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Minnesota Wild season 2018-2019

Minnesota Wild Talk Today, 09:55 PM
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2018 Vikings In Season Thread

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This is correct, they would lose cap room next year. He's going to stay on the team, the question is what role should he have. I'd li...
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Article: What if This is the Max for Kepler?

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At the end of the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins had a trio of main narratives. First and foremost, this was a tea...
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2018 MLB Postseason Discussion Thread

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How about a postseason game thread? Any MLB postseason discussion can just go here.
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Article: Offseason Primer: Who Needs a First Baseman Anyw...

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MIN 6, DET 4: More Grand Slams, Please

Earlier today, the Twins brought back Matt Belisle, which appeared to be an indication the front office isn’t ready to trust the younger relievers. Well, there’re two sides to every transaction.

To make room for Belisle, the Twins designated Gregorio Petit for assignment, leaving the bench without an infielder. That's a pretty big show of trust in Ehire Adrianza.

In a situation he may usually have been lifted for a pinch hitter, Adrianza hit his first career grand slam tonight, lifting the Twins to a come-from-behind victory.
Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Current record: 29-34
Jake Odorizzi: 52 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 4 BB, 62.7% strikes
Bullpen: 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Lineup: 2-for-4 w/RISP, 3 LOB
Top three per WPA: Adrianza .558, Sano .185, Rodney .101
Attached Image: WinEx612.png
How great was it to see the Twins not only comeback, but also hold a slim lead late? Coming into this game, the Twins were only 4-25 when trailing after six innings.

Eduardo Escobar (who else?) led off the seventh with a single, which was followed by a walk from Miguel Sano. You had to have a feeling things were going to go the Twins’ way when Sano was actually able to check his swing on a full count to draw the free pass.

Max Kepler struck out and pinch hitter Jake Cave flew out. Just like that, you had to have the feeling the Twins were going to squander another scoring chance. Logan Morrison drew a walk to load ‘em up, bringing up Adrianza.

Ehire entered this game hitting .202/.269/.340 (.610 OPS) against right-handed pitchers. Those numbers look much better now. Adrianza knocked his first career grand slam, putting the Twins up 5-2.

Jake Odorizzi started this game for the Twins, and it was pretty miraculous that he only gave up two runs. He walked four batters and hit another one over just five innings, but managed to get outs when he really needed them.

The bullpen delivered, allowing two unearned runs. Fernando Rodney pitched a perfect ninth inning to earn his 14th save. He also rode the bullpen cart.

Adrianza ended the game 3-for-4. Amazing what a show of faith can inspire.

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen612.png
AL Central Standings
CLE 35-29
MIN 29-34 (-5.5)
DET 31-37 (-6)
CHW 22-42 (-13)
KC 22-44 (-14)

Next Three Games
Wed at DET, 6:10 pm CT
Thu at DET, 12:10 pm CT
Fri at CLE, 6:10 pm CT

Last Three Games
MIN 7, LAA 5: Jake Cave Sparks a Fire
LAA 2, MIN 1: Is This a Rerun?
LAA 4, MIN 2: Bullpen, Bats Spoil Strong Start from Lynn

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24 Comments

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Old Twins Cap
Jun 12 2018 09:52 PM

Season-changer? Sano checked his swing and took a walk before Adrianza's blast.

 

Then doinked a hit to right his next time up to drive in a run.

 

Will need more of that. Against good teams.

    • glunn, Han Joelo, Dantes929 and 7 others like this
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Kelly Vance
Jun 12 2018 09:55 PM

Sano went opposite field on purpose...... yay!!!!!!

    • glunn and Aerodeliria like this

The offense is still putrid. Get Dozier tf out of the lead-off spot. On the all too frequent days Grossman plays, at least bat him lead-off. Try Adrianza there. Or get Gordon up here. I'm not sure what to do with Kepler. Maybe try him in the 2 spot. Get Dozier down to 5-6. 

    • Carole Keller, Jerr and DocBauer like this

Current OPS:

 

Cave 1.000

Rosario .903

Escobar .901

 

Adrianza .748.

Kepler .747.

Dozier .717.

 

Sano .693

Morrison .647

Grossman .647 

Garver .639

LaMarre .623

Wilson .510

 

    • glunn and Minny505 like this
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jorgenswest
Jun 12 2018 11:09 PM
I don’t generally pay attention to slash stats in season but Adrianza caught my attention above.

Though not predictive for the future, his 101 RC+ and positive defensive metrics thus far are far better than I expected. I am not sure that they should expect better overall production from Polanco.
    • Minny505 likes this
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Aerodeliria
Jun 12 2018 11:39 PM

It was nice to escape that disastrous 7th inning. It seems like whenever Duke of Earl enters the game everybody starts throwing the ball around (including him). I was so happy MOY didn't opt for Reed to try and save the day. I was calling for Hildenberger (even though my voice can't be heard from this far away).

