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Romero not in camp?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:33 AM
As a post note on the Hardy article, Do-Hyoung Park mentions that Fernando Romero is not in camp.   "He is stuck in the Dominic...
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Minor Leaguers to get a Raise

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:25 PM
https://apnews.com/1...a2641244e0c00fd     Players at rookie and short-season levels will see their minimum weekly pay raised...
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Astros, Bauer, Pohlad's, Twins, Future of MLB

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 09:01 PM
BIG title right? But I think MLB is sitting at a unique precipice right now, and we, as baseball fans, should be concerned about everythi...
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Astros Being Investigated for Using Tech to Steal Pitchin...

Other Baseball Yesterday, 07:54 PM
I can no longer say I want the Twins to emulate the Astros. Bush league maneuver to use cameras in order to steal signs.
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Target Field Ranked #7 in MLB in Craft Beer Offerings

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 06:53 PM
Great article in the Athletic:   https://theathletic....beer-offerings/   Even at #7, we're only 4th in our division.Tigers are...
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4 Starting Pitchers the Twins Could Potentially Trade for at the Deadline

The Twins addressed one of their biggest needs by signing Josh Donaldson, yet, many people feel like the rotation is still a problem. Last night, we talked about how Minnesota can possibly afford to wait until July to make an impact trade. Today, we'll take a look at who the best starting pitching options might be.
Image courtesy of © Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
There aren’t many projections available at this time of year, so we can only speculate about which teams might get to July far from a playoff spot. However, MLB has already kicked things off with its first MLB Power Rankings of 2020 and we can have a tentative idea of what clubs may be sellers at the deadline. Here are my four picks from teams outside the top ten of these rankings.

David Price (LHP)
Upside: If you think the only thing missing in the Twins rotation is an ace that will lead them in October, Price might be the most interesting option. He has, by far, the largest playoff experience out of all the pitchers on my list, with 99 1/3 career postseason innings. In his last two October runs, he’s posted a 2.75 ERA, holding opposing batters to a .172 AVG. Because the Red Sox may be motivated to dump his contract and are suddenly facing a huge wall of uncertainty with the departure of Alex Cora, one might imagine they wouldn’t make things too difficult should the Twins reach them for this deal.
Downside: He hasn’t been quite healthy since the start of the 2017 season, with an average of 119 innings per season in the past three years. If the Twins did acquire him, they would have to stick with him for two whole seasons past this year, so his health could be an issue. Besides, he is still owed a fortune. While this might reduce Boston’s asking for him, if they don’t eat up a considerable chunk of his remaining contract, maybe the Twins should back away.

Mike Clevinger (RHP)
Upside: Coming off the best year of his career (he was worth 4.5 WAR pitching only 126 innings), Clevinger should be a very attractive option, because of a number of reasons. He apparently just entered his prime, he just turned 28 and he’s under team control for two more years past this year.

Downside: With such a long list of advantages, Clevinger will certainly not be cheap. The Indians probably will ask for a huge package in exchange, especially considering who they would be trading him to. Giving away top prospects is not very appealing and even less if they’re going to a division rival.

Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Upside: An injury-plagued 2019 made most people immediately forget about the arguably best starting pitcher from the Rockies. Freeland is one year removed from the best season by a pitcher in Rockies history, when he was worth 8.4 bWAR and came in fourth in the NL Cy Young race. He also has a very respectable track record in college and in the minors before 2019. If he can have a bounce back year, Freeland, who’s still only 26, could be a huge addition for any team now and in the long-term. In his only playoff game, he pitched a gem.

Downside: It’s still uncertain whether 2019 was just an abnormality in Freeland’s career or he just wasn’t as good as everybody thinks. Also, assuming he bounces back, the Rockies would not give him up cheap.

