• The Twins 2013 Payroll Crunch

    by
    John Bonnes
    Published on 07-09-2012 06:59 PM
    73 Comments Comments
    How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower.

    According to USAToday, the Minnesota Twins dropped their payroll $18.5M from last year ($112M) to this year ($94M). And while the mantra coming out of Target Field is that “payroll isn’t that important” ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching?

    That’s the bad news, but it’s old bad news.

    The worse (and new) news is that the team is again in last place and attendance is down again. Would that mean further payroll cuts?
    If it does, there are only so deep they can cut, because barring some trades, a quick-and-dirty analysis shows the Twins are committed to at least a $76M payroll. The back-of-the-napkin details are on the right.

    If the Twins don’t cut payroll at all, that gives them just $18M to put towards acquiring two or three starting pitchers. And if they do? Then you can expect a lot more of what we’ve seen this year: cycling through AAA starting pitchers in the hopes they can find someone who sticks. Because AAA starting pitchers will be all they can afford.

    I suspect it also means that any fantasies of hanging onto Francisco Liriano. At the very least, it makes it difficult to imagine the Twins offering him a $12.5M one-year contract to make sure the Twins get draft picks as he walks as a free agent. That much liquid payroll can’t be sucked up by just one player where there are so many gaps in the rotation.

    That is, if there is any available. If the Twins cut payroll again, Twins fans could face the very grim reality of watching a starting rotation that is actually worse that this years squad, which ranks 29th in ERA in the majors.

    How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. But low enough.
    This article was originally published in blog: The Twins 2013 Payroll Crunch started by John Bonnes
    Comments 73 Comments
    1. YLT's Avatar
      YLT - 07-10-2012, 01:28 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
      Let's say we sign one of them for 5/90. I think most of us would agree that a lot of what we have in the minor league projects to be at the big leagues by 2015.

      That still leaves 3 years of that 5 year contract.
      Have the Twins ever spent 5 years / $90 million on a FA starting pitcher? None of those top level starting pitcher FAs would want to come here anyway.

      I'm very interested to see if the Twins are able to shop Morneau to any extent. Hell, I'd be happy to see a team simply eat his contract - no C level prospects needed. The idea of bundling Liriano w/ Morneau is interesting, though that's a pretty specific need that I doubt many teams have.
    1. amjgt's Avatar
      amjgt - 07-10-2012, 02:18 PM
      Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Cardinals
    1. amjgt's Avatar
      amjgt - 07-10-2012, 02:21 PM
      As for "Have the Twins ever spent 5 years / $90 million on a FA starting pitcher?"

      No.

      But, I don't think the Twins have ever been so frustrated with the SP situation. If the Twins can clear Morneau's $$$, I think they go after a top 3 FA SP. Clearing Morneau is the key.

      The offense will be just fine without Morneau, and you could probably argue that it might get better if you insert a Replacement Level 1B into the mix
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard - 07-10-2012, 02:33 PM
      If the Twins roster remains unchanged between now and the end of the year, the team payroll will be $99,676,000 (assuming that Joe Nathan's buyout was, as stated previously, on last year's books).

      As players are activated from the disabled list - and other players are sent down - that number should drop. Regardless, the number for this year is, in fact, under $100 million.

      The formatting is not great, but you can view it all here. I have also not added contract details for each player, but for most guys that have split time between the major and minors, you can figure out their prorated salary like this: PrS = (S/183 * D) with S being their yearly salary ($480k being the minimum) and D being their days of service time.
    1. Craig in MN's Avatar
      Craig in MN - 07-10-2012, 02:34 PM
      The Twins aren't going to sign an elite free agent pitchers, but there are a ton of the next level guys this year. They gave Willingham 3/25 this offseason, which was totally out of character...they could do 3/30 for the right pitcher, as they certainly have the need and the payroll room. I don't even think they'll do that though. My money is on trading Span for an experienced starter. TB will be loosing Upton in CF and doesn't have an obvious replacement, and Shields is getting more expensive and money is always tight there. That seems like a decent start for trade talks, and it's a lot less risky than signing a pitcher. Revere would move to CF and the Twins could sign a stopgap OF to play (with Mastriani) until Hicks, Benson or Arcia are ready.

      That would likely leave the Twins starting with Sheilds, Blackburn, Diamond, <free agent> and the best of a bunch of AAA/AA guys to fill out the rotation. That free agent could be Scot Baker but could just as easily be some bargain bin arm or a decent pitcher if they want to keep payroll steady. Hendriks, Gibson, Walters, Devries, Wimmers, Albers, Darnell, Hermson, etc would probably all be trying to earn their way out of Rochester throughout the next couple seasons. That's not a great rotation, but better than this year, and there's enough talent in the minors to give the rotation some hope.
    1. Fire Dan Gladden's Avatar
      Fire Dan Gladden - 07-10-2012, 02:43 PM
      Does anybody else realize we are not the only team looking for pitching? All things being equal, who is going to come here?

