dman and 1 other like this
Photo
ChrisKnutson
Jul 26 2019 10:23 AM
As much as I like Syndergaard, I’m really not thrilled about the idea of giving up both Royce and or AK in the first year of our open window. I mean, I’d be just as content with less expensive options like Wheeler or Stroman.

Besides, it’s not like the rotation is an immediate need this season anyways, we have much higher priorities; like 2 quality bullpen upgrades. Seriously, I should be seeing more reports of Falvey being interested in Iglesias, Vazquez, or Leclerc, not Syndergaard in one breath and Daniel Hudson in the other. Although, if Falvey really wants to add a controllable starter to solidify our rotation for 2020 and beyond, he should seriously consider Carlos Martinez; who also could fill our current bullpen need as well.
    • 70charger likes this

I think Syndergard makes the most sense in that he would be here for 3 more seasons and be a top of the rotation arm.For that I would include one of Lewis or Killeroff but not both.What would the Mets want back in a trade?likely Lewis for either SS or more likely CF, Graterol for the rotation and another lower level prospect or two.I think the key is if you think we can sign Buxton to an extension or if you think the extra year of control through 2022 gives us enough time to win.as of right now Lewis is lining up to be Buxtons replacement if need be.Our IF seems pretty set for several years if Arreaz is our new 2B starting next year.Polanco has 4 years left on his new deal.We will need a new DH and 1B after next season so 2 of Killeroff, Larnach, and Rooker will be needed.

 

We will really have a nice rotation if we resign one of our three free agent starters after the season. in this scenario.

 

Berrios

Syndergard

Martin

FA(Gibson, Pineda or Odorizzi)

Thorpe/ Smeltzer/ Stewart/ Poppen/ Wells/ Jax/ Balazovich / Colina and others....

    • TopGunn#22 and LA VIkes Fan like this
Photo
strumdatjaguar
Jul 26 2019 10:37 AM
If one of the current starters goes to the pen, it should be Kyle Gibson. He looks good early and then falls apart by the 4th or 5th. Perfect guy to go to the pen
    • In My La-Z-boy likes this

The future is now.If you are always going to be concerned about the future and do nothing in the present for the sake of the future, you are guaranteed not to have a

 

The Twins need Syndergaard for this and the next 2 seasons more than they need Kirilloff and Lewis. This trade should happen, with the added caveat that the Twins need to look what they need to add to get Diaz.Kirilloff and Lewis are blocked by Kepler and Polanco for the next 5 seasons, and I am not sure that Javier is not better than Lewis at this point.

 

They are just prospects who we hope to one day perform at the level of the players the Twins can get now. It is such a no-brainer.

This will push Odorizzi to the pen.His high fastball will play there and he has been fine for an inning or two.

 

Got to make it happen.

    • TopGunn#22 and In My La-Z-boy like this

 

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that "The hardest sell for the Mets baseball operations department leading up to the trade deadline is not persuading suitors to make substantial offers for Edwin Diaz and Noah Syndergaard. It will be convincing ownership to accept such a deal if it reaches a level perceived acceptable."

 

Good Cop, Bad Cop. "Oh, I'd love to do this deal, but the big mean owner doesn't want me to. Can't you add another decent pitching prospect, so that I can persuade him?" I get the same kind of spiel at the dealer when I buy a car, regarding the flunky's manager.

    • Blake, brvama, nater79a and 5 others like this

My gut tells me that the Twins aren't actually interested in acquiring a SP right now. They're just doing their due diligence in advance of offseason negotiations, or in case something changes between now and the deadline (i.e. a starter getting hurt).

 

Some RP will probably be acquired, though.

    • brvama, Hosken Bombo Disco and MN_ExPat like this
Photo
Brock Beauchamp
Jul 26 2019 12:06 PM

 

My gut tells me that the Twins aren't actually interested in acquiring a SP right now. They're just doing their due diligence in advance of offseason negotiations, or in case something changes between now and the deadline (i.e. a starter getting hurt).

 

Some RP will probably be acquired, though.

I agree with the exception of Syndergaard. I think they're legitimately interested there, but that's far from a guarantee a deal gets done.

 

I suspect they're in on Syndergaard with the idea they'll shift Perez to the pen and then pick up another relief arm. If Syndergaard isn't going to happen, then they ignore starters and move to pick up two relief arms instead.

    • diehardtwinsfan, brvama, TopGunn#22 and 4 others like this

Check out the Comments to this article (https://www.amazinav...ftdZ-YGU8309npM)...

 

One commenter says it needs to be Kirilloff, Lewis AND a young starter (like Buxton) to even sit at the table...Ha!

    • DocBauer and SF Twins Fan like this

 

Falvey has a knack for answering questions by not saying a whole lot. It can be kind of frustrating...

 

I often wonder... do people listen to executives speak and think that they're telling full truths? They need to hold things back so as not to hurt themselves in negotiations. 

 

Take it all with a grain of salt.

    • brvama, beckmt, TopGunn#22 and 1 other like this
I wonder what kind of an innings limit is placed on Big Mike. He might be the one in the pen, even though he has been the #2 for a while. Or maybe he will hit the IL again with his knee.
Photo
In My La-Z-boy
Jul 26 2019 12:48 PM

Yes on a starter. We need 3 for next year - although I'm guessing we sign 1 of the 3 - hoping Pineda. I'd send Gibby to the pen. Perez would throw a fit, and I like Pineda on the mound in the playoffs over Gibson. Perez to the pen in the playoffs - too bad. I have little confidence in Odorizzi replicating his 1st half in the 2nd half. As of today you have Berrios and Pineda and alot of blah going on. Stud starter please. I give up one of the two Lewis/Kiriloff - and a bunch of others. Not both. We can get this done without giving our top two prospects.
Yankees series showed us we need better pitching for the playoffs - hell, we need better pitching to hold off the Indians. Falvey will pull the trigger a couple of times before midnight next Wed. He has to. He, more than us doesn't want the Indians overtaking us - and if they do - at least Falvey gave it his best shot by bringing reinforcements.

    • TopGunn#22 likes this

Similar Articles


by Cooper Carlson , 16 Oct 2019
Photo


by Ted Schwerzler , 09 Oct 2019
Photo


by Matt Braun , 14 Aug 2019
Photo


by Cooper Carlson , 31 Jul 2019
Photo


by Jeremy Nygaard , 30 Jul 2019
Photo