Johnny Cueto (RHP)
Upside: The veteran Cueto brings to the table enormous playoff experience, including a World Series title with the Royals. Before undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2018, he was having a nice bounce back year, with an ERA of 3.23. Coming back from the surgery last year, he had only four starts, two good ones and two bad ones. If he pitches well in the first half of the season, it would make sense to bet him. The Giants would probably welcome anyone trying to get his huge salary of their payroll.

Downside: His health is the biggest question mark, but, thankfully, Minnesota would have another six months to observe that. Even though I don’t think the Giants’ asking price would be that big, he is still owed $21 million for the 2021, which is a lot of money for 35-year old. Fortunately, 2022 has a club option, with a $5 million buyout.

Let us know which other suggestions you have, by leaving a comment!

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20 Comments

With our payroll where it's at now, I suspect the large co tract trades are out of the question. I think the Twins may target someone like Gray or Archer, or a decent pitcher with a salary under 10 million or with less than 5 million remaining for the season unless Rosario was included to offset a higher salary.
    • Oxtung, tarheeltwinsfan, JoshDungan1 and 2 others like this
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LylesCrocodiles
Jan 19 2020 12:26 AM
Dinelson Lamet Frankie Montas and Zac Gallen are guys I’m interested in acquiring. I expect Cincinnati to be better but If they start slow Luis Castillo Sony Gray and Trevor Bauer would be solid options.
    • TopGunn#22, Richard Swerdlick, travkro and 1 other like this
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Doctor Gast
Jan 19 2020 06:54 AM

Thanks for raising this discussion. Unfortunately your top 4 do not make my top 4, primarily because the combinations of downside; Age, salary, injury & trading price that`d be asked. At the deadline we`d need a proven starter, of the ones you mentioned I likeKyle Freeland the most, he has great potential & he`s LH (plus I like Colorado pitching for some reason). Like Pineda he had great potential which the Twins saw & took a calculated chance. For Freeland I`d prefer to trade right away & work w/ him before he has proven himself. Here Colorado might not be willing to do because they still think that they have a shot. Coming to the end of the deadline & Colorado discover they don`t have a shot, hopefully we could have wide choice of Colorado pitching. I also like Ray @ AR, which has been mention. But my preference is trading  NOW w/ teams that know they won`t be contending & there are many options & some might be willing to trade for lesser value ML proven players. My favorite which might not be the best is Archer@PIT, he was not able to hit his peak w/ PIT, he has great potential & I believe Wes Johnson could unharness that potential. I also like Chris Statton@PIT. He could be an impact pitcher this year both won`t cost much as far as prospects go. More proven pitchers are available which would cost more in prospect. Cubs farm is depleted they might have & motivated to trade a pitcher that we might like for prospects

Is Berrios healthy?

Is Pineda the pitcher he was id the second half before the suspension?

Is Odorizzi the first half pitcher?

Is Homer Bailey the better than league average pitcher he was last year?

Is Smeltzer the low 4 ERA or FIP pitcher?

Same for Dobnak?

Does Hill rebound to where he pitches like he did for the Dodgers?

 

If two of the first three questions have a no it is highly unlikely it matters who is available unless the offense is on pace to shatter the 1067 run record.

For every no answer in the second 3, replace the name with Graterol, Thorpe, then Poppen.If you get to Poppens nameand the Twins are not on pace to shatter the 1067 recordit is highly unlikely it matters who is available.

 

There are 2 scenarios were the midseason trade becomes important. One is that the offense has managed to put the team in first place despite less than best efforts from the middle and bottom of the rotation.If the top 2 are going good the team needs a third for the playoffs. The other scenario is Berrios is going great and the team pulls off a blockbuster because they don't think he can keep it up for a whole season but somebody else does.

    • NoCryingInBaseball likes this

The problem in getting a top of the rotation type pitcher in midseason is that it requires a team to be really bad while having a very good player.

    • Twins33 and adorduan like this

This is an interesting contingency study, but ultimately the Twins FO needs to be pragmatic, aggressive, and above all opportunistic, when other teams start quietly shopping their starters. It's really hard, nearly random, to forecast any such events at this time.

