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Who's a more valuable trade asset, Buxton or Kepler?

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BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion

The Twins held a 4-1 lead after the first three inning of tonight’s game at Fenway Park, but things got ugly from there. Jake Odorizzi gave up five runs over five innings of work before the bullpen surrendered another five. To top it off, Miguel Sano struck out three times in his return from the minor leagues.
Image courtesy of © Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Jake Odorizzi: 34 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 1 BB, 64.4% strikes
Home Runs: Logan Morrison (13)
Multi-Hit Games: Joe Mauer (2-for-4)
WPA of 0.1 or higher: Polanco .133, Dozier .122
WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.124, Moya -.144, Odorizzi -.290
Attached Image: WinChart728.png
Let’s go around the horn …

First Base
Ryan Pressly made his Astros debut and gave up a solo homer in his inning of work. Eduardo Escobar started at third and hit fifth in his D-Backs debut. Seeing him in another uniform makes me want to throw my computer out the window.

Second Base
Anyway, let’s get to the guys who are still here. Well, for now, at least. Paul Molitor was in Cooperstown to celebrate Jack Morris’ induction into the Hall of Fame. That meant bench coach Derek Sheldon took over as manager, and that meant Matt Magill actually got to pitch.

Magill gave up a run on two hits over 1 ⅔ innings, but he also struck out three batters.

Third Base
That’s where Miguel Sano was, making his first appearance with the Twins since June 13. Parker wrote a great article titled Ready Or Not Here Comes Sano earlier today, I encourage you to check that out. Well, I don’t know if you could necessarily say that Sano didn’t look ready, but he certainly didn’t shine in his return. He was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.

Home Plate
Gabriel Moya, the other guy who was just added to the 25-man roster, didn’t look so great himself. He faced four batters and gave up a double, a walk, a single and threw a wild pitch. I thought it was a little curious that the Twins would add a third lefty to the pen.

Zach Duke hasn’t pitched for three games now. Duke was already a likely trade candidate, but putting two and two together tells me his days in a Twins uni have to be numbered.

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen728.png
AL Central Standings
CLE 56-47
MIN 48-55 (-8)
DET 45-61 (-12.5)
CHW 37-67 (-19-5)
KC 32-72 (-24.5)

Next Three Games
Sun at BOS, 12:05 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Mon vs. CLE, 7:10 pm CT: TBD
Tue vs. CLE, 7:10 pm CT: TBD

Last Three Games
BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, but at Least We Still Have Belisle
MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great
MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!!!

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27 Comments

I think Duke goes to Red Sox. That has to be the reason he hasn't played. They don't want him to pitch against them in this series. My guess is he is traded tomorrow.
    • ashbury, Jerr and Sconnie like this
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Twinsoholic
Jul 28 2018 09:24 PM
I agree that Duke not pitching means he is being traded to the Red Sox. I wonder what the Twins could get for Taylor Rogers, a lefty under team control who throws 94 mph and is sometimes quite effective and sometimes what he was tonight.

 

I think Duke goes to Red Sox. That has to be the reason he hasn't played. They don't want him to pitch against them in this series. My guess is he is traded tomorrow.

Or maybe the Red Sox made noises about Duke so the Twins wouldn't use him in this game, instead using a lesser pitcher in Moya...

 

People aren't that sneaky, are they...?

    • Dman likes this

"Magill gave up a run on two hits over 1 ⅔ innings, but he also struck out three batters." Well, kind of. He pitched in 3 innings. On the stat sheet, he gave up two runs, but one was Taylor Rodgers (and the brain trust, who ordered two intentional walks) walking a third batter all on his own and walking in Betts with the bases now packed, instead of providing relief, so I will also go with he only gave up one run, too. 

 

And what? No Rodney?

    • mikelink45 likes this
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Tom Froemming
Jul 28 2018 09:48 PM

 

"Magill gave up a run on two hits over 1 ⅔ innings, but he also struck out three batters." Well, kind of. He pitched in 3 innings. On the stat sheet, he gave up two runs, but one was Taylor Rodgers and the brain trust (two intentional walks) walking in Betts instead of providing relief, so I will also go with he only gave up one run, too. 

 

And what? No Rodney?

Eh, what the hell, why not? We'll put down whatever we feel like. Nobody's gonna be reading these things anymore anyway :)

    • USAFChief, h2oface, mikelink45 and 8 others like this

 

Eh, what the hell, why not? We'll put down whatever we feel like. Nobody's gonna be reading these things anymore anyway :)

 

Now that is funny! Next up, Tom's stand up routine......

    • Hosken Bombo Disco, wsnydes and Tom Froemming like this
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Tom Froemming
Jul 28 2018 10:04 PM

 

Now that is funny! Next up, Tom's stand up routine......

I'm going full Bob Uecker in Major League now.

 

The post-game show is brought to you by … Christ, I can't find it. To hell with it.

