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Fun with Numbers: 2017 edition

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Should the Twins offer Mauer a Koivu-like extension?

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Article: MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back

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Twins Minor League Report (4/6): Opening Day Washouts And Shutouts

Happy Minor League Opening Day! Unfortunately, two of the four Minnesota Twins full-season affiliates had weather that wiped out their games and forced them to be postponed. For the two teams that played, the bats might have been left in Ft. Myers, though they did get a solid start from one of their top pitching prospects.

Read on for our first Twins Minor League Report of 2017. The will be one every day, at least until Labor Day. And then we'll follow the Twins affiliates in the playoffs.
Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Kohl Stewart)
Find out everything that happened in the Twins minor league system on Thursday, even if it is abbreviated.

RED WINGS REPORT
Rochester , Syracuse
Box Score

Bad weather in Syracuse not only postponed Thursday’s game, but the forecast pushed their Opening Day game to Saturday. They will play one on Saturday and two games on Sunday. Jose Berrios will start the game on Saturday.

Earlier in the day, the team announced that Zack Granite had been placed on the disabled list with a strained oblique. He later told me that he suffered the injury on the last day of spring training camp though he doesn’t expect to be sidelined for too long.


CHATTANOOGA CHATTER
Chattanooga 0, Mobile 2
Box Score

Kohl Stewart was given the Opening Day nod by Lookouts manager Jake Mauer. The right-hander gave the team six innings and was charged only with an unearned run. The stat line looks familiar for the 2013 first-round pick. He gave up three hits, walked three and struck out just one. He needed 86 pitches, and 52 of them were strikes. He had five ground outs and eight fly outs.

In the seventh inning, Stewart was replaced by Mason Melotakis. The lefty walked one and struck out two in a scoreless inning. “Melo” turned things over to Luke Bard. Bard walked one and struck one out in a scoreless eighth innings. He struck out the side, kind of, in the ninth inning. However, he also gave up a one-out solo homer that pushed the deficit to 2-0.

The Lookouts were just unable to muster any offense in the game. In the first inning, Edgar Corcino and Travis Harrison each singled, but the team had just one more hit (another Corcino single) the rest of the game. Corcino went 2-4, and Harrison was 1-3 with a walk.


MIRACLE MATTERS
Ft. Myers 0, Jupiter 4
Box Score

The Miracle were able to get some hits, even some extra base hits. They just were not able to turn them into an runs. Chris Paul went 2-4. Alex Perez was 2-4 with a double. Sean Miller had a double. Luis Arraez hit a two-out triple, but he was stranded too. In the ninth inning, they got two base runners on before the final out.

Dereck Rodriguez was pretty solid through the first four innings. He had given up just one run. However, he ran into trouble in the fifth inning. His final line? He was charged with four runs on seven hits and a walk in 4.1 innings. He struck out four. Randy Rosario came on in relief and got two outs right away to get out of the fifth inning without any further damage. In the 6th inning, a batter reached by error and then next batter was hit by a pitch. However Rosario was able to get the next three out to keep the game at 4-0. Lachlan Wells came on and gave up just one hit over two scoreless innings. He struck out three without issuing a walk.


KERNELS NUGGETS
Cedar Rapids, Beloit
Box Score

The weather in Beloit was also poor, forcing the postponement of the Snappers/Kernels Opening Night game. The teams will play two games on Friday, starting at 4:30.


TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY

Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Kohl Stewart, Chattanooga Lookouts
Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Alex Perez, Ft. Myers Miracle


FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS

Rochester @ Syracuse - Friday game postponed. Teams will play on Saturday.
Mobile @ Chattanooga - (6:15 CST) - LHP Matt Tracy
Ft. Myers @ Jupiter (5:30) - TBD
Cedar Rapids @ Beloit (DH @ 4:30 CST) – RHP Eddie Del Rosario, RHP Tyler Wells

Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Thursday's Opening Day games.

