• Nishioka Gets Another Shot

    Sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the minors at the outset of this season was a fairly obvious decision, given his immense struggles as a rookie last year. Leaving him there for the majority of the summer has also been an easy choice, as his play in Triple-A has offered no indication that he belongs in the big leagues.

    That remains true now, after a "hot" month of July in which Nishioka batted .298 but posted a meager .702 OPS, but nevertheless the Twins elected to bring him back to the majors when Sunday's Danny Valencia trade opened up a roster spot.

    And you know what? I believe the club made the right choice in recalling the embattled infielder, and I'll take it a step further: I think Nishioka should be starting regularly for Minnesota from here on out.

    Why? For the same reason that Nick Blackburn should keep taking the hill every fifth day, regardless of his performance. Right now, the Twins need to be completely focused on 2013 and beyond, and like it or not, the organization will be paying those two players – who happen to slot in at positions of great need – many millions of dollars next season.

    There's an inclination to label both Nishioka and Blackburn sunk costs, and ultimately that's what they may amount to next year: $8 million in wasted payroll with virtually no return. But that's an ugly scenario and the Twins have plenty of incentive to avoid it. In a late-season situation such as this, where wins and losses don't matter, there's an opportunity to take a long look at both players and try figuring out a way to get some value from them going forward.

    Believe me, I have close to zero faith in that happening, especially in the case of Nishioka. He just doesn't seem to have the tools to succeed as a major-league player. But a lengthy audition in a low-pressure environment with daily access to Joe Vavra and other coaches strikes me as a worthwhile last-ditch effort. Presuming Brian Dozier continues to start on the other side, Nishi won't be stealing playing time from anyone of import.

    When a 28-year-old hits .298/.336/.365 over a month in Triple-A, it's generally not something worth getting excited about. In the case of Nishioka, it is sadly the most positive thing he's done since coming over from Japan. That's the splinter of hope Twins fans must cling to with the failed import, so it's not hard to see why most have summarily dismissed the idea of his playing any role in the club's future, despite his contract.

    How nice it would be if he showed us something over the next two months to make us believe otherwise.
    This article was originally published in blog: Nishioka Gets Another Shot started by Nick Nelson
    Comments 102 Comments
    1. DPJ's Avatar
      DPJ -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      I'd argue we haven't been helping Dozier's development for about 2 and a half months. It's too late to rectify it now probably, but the guy hasn't been making much of any progress for a long time now. Just because we're bad isn't an excuse to continue that method.

      Hopefully that was better articulated.
      Maybe Dozier just isn't a major league player, instead of looking for improvments the Twins are getting a good look if this kid is even a major league starter. Even with his .890 OPS and plus defense (RP) this could just be the case of a guy that can't hack it. Granted I'd still give him all of next season before the guy is written off, but I personally nothing wrong with throwing a kid in the deep end and seeing if he's gonna sink or swim.
    1. iatwins's Avatar
      iatwins -
      Good lord, Reusse is murdering both Nishioka and the front office on 1500 right now. Actually pretty entertaining.
    1. DPJ's Avatar
      DPJ -
      Quote Originally Posted by iatwins View Post
      Good lord, Reusse is murdering both Nishioka and the front office on 1500 right now. Actually pretty entertaining.
      Well it is one of the most colossal mistakes in scouting I've ever seen. How the hell do you give up 15 million dollars for a guy that can't play baseball? He can't hit, he can't field...he has no tools besides speed that would lead you to believe he could be an everyday player.
    1. snepp's Avatar
      snepp -
      Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
      Well it is one of the most colossal mistakes in scouting I've ever seen. How the hell do you give up 15 million dollars for a guy that can't play baseball? He can't hit, he can't field...he has no tools besides speed that would lead you to believe he could be an everyday player.
      He sure had a sexy batting average that one season in Japan though.
    1. DPJ's Avatar
      DPJ -
      Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
      He sure had a sexy batting average that one season in Japan though.
      BABIP'ed the Twins outta 15 million.
    1. John Bonnes's Avatar
      John Bonnes -
      Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
      Well it is one of the most colossal mistakes in scouting I've ever seen. How the hell do you give up 15 million dollars for a guy that can't play baseball? He can't hit, he can't field...he has no tools besides speed that would lead you to believe he could be an everyday player.
      FWIW, I don't think it was the Twins scouting that let them down on this one. I know some folks who saw the Twins scouts reports on Nishi, and they say it was pretty accurate. I assume it didn't say "AA Player" in big red letters, but it did estimate his skills appropriately.