    • USAFChief, glunn, Han Joelo and 10 others like this
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theBOMisthebomb
Jul 29 2018 04:38 AM
The only drum I can bang at this juncture is that the Twins have seven games against the Cleveland baseball club between now and August 9. That's it.

Eh, what the hell, why not? We'll put down whatever we feel like. Nobody's gonna be reading these things anymore anyway :)

I will Tom, I promise. :). It's just like the news, one always checks out the most recent disaster first!
    • Jerr and Tom Froemming like this
Bottom line, they have committed themselves to at the minimum a major overhaul. I had no problem with that. But then they better do one, and not trade people and replace them with the next Belisle or Wislon.
    • mikelink45, wsnydes and BJames like this

Paul Molitor was in Cooperstown to celebrate Jack Morris’ induction into the Hall of Fame. That meant bench coach Derek Sheldon took over as manager


Is this a little weird to anyone else? I mean, I absolutely support these guys taking off for family things, but this is a professional thing and it feels like a weak one. They were teammates for 1 season, and though their team won the World Series, Morris was awful that year and didn't even play in the postseason. I guess they faced each other as amateurs in St Paul, a year apart in school? Their post-playing careers don't seem to have much overlap either.

Couldn't Molitor Skype it in on a game day? The ceremony was presumably early and the game was late. I guess it is only a 4 hour drive from Cooperstown to Boston too.

Is this a little weird to anyone else? I mean, I absolutely support these guys taking off for family things, but this is a professional thing and it feels like a weak one. They were teammates for 1 season, and though their team won the World Series, Morris was awful that year and didn't even play in the postseason. I guess they faced each other as amateurs in St Paul, a year apart in school? Their post-playing careers don't seem to have much overlap either.

Couldn't Molitor Skype it in on a game day? The ceremony was presumably early and the game was late. I guess it is only a 4 hour drive from Cooperstown to Boston too.

Every year I wonder why HOF festivities don’t coincide with the All Star break
    • 70charger, mikelink45 and Platoon like this
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yarnivek1972
Jul 29 2018 07:00 AM
If there was already a deal in place to send Duke to Boston, they would announce it and he’d be in their uniform. They wouldn’t wait until after the series. Sure, they could be working on it yet. But there is no way Boston suggested that the Twins not use him while negotiations were ongoing. That would be tampering and could be construed as attempting to influence the outcome (i.e. fixing) of games. There is no way either team would do that. Anyone caught doing it would be banned for life.
    • Sconnie, Dman and Platoon like this

This is awfully early for malaise to set in, but we really only have trades, Rosario, and Berrios to make the Twins enjoyable.I saw that AZ was looking at Dozier or Escobar - why didn't we make them choose Dozier?  

 

Does Sano look better striking out with less weight?Was that the adjustment - 3 out of 4!  

 

This team just is not attractive to a fan except for the two I listed and Gibson.The FO has talked a lot and now has 4 new players in the top 30 prospect list - http://m.mlb.com/pro...s/2018?list=minBut what about the majors?I keep looking for a hook that will be the theme for the rest of the year and keep me watching, listening, caring.

 

One more final thought - we added more prospects, but we have not figured out how to make prospects into productive major leaguers so how does it help to have more prospects?

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yarnivek1972
Jul 29 2018 08:14 AM


One more final thought - we added more prospects, but we have not figured out how to make prospects into productive major leaguers so how does it help to have more prospects?


This exactly.

If your player development staff hasn’t been getting the job done, does it make sense to give them more projects?
    • mikelink45 likes this
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Tom Froemming
Jul 29 2018 08:25 AM

I dunno, seems to me this organization did a pretty good job at turning Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly into major leaguers.

    • 70charger likes this
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yarnivek1972
Jul 29 2018 08:31 AM
Do we really need to run down the list of failed “can’t miss” prospects this organization has had over the last decade?

And how are Escobar or Pressly relevant to the conversation? They both started their tenures with the Twins at the MLB level.
    • Danchat and adorduan like this
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Tom Froemming
Jul 29 2018 08:59 AM

 

Do we really need to run down the list of failed “can’t miss” prospects this organization has had over the last decade?

And how are Escobar or Pressly relevant to the conversation? They both started their tenures with the Twins at the MLB level.

Pressly only had 27.2 IP at Double A when he joined the org and Escobar had a whopping 104 PAs with the White Sox. I feel like it's plenty fair to say both of those guys are developmental wins for this team.

 

I get there's a lot of negativity and frustration right now, but are you really ready to throw in the towel on a 25-year-old Miguel Sano and a 24-year-old Byron Buxton? Derek Falvey's only been running the show since Oct. 2016, you're ready to say he and his staff are not to be trusted with developing players from the lower levels?

 

You don't give this org any credit for developing guys like Jose Berrios or Eddie Rosario? Dozier, Kepler, Polanco, Hildneberger, Garver? How about how Kyle Gibson has blossomed under the current regime?