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21 Comments

Is it me or Miracle is really strange this season? And, yes, we all know (or should) that they will suck, because the talent is just not there.

 

But how the hey, do you use your one and only starting pitching prospect on the roster (Wells) in relief in the first game of the season?

 

Blows up my mind.

 

Edit:I do like Pudge Jr.But he should try to be a closer...

    • TKGuy and sftwinsfan like this
My opening day edition of the minor league Studs and Duds of the day


Stud
3. Edgar Corcino, 2 of the 3 Lookout hits on the night
2. Lachlan Wells. 3 k in 2 relief innings
Minor League Stud of the Day: Kohl Stewart no ER in 6 innings to take the tough luck loss



Dud
3. The weather
2. Collectively, the hitters, 0 runs in two games? C.mon!
1. Minor League Dud of the day...Dan Rohlfing, 0-3 with 3K
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FormerMinnasotan
Apr 06 2017 09:14 PM
Why on earth is Lachlan Wells a relief pitcher all of a sudden. Right now, Wells is the only potential MLB starting pitching prospect in Ft Myers (unless you want to count Lewis Thorpe but he won't be pitching in Ft Myers until late May at the earliest). So that would mean if Wells moved to the bullpen that the only "potential" starting pitching prospects in the lower levels are either in EST or in A ball. For an organization that NEEDS starting pitching depth across the board that is pathetic IMO.
    • Mike Sixel, TKGuy and d-mac like this
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clutterheart
Apr 07 2017 04:33 AM
Looking forward to reading these the rest of the season.
But I have to concur with the FM head scratching
Wells in the bullpen? Rodriguez as the opening day starter? Zander Wiel batting 2nd?

None of that makes a lot of sense. Hopefully this is an opening day aberration and not a trend
I wouldnt worry about Lachlan Wells yet. It'seems possible he's slotted in as their #5 or #6 starter and they were just getting him work. Also possible that they want him pitching all season, so they're keeping his innings down early in the year. Like you, I don't think it makes any sense to move him permanently yet.
    • glunn and Tom Froemming like this

Very familiar statline for Stewart.  I have decided that I'd rather hope he is some statistical anomaly that will find success this way, rather than suddenly become a strikeout guy.  He is not fascist.

    • clutterheart likes this

Very familiar statline for Stewart. I have decided that I'd rather hope he is some statistical anomaly that will find success this way, rather than suddenly become a strikeout guy. He is not fascist.


I don't see how this works as he moves up the ladder, but he has supressed hits long enough that it's probably not a fluke. Here's to being an anomaly.
    • d-mac likes this

Has anyone watched Stewart pitch in an actual game? Does he get hitters into strike out counts and then have them just roll over on his sinker? Does he get swing and misses earlier in the count?

    • glunn, Hosken Bombo Disco and d-mac like this
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Don't Feed the Greed Guy
Apr 07 2017 08:05 AM
Gordon at SS. Vielma at 2b. It will be interesting how these two share the middle of the infield over the balance of 2017.
    • glunn likes this
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JaleelWhite FanClub
Apr 07 2017 08:33 AM

What happened to Adopt-a-Prospect? Did I miss it? I thought that was pretty fun.

 

Very familiar statline for Stewart.  I have decided that I'd rather hope he is some statistical anomaly that will find success this way, rather than suddenly become a strikeout guy.  He is not fascist.

 

It's a really weird way to get the results he's had and doesn't completely make sense, but he has been consistent. Maybe the 'flash' will never be there from a #4 pick (I hope Falvey can identify something that puts him over that hump), but I think he'll have success as an MLB starter.

 

Has anyone watched Stewart pitch in an actual game? Does he get hitters into strike out counts and then have them just roll over on his sinker? Does he get swing and misses earlier in the count?

 

My experience watching him was that hitters fouled a lot of pitches off. Not a lot of swing and miss, which is actually why he ends up walking more than you like to see (prolonged AB's). Really heavy sinker that when he's commanding it in the zone you're not gonna see anyone square up.

