Gleeman & the Geek Ep 50: Waving the White Flag

Did I hear correctly that Liriano is not a headcase?

I think there was a `10-12 minute discussion on that very topic.

After listening to this podcast again, I guess I can conclude that I am a non-analytical person. I couldn't disagree more with the notion that Liriano is not a headcase.

Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.

Originally Posted by jeffk

Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.

Part of it might be that he's struggling with his mechanics more when pitching out of the stretch.

For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.

Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.

Originally Posted by snepp

Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.

Right, just about every pitcher is somewhat worse with runners on. But the difference with bases empty and with runners on for Liriano would indicate that either having runners on gets in his head, or pitching out of the stretch makes it more difficult for him to locate his pitches. Or, most likely, some of both.

Liriano has a UHR of 96.8 out of a scale of 100. League average is 21.4 for pitchers, so he is wayyyy ahead of the curve here.

Originally Posted by @_2244

Liriano has a UHR of 96.8 out of a scale of 100. League average is 21.4 for pitchers, so he is wayyyy ahead of the curve here.

What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?

Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.

edit: Son of a bitch...

Attachment 1570

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?

Bingo.

Originally Posted by rocketpig

Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.

edit: Son of a bitch...

Attachment 1570

Will the chicken help him keep his balance, reducing the chance of falling over?

The point isn't that Liriano isn't a headcase, the point is that giving up a HR in that game is not PROOF that he is a headcase. That when he gives up runs, it is not necessarily because he is a headcase. That was the point.....

Either way, another good episode.

the occasional HR isn't the reason, it's the sudden inability to find the strike zone.