    • glunn and big dog like this
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Tom Froemming
Jun 13 2018 05:37 AM

 

I don’t generally pay attention to slash stats in season but Adrianza caught my attention above.

Though not predictive for the future, his 101 RC+ and positive defensive metrics thus far are far better than I expected. I am not sure that they should expect better overall production from Polanco.

To your point ...

 

Ehire Adrianza in 118 games as a Twin

.261/.322/.403 (.726 OPS, 97 OPS+)

 

Jorge Polanco in 211 games as a Twin

.266/.322/.417 (.739 OPS, 98 OPS+)

 

Ehire is hitting .340/.404/.723(!) over his last 53 plate appearances. That's obviously not sustainable, but he's been a breath of fresh air for an offense on life support.

    • jorgenswest, Dantes929, DocBauer and 2 others like this
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jorgenswest
Jun 13 2018 06:59 AM

To your point ...
 
Ehire Adrianza in 118 games as a Twin
.261/.322/.403 (.726 OPS, 97 OPS+)
 
Jorge Polanco in 211 games as a Twin
.266/.322/.417 (.739 OPS, 98 OPS+)
 
Ehire is hitting .340/.404/.723(!) over his last 53 plate appearances. That's obviously not sustainable, but he's been a breath of fresh air for an offense on life support.


I know it is still not predictive but Adrianza adds a better glove to similar production at the plate.

Projecting forward it is important to realize that this is Adrianza’s prime and likely ceiling and Polanco is a few year away from his prime.
    • Minny505 likes this
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lukeduke1980
Jun 13 2018 07:13 AM

I've been an Adrianza hater - but he must be working at his craft because he has improved this year.Hopefully it inspires those whom aren't hitting.

 

The offense is still putrid. Get Dozier tf out of the lead-off spot. On the all too frequent days Grossman plays, at least bat him lead-off. Try Adrianza there. Or get Gordon up here. I'm not sure what to do with Kepler. Maybe try him in the 2 spot. Get Dozier down to 5-6. 

 

Horrible idea

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday.

 

Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.

    • rdehring likes this
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LA VIkes Fan
Jun 13 2018 08:16 AM

 

The offense is still putrid. Get Dozier tf out of the lead-off spot. On the all too frequent days Grossman plays, at least bat him lead-off. Try Adrianza there. Or get Gordon up here. I'm not sure what to do with Kepler. Maybe try him in the 2 spot. Get Dozier down to 5-6. 

Mauyer leads off when he gets back. Time to move Dozier down the lineup while he tries to find his stroke.Lineup now:

 

Mauer

Rosario

Escobar

Sano

Kepler

Dozier

Adrianza

Garver/Wilson/Rupp

Cave/LaMarre

 

Then, when we get Polanco back, we can just slide him into the 2 hole, move Escobar to 5 and move Kepler back to 7 or 8 where he belongs unfortunately. Buxton goes to the 9 hole when he gets back. For the rest of the season:

 

Mauer

Polanco

Rosario

Sano

Escobar

Dozier

Kepler

Garver/Wilson/Rupp/Someone we get in a trade (Catcher)

Buxton

 

Bench - Adrianza, 2nd catcher, and 2 of the following - Morrison/Grossman/Cave/LaMarre/8th bullpen guy. Grossman probably gets one spot because he is allegedly an OF and without him Escobar is the 4th OF. Cave has a chance to be that guy and about 15 games to show the team why it should be him instead of Grossman. With Molitor as the manager and Grossman's lack of remaining options, odds are Grossman stays and Cave goes to AAA. LaMarre goes to AAA as injury insurance. We either trade Morrison or go to 7 BP pitchers unless there's an injury. I like Morrison as a 1B but he just isn't hitting so maybe he gets DFA'd (does he have an option left?) for the 8th BP but that's a tough pill for the FO to swallow. 

 

The Twins are 1-0 in Matt Belisle Era 2.0

 

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday.

 

Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.

You're right -- Adrianza was worth about ~1 WAR last year in only 186 PA, and again is ~1 WAR in 149 PA already this year. I wouldn't count on that extrapolating to 500 PA, but he's got room for his offense to falter and still be a perfectly fine bench player.

 

When Polanco returns, I think the Twins might be better off clearing a regular spot for Escobar rather than dropping a bench guy like Adrianza. If Mauer and Sano are both healthy by then, we're really at the point of the season where they could make a move with Grossman or Morrison.

While I hope Sano's single portends better things to come, it will also serve as a useful footnote when assessing the Twins' record in one run games this year.  I wonder what their record is in games where they've been able to tack on that all-important insurance run.

 

 

    • ThejacKmp likes this

 

You're right -- Adrianza was worth about ~1 WAR last year in only 186 PA, and again is ~1 WAR in 149 PA already this year. I wouldn't count on that extrapolating to 500 PA, but he's got room for his offense to falter and still be a perfectly fine bench player.

 

When Polanco returns, I think the Twins might be better off clearing a regular spot for Escobar rather than dropping a bench guy like Adrianza. If Mauer and Sano are both healthy by then, we're really at the point of the season where they could make a move with Grossman or Morrison.

