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Article: What Does Aaron Slegers Have In Common With Jake...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 11:32 PM
Aaron Slegers is one of the tallest pitchers to ever grace a major league mound, standing 6-foot-10. That height comes with some advantag...
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Article: 4 Stories To Watch At The Winter Meetings

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:04 PM
With Christmas only two weeks away, the Hot Stove has yet to heat up for Major League Baseball. But that's about to change.Two situations...
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Twins World Series Odds - What does Vegas know that we d...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:26 PM
I guess I'm not that surpised with the overall number, but I am surprised with where the Twins are ranked. The Twins are 75:1 to win the...
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Article: Official Winter Meetings Day 0 Thread

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:02 PM
While most of the official Winter Meetings meetings don't start until Monday, baseball people from major league, minor leagues and indepe...
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Article: Reviewing Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Pr...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:00 PM
Over the past month, I wrote up quick profiles for my preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects rankings. It’s preliminary because over the last...
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That's the Ticket: September Sox

I think I speak for most of Twins Territory when I double-negatively say that I will never NOT want to beat the White Sox. It’s sure nice of them to come back for one last visit, even if it’s just a two-game series. It’s also nice of them to kind of suck.

September Sprints and Swoons
One can spin doctor this pattern either way, but after 12 years the pattern itself is pretty clear: Twins manager Ron Gardenhire’s teams rise to the occasion when they need to, but fall to pieces just as severely when a season is hopeless.
Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Below are the 12 years of the Gardenhire era. The first column is the year. The second is how close the Twins were to the top of the AL Central when September started. And the last two columns were how they did in September:

Attached Image: Gardenhire_Sept_record.jpg

With the possible exception 2008, a season in which they finished September under .500 but still forced a 163rd game, the pattern has been consistent. When Gardenhire’s team is within range of a division title, they win games. When they are not, they don’t. That has been particularly true last three years, when the club’s September record has only been 27-55.

The Twins entered this month 15.5 games back. That doesn’t bode terribly well for the team.

Sox Sliding

However, the White Sox are in a similar bind. While the Twins had a rough August, going just 11-18, the White Sox were even worse, finishing the month with just nine wins, including a seven-game losing streak. They entered the month just three games under .500. They exit the month thirteen games under .500 and playing out their second consecutive hopeless year.

Hopeless years seem to be a similar issue for White Sox manager Robin Ventura – or maybe much, much worse. The White Sox August swoon is reminiscent of their swoon last September, when they also found themselves hopelessly out of the AL Central race. As bad as the Twins finished 2013, the Sox were actually worse, finishing the month 7-21.

But Ventura’s problems could go beyond keeping a second division team motivated. He might just have trouble maintaining a team’s focus for an entire year. Chicago also finished Ventura’s first year dismally, posting an 11-17 record in September and missing the playoffs after starting the month atop the AL Central. You might think a guy with that record might feel a little heat, especially from a fan base as passionate as that of the White Sox. If so, it’s not obvious: instead he’s being praised by local media for getting better all the time.

(Too bad his teams aren’t.)

ITPS! (It’s the Pitching, Stupid!)

The two-game series gives the Twins a chance to tie the White Sox for fourth place in the division after returning from a seven-game road trip against first place teams. But if the Twins want to show any kind of improvement over last year, it’s going to have to be the pitching staff that leads the charge, and that is looking less and less likely.

We’ll start with the season-long stats: the Twins overall ERA is 4.56, 28th in the American League. The starting rotation’s ERA is 5.12 and that is dead last. Also, it’s getting worse instead of better: August’s team ERA was 5.51. (Again, last in the majors).

The two guys starting against the White Sox – Tom Milone and Trevor May – have combined to allow more than a run per inning, which means they have a combined ERA over 9.00 as Twins. Both should be seemingly fighting for their jobs, but at this point it isn’t clear if they are or not. Neither seems to be in danger of losing his spot this September. Neither one is likely to be someone the Twins will trust enough to ink into their rotation in 2015. So both are as likely to win a spot in 2015 based on their performance next spring as this September.

Twins fans may want to view the next two homestands similarly; this is extended spring training. It’s up to you as to whether you want to view that as a positive or negative, but I’ll go with the former. We’re going to see a lot of new faces, build some hope for next year, and suck the marrow out of this wonderful weather we’ve had this summer. If this winter is anything like last winter, we’ll be treasuring these September contests, win or lose.

But yeah, it would be nice if we could win some games, too.


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6 Comments

Looking forward to the Konerko goodbye more than I did the Jeter send-off.

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Kirby_waved_at_me
Sep 02 2014 08:18 AM

I've got tickets for Wednesday night - hoping the rain stays away.

A question about the pitching? The Twins are historically near the top of the list for least walks allowed. Walking batters in this organization is not a good idea. Call down to Houston and ask Sammy what happens. Is this so philosophically engrained in our pitchers that corners become a thing to be avoided? Why not work around a guy with first open, to get to a lesser evil? Carl Pavanno talked often of this and did it. (Save the shots at CP, he is the only Twins pitcher I could think of who would do that). The Twins throw a lot of strikes, but if you are only throwing strikes to not walk anyone, those are not the kind of strikes that get people out.

A question about the pitching? The Twins are historically near the top of the list for least walks allowed. Walking batters in this organization is not a good idea. Call down to Houston and ask Sammy what happens. Is this so philosophically engrained in our pitchers that corners become a thing to be avoided? Why not work around a guy with first open, to get to a lesser evil? Carl Pavanno talked often of this and did it. (Save the shots at CP, he is the only Twins pitcher I could think of who would do that). The Twins throw a lot of strikes, but if you are only throwing strikes to not walk anyone, those are not the kind of strikes that get people out.

Not saying I agree or disagree, but this approach has seemed to work with Phil Hughes (granted, you can cherry pick data to make it support just about anything)....perhaps the pitching talent the Twins have brought in, just isn't that talented.  

Good pitchers throw strikes.Lets see if Milone and May can throw strikes. :)

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Kirby_waved_at_me
Sep 04 2014 06:44 AM

Pretty fun last night, just one rain delay and a couple spotty downpours. 5th inning felt like it was dragging forever (especially the top of the 5th - wasn't sure if May was going to make it out alive). The Vargas homer was worth the price of admission alone.


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