      I've also heard from some people that the problem with the Nishi signing was that the tail was wagging the dog - the Twins wanted to expand to Japan for revenue reasons and Nishi (and the pitcher they just lost out on) were their attempts to do so.
    1. SBG's Avatar
      SBG -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      FWIW, I don't think it was the Twins scouting that let them down on this one. I know some folks who saw the Twins scouts reports on Nishi, and they say it was pretty accurate. I assume it didn't say "AA Player" in big red letters, but it did estimate his skills appropriately.

      I've also heard from some people that the problem with the Nishi signing was that the tail was wagging the dog - the Twins wanted to expand to Japan for revenue reasons and Nishi (and the pitcher they just lost out on) were their attempts to do so.
      If the Twins pretty much knew that he was worthless and still paid $15 million to get him, does that make the situation any better? I think that makes me even more unhappy with this trainwreck.
    1. Boom Boom's Avatar
      Boom Boom -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      FWIW, I don't think it was the Twins scouting that let them down on this one. I know some folks who saw the Twins scouts reports on Nishi, and they say it was pretty accurate. I assume it didn't say "AA Player" in big red letters, but it did estimate his skills appropriately.

      I've also heard from some people that the problem with the Nishi signing was that the tail was wagging the dog - the Twins wanted to expand to Japan for revenue reasons and Nishi (and the pitcher they just lost out on) were their attempts to do so.
      This is interesting stuff, John, but if all this is true then I like the Nishioka signing even less now.
    1. JB_Iowa's Avatar
      JB_Iowa -
      Quote Originally Posted by SBG View Post
      If the Twins pretty much knew that he was worthless and still paid $15 million to get him, does that make the situation any better? I think that makes me even more unhappy with this trainwreck.
      I don't think hat they knew he was worthless. I think that this was a MASSIVE ORGANIZATIONAL FAILURE -- and that's why no one was fired over it.

      I suspect that there was some failure in scouting -- my bet is that the scouts raised some concerns but that they didn't put up a "stop sign" on signing him. And then, I think that the desire to gain an entree into the Japanese market overrode any "red flags" that the scouts may have raised.

      A failure at all levels in the process. We can only hope that they've learned a lesson from it and that they keep marketing out of the baseball decisions.
    1. DPJ's Avatar
      DPJ -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      I've also heard from some people that the problem with the Nishi signing was that the tail was wagging the dog - the Twins wanted to expand to Japan for revenue reasons and Nishi (and the pitcher they just lost out on) were their attempts to do so.
      Sweet Jesus...
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
      Sweet Jesus...
      I couldn't see that happening with Ryan at the helm, no way would he allow that much money to be tossed aside for a Japan PR effort/what not.
      I'm pretty sure the Rangers did the same thing, now they are stuck with a #3/#4 in Darvish who they shelled out over 100 mil for.
    1. DPJ's Avatar
      DPJ -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      I couldn't see that happening with Ryan at the helm, no way would he allow that much money to be tossed aside for a Japan PR effort/what not.
      I'm pretty sure the Rangers did the same thing, now they are stuck with a #3/#4 in Darvish who they shelled out over 100 mil for.
      1. Ryan was part of the organization when they signed Nishi, please stop acting like everything wrong with this organization is/was Smith's fault.

      2. Please tell me you're joking about Darvish?
    1. Paul's Avatar
      Paul -
      Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
      You can only keep playing Nishi until he starts demoralizing pitchers...We've got some fairly inexperienced pitchers out there. Having to overcome fielding errors is probably helpful to a point but at some point it has to demoralize the pithcer -- and the team.

      Right on brother. It's not very often that I am utterly baffled by the Twins management activities. But I am here.

      IMO, this is a repeat of the middle of the mistake trail that caused the debacle of 2011.
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
      I don't think hat they knew he was worthless. I think that this was a MASSIVE ORGANIZATIONAL FAILURE -- and that's why no one was fired over it.

      I suspect that there was some failure in scouting -- my bet is that the scouts raised some concerns but that they didn't put up a "stop sign" on signing him. And then, I think that the desire to gain an entree into the Japanese market overrode any "red flags" that the scouts may have raised.

      A failure at all levels in the process. We can only hope that they've learned a lesson from it and that they keep marketing out of the baseball decisions.
      Yep, exactly. Dave St Peter can't fire himself in this non-knee-jerk organization. But I'm not sure if they've learned their lesson. Perhaps that's why "numbers guy", Bill Smith was left on the payroll and kept in a hermetically sealed room- to continue having fun with numbers so he and DSP can scheme up a new marketing coup in [insert country here].
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
      1. Ryan was part of the organization when they signed Nishi, please stop acting like everything wrong with this organization is/was Smith's fault.