 

I guess that depends how well you think Adrianza can handle outfield? Is he an emergency guy or is he a guy who you feel is on a par with Grossman? Grossman is much maligned in the OF but he at least played it a decent amount. Mauer and Buxton mean bye bye to LaMarre and Cave.

 

Maybe they'll try Escobar as a 4th OF? He's played the equivalent of 30 full games out there but it certainly wouldn't be ideal.

 

I'd hate to give up on Morrison this early. He's got too decent of a track record against righties to be this bad.

    • Minny505 likes this
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OldTimeTwinkie
Jun 13 2018 09:23 AM
I will be surprised if Polanco is anywhere close to what he was last year. Two reasons why; 1. No PED', this year. 2. Not only no spring training preparation but way behind pitching by missing 80 games.

He is not going to just resume where he left off.
    • jun likes this

 

I guess that depends how well you think Adrianza can handle outfield? Is he an emergency guy or is he a guy who you feel is on a par with Grossman? Grossman is much maligned in the OF but he at least played it a decent amount. Mauer and Buxton mean bye bye to LaMarre and Cave.

 

Maybe they'll try Escobar as a 4th OF? He's played the equivalent of 30 full games out there but it certainly wouldn't be ideal.

 

I'd hate to give up on Morrison this early. He's got too decent of a track record against righties to be this bad.

That's all assuming they keep rolling with 13 pitchers. Otherwise there is room for LaMarre or Cave as a proper 4th outfielder.

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yarnivek1972
Jun 13 2018 09:50 AM

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday.

Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.


Is there some metric that says Grossman is faster than Adrianza? It certainly doesn’t pass the eye test. Ehire is pretty quick.

I don’t know how much more time the Twins are willing to give Logan Morrison. My guess is the Sano to 1b/dh starts when Polanco gets back. With Mauer also likely back by then, Morrison is the logical odd man out.

 

Is there some metric that says Grossman is faster than Adrianza? It certainly doesn’t pass the eye test. Ehire is pretty quick.

Statcast has Grossman with a faster sprint speed than Adrianza, both this year and last year:

 

https://baseballsava...team=MIN&min=10

 

 

I will be surprised if Polanco is anywhere close to what he was last year. Two reasons why; 1. No PED', this year. 2. Not only no spring training preparation but way behind pitching by missing 80 games.

He is not going to just resume where he left off.


Suspended players can still participate with no restrictions in Spring Training.

 

Is there some metric that says Grossman is faster than Adrianza? It certainly doesn’t pass the eye test. Ehire is pretty quick.

I don’t know how much more time the Twins are willing to give Logan Morrison. My guess is the Sano to 1b/dh starts when Polanco gets back. With Mauer also likely back by then, Morrison is the logical odd man out.

 

I forget where it was but I saw it here on TD. It might have been the game recap where Adrianza pinch-ran for Grossman? They had a chart with everyone's speed: Grossman surprisingly fast, Adrianza, surprisingly slow. Eye test is influenced by position I imagine. SS are supposed to be fast.

 

Morrison makes a bad 4th OF too since he's left-handed. And sucks in the OF. It's just a shame if that happens - every concept indicates he'll likely be a decent player at some point. Guys don't generally just lose it at 30!

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yarnivek1972
Jun 13 2018 11:44 AM
I’m not sure I buy into that methodology for comparing speed. They are basically comparing the absolute top speed for guys. Sure, for one second Grossman could be 9 inches per second faster than Adrianza. But going from first to third on a single, I’ll bank on Adrianza getting there faster every time.

My philosophy is going to pretty simple. As long as Adrianaza is hitting and producing and he is one of the few that is... Keep letting him hit and produce. 

 

I understand that many have made their minds up about Adrianaza and are very willing to look past this hot streak and wait for the eventual crash down to earth. I'm not a long term believer in Adrianaza myself but in the current Twins offense context, in my strong opinion, you can't bench one of 3 guys actually hitting for someone who isn't hitting but is supposed to be hitting. 

 

It's all about opportunity and this is his opportunity to extend his career and I'm going to cheer him on while he lasts. 

 

Before he arrived with the Twins... the most he had was 113 AB's in a season with the Giants. Let's see if he can extend this run for awhile. 

 

Dave Roberts of the Dodgers would never allow Buxton, Sano, Morrison to perform like they are without a reduction in playing time. 

 

I'm sure the Dodger Fans were not very excited by Max Muncy especially since he was released by the A's. Well... he figured something out and Roberts has him in the starting somewhere most nights because he is performing and he is taking away at bats from Dodger mainstays who were not performing. 

 

This is how depth is created. Let players get a chance to be depth. If they come out of nowhere, let the come out of nowhere. 

 

Disclaimer: I'm not predicting that Adrianaza is going to be a superstar going forward... but I am saying... let's find out... at the very least... it is fact that he is out performing everybody else on the roster not named Eddie at the moment. 


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