 

Quick run through this box score and the tally was this:

 

Swinging Strikes: 7

 

Foul Balls: 15 (2 were bunt attempts)

 

5+ pitch AB's: 7

    • glunn, gunnarthor, dgwills and 2 others like this

 

What happened to Adopt-a-Prospect? Did I miss it? I thought that was pretty fun.

 

Today is the third day... it's 'draft' is in the Adopt-A-Prospect 2017 Forum.

    • glunn likes this
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drivlikejehu
Apr 07 2017 09:06 AM

 

I don't see how this works as he moves up the ladder, but he has supressed hits long enough that it's probably not a fluke. Here's to being an anomaly.

 

Pitchers do have the ability to influence quality of contact; those that are easy to square up tend not to make the Majors. The problem for Stewart, at the MLB level anyway, is that pitchers need to get some strikeouts too, otherwise even weak contact will add up to a lot of baserunners as a simple function of arithmetic. 

 

Plus, strikeouts are positively correlated with weak contact. In other words, pitchers that are harder to square up also tend to get more swings and misses.

 

What this means for Stewart is that he has enough ability to get weak contact from minor leaguers, but a complete lack of MLB projection against higher-quality hitters. Either his stuff and/or command improves, or he doesn't succeed in MLB. 

    • glunn, Deduno Abides and d-mac like this

Stewart is such an interesting prospect.  He has all the tools you want out of a pitcher, but cannot seem to strike out people.  Strikeouts are not required to be successful, but sure do help.  I would like to know the percentage of solid contact against him over his career.  It must be very low.  It will be interesting to see how he fares against MLB prospect talent moving forward.  Hopefully, he does learn a swing and miss pitch over the next few years.  He does not need to become a heavy strikeout guy, but needs keep hitters honest out there or the top talents will start teeing off on him, I would imagine.  

    • glunn likes this

Pitchers do have the ability to influence quality of contact; those that are easy to square up tend not to make the Majors. The problem for Stewart, at the MLB level anyway, is that pitchers need to get some strikeouts too, otherwise even weak contact will add up to a lot of baserunners as a simple function of arithmetic.

Plus, strikeouts are positively correlated with weak contact. In other words, pitchers that are harder to square up also tend to get more swings and misses.

What this means for Stewart is that he has enough ability to get weak contact from minor leaguers, but a complete lack of MLB projection against higher-quality hitters. Either his stuff and/or command improves, or he doesn't succeed in MLB.


I concur. Mlb hitters are too good. Likely he never makes it.
    • d-mac likes this
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JaleelWhite FanClub
Apr 07 2017 09:48 AM

 

Today is the third day... it's 'draft' is in the Adopt-A-Prospect 2017 Forum.

 

Thanks. It sounds like I better start scanning the EST rosters, huh?

    • glunn likes this
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bluechipper
Apr 07 2017 10:42 AM

 

Gordon at SS. Vielma at 2b. It will be interesting how these two share the middle of the infield over the balance of 2017.

Hopefully Gordon gets SS at least 75% or so of the time. The last thing the Twins need to do is develop another 2B.

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FormerMinnasotan
Apr 07 2017 10:46 AM

I concur. Mlb hitters are too good. Likely he never makes it.

Without the ability to strike anyone out and having control/command issues Stewart will not succeed. Just look at Jose Berrios last year. MLB hitters will make Stewart pitch to them and when he does he will get crushed. You cannot be successful long term if your plan is to be the next Aaron Cook or Nick Blackburn with poor command/control.
    • d-mac likes this

Stewart has been a bust for a while now. This doesn't change that.Kind of lackluster for opening day, but what can you do with the rain outs. Thanks for the article! 

Life is better when there is a minor league report to read.  Thanks, Seth.

    • Seth Stohs likes this

What is the status of Zach Jones and Lewis Thorpe. Will either get enough work to shine in the minors this year?