      2. Please tell me you're joking about Darvish?
      1. Ryan wasn't the GM! Smith was! At the end of the day it's the GM's decision on who to sign, who to trade etc. If the GM doesn't have the final say then you are in a Steinbrenner type situation, and from what I have seen the Pohlads usually don't get super involved in player decisions (other then oking the payroll increase to sign Mauer)

      2. 4.57 ERA is worth 20 million a year? I get he was "sexy" coming over, but he is suddenly looking like a majority of the other pitchers that came from Japan, they are able to fool hitters for a bit since there isn't a whole lot of tape/scouting report on them, and then people begin to figure them out. In his last 10 starts he has a 5.94 ERA. He's giving up a lot of hits and walks. Not saying he will be a Nishi level bust, just that he won't live up to the money they spent to get him as he settles in as a #3/#4.
    1. DPJ's Avatar
      DPJ -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      1. Ryan wasn't the GM! Smith was! At the end of the day it's the GM's decision on who to sign, who to trade etc. If the GM doesn't have the final say then you are in a Steinbrenner type situation, and from what I have seen the Pohlads usually don't get super involved in player decisions (other then oking the payroll increase to sign Mauer)

      2. 4.57 ERA is worth 20 million a year? I get he was "sexy" coming over, but he is suddenly looking like a majority of the other pitchers that came from Japan, they are able to fool hitters for a bit since there isn't a whole lot of tape/scouting report on them, and then people begin to figure them out. In his last 10 starts he has a 5.94 ERA. He's giving up a lot of hits and walks. Not saying he will be a Nishi level bust, just that he won't live up to the money they spent to get him as he settles in as a #3/#4.
      1. But if the call came down from the Pohlads to sign him cause it would increase revenue from Japan how were the Pohlads not involved?

      3. Yu is/was the best pitcher to ever come outta Japan...EVER. You don't sign him a guy for a 100 to get some Yen.
    1. one_eyed_jack's Avatar
      one_eyed_jack -
      Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
      A failure at all levels in the process. We can only hope that they've learned a lesson from it and that they keep marketing out of the baseball decisions.

      ---Agree with this. My fear is that they'll learn a lesson, but it will be the wrong lesson.

      This move was a departure from recent tradition. More money, higher risk. In a lot of ways, it was exactly the type of move the fans complained that the team refused to make, opting instead for low cost, low risk, low reward guys.

      So now that it has completely blown up in their face, I'm afraid the conclusion will be that it's better go back to sifting through the bargain bin for Mike Lambs and Tony Batistas and ignoring Japan completely.

      Hopefully I'm wrong and they'll do a post-mortem on what went wrong here and how to do better next time so that instead of another Nishioka, we get, say, another Tadahito Iguchi.
    1. crarko's Avatar
      crarko -
      That's a good observation. They tried playing with the big kids, and it didn't work the first time. Don't stop trying, just do better next time.
    1. PopRiveter's Avatar
      PopRiveter -
      I think "MASSIVE ORGANIZATIONAL FAILURE" is a bit of an overstatement when we're talking about a bust signing that consumes only 5% of your payroll. They are getting embarrassing production from the guy, but they are only paying "competant, established player" salary. The FO should be as embarrassed as Nishi is at this swing-and-miss, but it'll only cost $3mil next year to make it go away, right? It's not my money, so I'm more inclined to mourn the at bats and innings they give him than the money.
    1. USAFChief's Avatar
      USAFChief -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      FWIW, I don't think it was the Twins scouting that let them down on this one. I know some folks who saw the Twins scouts reports on Nishi, and they say it was pretty accurate. I assume it didn't say "AA Player" in big red letters, but it did estimate his skills appropriately.

      I've also heard from some people that the problem with the Nishi signing was that the tail was wagging the dog - the Twins wanted to expand to Japan for revenue reasons and Nishi (and the pitcher they just lost out on) were their attempts to do so.
      I have a hard time buying any this. For one thing, how much add'l revenue could the Twins reasonably expect from Japan?

      It also doesn't seem to jive with the "Twins way" of doing things.


      http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...3.html?refer=y

      I think the simplest explanation is often the best. In this case, they convinced themselves JJ Hardy had to go, to get "quicker" and "more athletic" in the middle infield, and they thought Nishioka could provide that, at a minor cost savings to boot. As it turned out, Nishioka hasn't been able to play major league baseball. He wouldn't be the first, and won't be the last time a scout(s) missed on a player.
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