 

Every team is going to have more failures than success stories. For every eighth-round pick who comes out of nowhere to hit 40 homers you can find three dozen highly-touted players who failed to live up to expectations. 

 

I don't think the homegrown talent is the issue with this organization right now. Most of the issues are coming from the guys who they've brought in from the outside. Do we really need to run down the list of disappointing players this organization has traded for or signed as free agents over the last decade?

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yarnivek1972
Jul 29 2018 09:15 AM

Pressly only had 27.2 IP at Double A when he joined the org and Escobar had a whopping 104 PAs with the White Sox. I feel like it's plenty fair to say both of those guys are developmental wins for this team.

I get there's a lot of negativity and frustration right now, but are you really ready to throw in the towel on a 25-year-old Miguel Sano and a 24-year-old Byron Buxton? Derek Falvey's only been running the show since Oct. 2016, you're ready to say he and his staff are not to be trusted with developing players from the lower levels?

You don't give this org any credit for developing guys like Jose Berrios or Eddie Rosario? Dozier, Kepler, Polanco, Hildneberger, Garver? How about how Kyle Gibson has blossomed under the current regime?

Every team is going to have more failures than success stories. For every eighth-round pick who comes out of nowhere to hit 40 homers you can find three dozen highly-touted players who failed to live up to expectations.

I don't think the homegrown talent is the issue with this organization right now. Most of the issues are coming from the guys who they've brought in from the outside. Do we really need to run down the list of disappointing players this organization has traded for or signed as free agents over the last decade?


Pressly and Escobar aren’t relevant to the conversation because they never worked in-season with the minor league player development personnel. The comment you quoted of mine was in direct response to a post about acquiring minor league prospects.

I made no mention of Sano or Buxton.

So, that is twice in a single post that you directed your response in a completely different way than the post to which you were replying.

I’m not going to change my opinion. The results on the field for the last 7 or so years speak for themselves.

 

If there was already a deal in place to send Duke to Boston, they would announce it and he’d be in their uniform. They wouldn’t wait until after the series.

 

Ha, you think the Twins FO works on weekends.

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Tom Froemming
Jul 29 2018 10:12 AM

 

Pressly and Escobar aren’t relevant to the conversation because they never worked in-season with the minor league player development personnel. The comment you quoted of mine was in direct response to a post about acquiring minor league prospects.

I made no mention of Sano or Buxton.

So, that is twice in a single post that you directed your response in a completely different way than the post to which you were replying.

I’m not going to change my opinion. The results on the field for the last 7 or so years speak for themselves.

So you're basically going to blame Alex Meyer and Trevor May not panning out on the guys currently in charge? Sorry, without you actually saying what you mean you're leaving a lot of gray area. 

 

Here's what I'm saying: The best chance the Twins have at a sustained run of success is through building from the bottom up. Yes, add prospects. Loads of them! And once you're in a position to compete, you'll also have the opportunity to cash a few of them in for MLB talent if you see fit, just like Arizona and Boston just did.

 

Again, sorry, I'm not super sure what specifically you're trying to say, but I'm just puzzled that so many people don't see the value in acquiring prospects/beefing up the system. It can work. We've seen it.

 

Whatever failures there have been on the development side the blunders in trying to acquire MLB talent have been worse, in my opinion.

 

SO THERE, EVERYTHING SUCKS, OK. Can't develop players, can't buy 'em either. Happy now? :)

 

Now please excuse me while I go check to see if the domain www.DiamondbacksDaily.com is available ...

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yarnivek1972
Jul 29 2018 10:23 AM
Just because there are new people at the top doesn’t mean the people in the trenches actually working with players has changed.

Indeed, there have been only a handful of reported changes of minor league coaches, managers, etc. And many of the people moved were reassigned, not simply dismissed. Doug Mientkiewicz being the notable exception. Same people. Same culture. Same results. If Falvine wants organizational methods to change, that is where changes need to be made.


I will agree the Twins have been no better at trades and free agents. The kind of lousiness the Twins have experienced is organization wide failure.

The changes have been cosmetic, at best.

Well, as far as Sano and last nights game, I'll just quote The Who."Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"....

Sano is always gonna strike out. It's who he is as a player. But that doesn't mean he can't be a productive player. Jim Thome struck out over 2500 times. Not saying Sano will ever approach Thome's career but the point is, big power sometimes leads to big strikeouts
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yarnivek1972
Jul 29 2018 11:42 AM

Sano is always gonna strike out. It's who he is as a player. But that doesn't mean he can't be a productive player. Jim Thome struck out over 2500 times. Not saying Sano will ever approach Thome's career but the point is, big power sometimes leads to big strikeouts


Thome struck out 2500 times in over 10,000 plate appearances. His career rate was less than 25%. And he had a 5.9% HR rate. Sano’s career rate is 36.4%. His career HR rate is 5.3%.

Thome struck out considerably less and went deep more frequently.

So, yeah Sano isn’t Thome. That’s not GOOD news. Because that is kinda what the Twins need him to be.

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