    • adorduan, DocBauer, Kummel and 1 other like this
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yeahyabetcha
Jan 19 2020 08:29 AM
If José, Jake and Pineda are all pitching well at the trade deadline, would a trade even be necessary?
I just don't find the need to trade away top prospects right now when the asking price is so high. Wait to see what we have and if we need a pitcher get him in July.
    • yeahyabetcha likes this

Not interested in these.Price has been a disappointment in Boston and I think he would be here too.I do not have a target pitcher.I do not see Cleveland trading in the Central division.Cueto is too injury prone.Freeland?Does he improve us over what we have?

    • alphanumeric likes this

Freeland is an interesting option.So are Montas, Lamet and Gallon.Look, Colorado and the D-Backs are probably going to be 15=20 games out of first place by the middle of June.That's Freeland, Gray and Marquez.With the D-Backs that's R. ray and Z. Gallon.The Padres may only be 10-12 games out, not sure what that means for Lamet.And no matter how bad I think the A's will be year after year, they just always overachieve.Especially in the 2nd half...that kind of takes Montas off the table.However...if the A's stumble, I'd put Montas at the top of the list.  

I know it is the off season, but a little early to be talking trade deadline deals, in my opinion.So much will go into that decision, not only how the Twins are performing, but health, how the targets are performing, how their teams are doing, any prospects that emerge, ect.  

 

To me, unless they would be expected game one, two, or three, pitcher, no need to bring in anyone.If you make a rent a player trade at deadline it will be for trying to win in playoffs and if they will not be a top 3 pitcher, what is point?You either go big, or stand pat.

    • Oxtung and alphanumeric like this
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ChrisKnutson
Jan 19 2020 10:18 AM
I’d take a chance on either Archer or Eovaldi if they can rebound.

I have to laugh at any sentence that includes Clevinger and “attractive”. 

    • tarheeltwinsfan likes this
No to Price for all the obvious reasons. Just forget Clevinger. Not only super expensive, probably worth the price, but no way the Indians trade him to the Twins.

Interested in both Freeland and Cueto coming back from injury. Freeland, being younger, would cost more. Cueto would be a shorter term investment and cost less prospect wise.

I'm not so sure a couple guys we talk about aren't available now. Does Colorado really think they have a shot? Then why have they been shopping their best player? Arizona wasn't planning on adding anyone until Bumgarner worked his own deal to fit in and fell on their laps. They may have the depth to deal now.
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Major League Ready
Jan 19 2020 01:42 PM

 

No to Price for all the obvious reasons. Just forget Clevinger. Not only super expensive, probably worth the price, but no way the Indians trade him to the Twins.

Interested in both Freeland and Cueto coming back from injury. Freeland, being younger, would cost more. Cueto would be a shorter term investment and cost less prospect wise.

I'm not so sure a couple guys we talk about aren't available now. Does Colorado really think they have a shot? Then why have they been shopping their best player? Arizona wasn't planning on adding anyone until Bumgarner worked his own deal to fit in and fell on their laps. They may have the depth to deal now.

 

There has been quite a bit of player movement the last few years by several teams focused on payroll management. Take a look at ther link below. Colorado had never had $100M payroll until 2017 when it was $106. In 2018 it climber to $136M and they have a record payroll of $147M this year. If you think the Twins are cheap ... Colorado has more revenue thanks to great attendance and they had never broken $100M in payroll until 2017. 2018 was their best season in a decade and then they crashed to 71 wins last season. I suspect revenue will be down unless they are smokin hot the first couple of months. It would appear they are looking for payroll relief and probably also fear Arenado opts out and they get nothing.

 

Their SPs are very low cost. From a business perspective it makes more sense to hope for a big rebound. I would think they will get at least as good of a return if they wait for the deadline, wouldn't you?

