Twins Daily Draft Preview
Image courtesy of Brock BeauchampDRAFT SLOTS AND POOL
Each draft pick has a specific dollar amount assigned to it, but it’s not as simple as just drafting a player in that spot and him getting all the dollars tied to the pick. The team and player can agree to any signing bonus and that money goes against the cap. As long as the entire draft class stays under the limit, there are no penalties.
There are a few exceptions: If a player doesn’t sign, the team loses value assigned to that pick. For example, if the Twins fail to sign the first overall pick, their draft pool would be reduced to $6,386,100. Additionally, the cap for all picks for rounds 11-40 is $100,000. A team who signs a player for more than $100,000 will have the excess amount count against the cap. For example, if the Twins sign their 11th round pick for $600,000, $500,000 will count against the cap.
1st overall (round 1): $7,770,700
35th overall (comp round A): $1,935,300
37th overall (round 2): $1,846,100
76th overall (round 3): $755,500
106th overall (round 4): $507,000
136th overall (round 5): $378,700
166th overall (round 6): $283,300
196th overall (round 7): $220,700
226th overall (round 8): $174,400
256th overall (round 9): $148,000
286th overall (round 10): $137,100
As of today, there are a handful of names still being talked about as potential 1-1 candidates. We will go in depth on these players as the draft gets closer. But the list of names contains college arms righty Kyle Wright and lefty Brendan McKay, preps uberprospect Hunter Greene, shortstop/centerfielder Royce Lewis and pitcher Shane Baz, and college first baseman Pavin Smith.
Handicapping the race to go first three weeks early probably has Wright in the lead as McKay fades. Greene, who hasn’t pitched in a game for over a month, and only threw 28 innings all year, remains an ultra-intriguing prospect, but is surrounded with question marks. Lewis has some questions about his bat, but is a premium athlete who oozes potential. Baz has as much helium as anyone in the draft and. Smith is a left-handed bat who plays first well defensively, but has some questions about his ability to hit left-handed pitching.
Having the largest draft pool provides the Twins with some flexibility to get creative. But pump your brakes before your mind wanders too far. This isn’t going to be like the Correa/McCullers/Ruiz year or the Bregman/Tucker/Cameron year. The reason is simple: The rules changed.
The Twins still have the pick worth the most, yes; but the value has been reduced (by almost $1.25 million) while picks 5-9 have all increased by over a million dollars. By bringing the values of these picks much closer together, it has narrowed the advantage in two ways. First, the team picking first, in this case the Twins, can’t just skim a million and a half off of their pick value and still be able to offer more than the second team could. And on the flip side of that, teams that pick after the Twins could get creative with their pools and be able to come up with more than the first pick value. That would have been very tough to do before.
That doesn’t mean the Twins can’t still get creative. I anticipate they’ll still be able to save a considerable amount of money to turn a 6th round pick into a 2nd round value or an 11th or 12th round pick into a 5th round value (or something like that). The ability to get creative remains, but the chance to manipulate their pool into getting two Top 7 talents doesn’t.
OTHER POTENTIAL TARGETS
Two names that are intriguing in the 30s are Clark Schmidt, a right-handed pitcher from South Carolina who is missing the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and Seth Romero, a lefty who was kicked off the team at Houston. Both are first round talents and just might be worth the risk with that “extra” pick. The Twins drafted Tyler Benninghoff in the 11th round last year knowing that he’d need Tommy John surgery. And the Twins know Romero well, though it’s unclear whether or not he’ll make their final draft board.
Some other names that should receive consideration: Heliot Ramos, a Puerto Rican outfielder, Jacob Heatherly, a prep lefty from Alabama, Brent Rooker, an outfielder from Mississippi State and Greg Deichmann, a third baseman from LSU. The Twins drafted both Rooker and Deichmann last summer.
Though the draft is quickly approaching, many teams haven’t gotten a great read on contract demands yet and that doesn’t happen for many players until the final days before the draft. But the Twins have always been one of the best teams in the league at being able to gauge a player’s signability. Both Stephen Gonsalves and Kolton Kendrick are recent players to have dropped, and while many teams passed because of signability issues, the Twins were able to draft confidently because their area scouts did the work and knew the players would sign. Though their professional careers haven’t taken the same paths, the organization impressed many others with the homework they had done.
And you better believe the Sean Johnson-lead scouting department will have all their homework done this year too.
- brvama, Cory Engelhardt, Dance with Disco Dan and 1 other like this