Freeland is very interesting. That could be a great acquisition but Colorado would be very foolish to trade him now. They have 4 years of control remaining. I love the idea if he could be acquired at a depressed price right now. High risk but also high ceiling.

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Brock Beauchamp
Jan 19 2020 02:52 PM

 

There has been quite a bit of player movement the last few years by several teams focused on payroll management. Take a look at ther link below. Colorado had never had $100M payroll until 2017 when it was $106. In 2018 it climber to $136M and they have a record payroll of $147M this year. If you think the Twins are cheap ... Colorado has more revenue thanks to great attendance and they had never broken $100M in payroll until 2017. 2018 was their best season in a decade and then they crashed to 71 wins last season. I suspect revenue will be down unless they are smokin hot the first couple of months. It would appear they are looking for payroll relief and probably also fear Arenado opts out and they get nothing.

Wow, I knew they were cheap but I couldn't believe this was true but it (mostly) is. Sportrac has them just over $100m in 2016 but the general idea of your post is correct, that the Rockies spent waaayyyyyy less than they should have spent until relatively recently.

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specialiststeve
Jan 19 2020 03:56 PM

Trade targets will change by then... impossible to tell who will be available. Likely will be guys that are overpriced (not going to happen), guys that are on the last year of their deal (depending on what is wanted - possible) or teams looking to get a sweetheart deal for a prime guy (also not going to happen). 

 

I still think we sign a guy or two that are vets with no team... hopefully minor league deals so don't have to put on the 40 man roster. Lightning in a bottle as they say. 

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twinkiesfan11
Jan 27 2020 02:03 PM

Now that Starling Marte has finally been traded is now the time to make a push for Chris Archer? The Marte trade (Pirates receiving two well regarded but VERY young prospects) would seem to be a clear indication that the Pirates are headed for a full tear-down and rebuild so absolutely no reason to hang on to Chris Archer. Archer is about the same age as Marte, both have two remaining years on similar sized contracts and histories of uneven performances. Safe to assume similar trade value? Would Something like Celestino and Enlow do the trick?

 

 

I don't pretend to know how the Twins farm system and depth compared to Arizona. So, naturally, I can't accurately state if Celestino and Enlow is fair or an overpay. Gut reaction is that might be a slight overpay.

It's hard to compare Marte and Archer due to the CF/SP diconomy. Both are 31. But Marte is coming off a quality year and Archer is clearly a bounceback candidate coming off some decline.

Archer is someone I've mentioned before because he is a great candidate, with a change of scenery and coaching, to reverse his trend and become at least a mid rotation option again. But recent trends should make his prospect cost less.

 

Wow, I knew they were cheap but I couldn't believe this was true but it (mostly) is. Sportrac has them just over $100m in 2016 but the general idea of your post is correct, that the Rockies spent waaayyyyyy less than they should have spent until relatively recently.

 

I'm not sure $100 mil is all that meaningful, given inflation. Median MLB payroll didn't hit $100 mil until 2014, when the Rockies were in the middle of a pretty awful stretch of baseball.

 

Here are their opening day payroll ranks:

 

http://www.stevetheu...om/Payrolls.htm

 

2019: 12

2018: 15

2017: 16

2016: 22

2015: 20

2014: 17

2013: 25

2012: 22

2011: 14

2010: 16

2009: 18

2008: 20

2007: 25

2006: 28

2005: 24

2004: 15

2003: 16

2002: 19

2001: 13

2000: 12

1999: 11

1998: 14

 

The Rockies are certainly not big spenders, but relative to league, they've spent at their current level before. Considering the Rockies have been been pretty bad over this time period (26th in MLB wins from 1998-2019), these spending levels/patterns don't seem unusual. 

 

The Rockies were 15th in revenue on the 2019 Forbes list, although in terms of raw dollars they were closer to the 23rd ranked team than they were to the 14th ranked team.

    • Brock Beauchamp likes this