      The Twins will not get a top tier or 2nd tier FA pitcher. Any pitcher they do bring in will be overpaid (see Matt Capps and Jason Marquis). At least that will give all the haters something else to complain about.
    1. YLT's Avatar
      YLT - 07-10-2012, 03:52 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
      Does anybody else realize we are not the only team looking for pitching? All things being equal, who is going to come here?

      The Twins will not get a top tier or 2nd tier FA pitcher. Any pitcher they do bring in will be overpaid (see Matt Capps and Jason Marquis). At least that will give all the haters something else to complain about.
      Agreed. Just because the Twins have the money doesn't mean those 2-3 (Hamels, Grienke and maybe Peavy) top tier guys are going to sign with a cellar dweller. It's a little harsh to say that the Twins couldn't land a 2nd tier guy as there are more of them in this year's FA class than in recent past. All tier 1 and 2 guys are going to be overpaid - that's just how it works out. If the Twins really are looking to cut payroll then they best roll with whatever sticks against the wall from AAA and maybe hope to luck out on a budget-level arm or two for the time being. It's hard to build a future contending team when you keep throwing money at the Jason Marquis' and Nick Blackburn's of the world or under-utilize high-leverage situation guys like Capps. I dislike everything about the Capps' deals but even more infuriating is how much he makes to pitch 60 innings a year. "Closers" are some of the worst ways to spend money in my opinion - especially a supposed "born closer" of Matt Capps caliber. That was off topic but I needed to get it off my chest.
    1. thrylos98's Avatar
      thrylos98 - 07-10-2012, 05:49 PM
      Based on the free agents that are out there (Both Hamels and Greinke have been called "Head Cases", as well, in the past.) and what it will take to sign them (and the Twins' correctly will not offer a multi-year deal,) A 1yr $12.5 M offer to Liriano is a no-brainer. Even if he takes it, which is unlikely. This team cannot build the rotation with free agents. This is why it is imperative to trade Span, Morneau, Carroll or whomever else (Hicks?) can bring a solid MLB-ready young SP or too. Then there will be plenty of $ left to sign a decent FA (not a bottom feeder like Marquis and the other TR SP signings of lore - Livan/Ponson/etc ) for $6-7M for a couple years and offer something for Baker. They do need a couple more or 3 SPs via trade/FA, to add to 2-3 of Hendriks/Diamond/De Vries/Deduno/Duensing/Gibson to have a chance next season. And Blackburn should be gone or in the pen. And if Gardy does not like it, they should be no Gardy (and really there should be no Gardy for the good of the team, but...)
    1. Kobs's Avatar
      Kobs - 07-10-2012, 07:08 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Mchans24 View Post
      Carroll? I think he is a good pickup
      Why? At least Tolbert was cheap.
    1. notoriousgod71's Avatar
      notoriousgod71 - 07-10-2012, 07:39 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by striker_86 View Post
      Bring back Baker (not for 9.5 though). Hope Gibson is ready, and sign a legitimate starter with the rest of the $$.

      Our rotation would be

      1. New Ace
      2. Diamond
      3. Baker
      4. Gibson
      5. Blackburn or whoever works out in spring training
      That is literally four guys you can't depend on and possibly five depending on who our new "ace" is. I really don't see how that's any better than this year.
    1. Fireflyfan's Avatar
      Fireflyfan - 07-10-2012, 10:07 PM
      I've seen that Tampa Bay Rays might be willing to trade James Shields. Shields is signed for the next 2 seasons at 9 million and 12 million. He's durable and affordable. I don't know what they would want back for him. We have some outfield prospects and they could use some infeild help. Maybe Alexi Casilla and a couple of prospects could get it done.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave - 07-10-2012, 10:17 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Fireflyfan View Post
      I've seen that Tampa Bay Rays might be willing to trade James Shields. Shields is signed for the next 2 seasons at 9 million and 12 million. He's durable and affordable. I don't know what they would want back for him. We have some outfield prospects and they could use some infeild help. Maybe Alexi Casilla and a couple of prospects could get it done.
      If the Rays needed OF help maybe they would make a perfect partner for a straight up Shields for Span straight up swap, but to be honest that doesn't really make sense for either team.

      Also Casilla has very little if any trade value at this point and giving up a top prospect(plus more likely) for two years of a guy like Shields is not something a club like the Twins should be making at this point.
    1. Craig in MN's Avatar
      Craig in MN - 07-10-2012, 11:10 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      If the Rays needed OF help maybe they would make a perfect partner for a straight up Shields for Span straight up swap, but to be honest that doesn't really make sense for either team.
      It doesn't makes sense if the teams planning on a full scale rebuild or all out push to compete. Neither team really seems interested in either of those though. If they are trying to compete (at all) short term, it makes sense for them to try to trade decent players for other decent players that fill more significant holes. Even at that, it's not at all a perfect trade, but it kind of makes sense. Honestly, I don't think I'd do the trade if offered, but I'm not sure. But it fills holes and in some ways it gives both sides more financial flexibility.

      I don't see the Twins trading Span for anyone that isn't going to contribute right away. They just aren't going to go into a full rebuild (especially after extending Doumit). That means they need to do something major about the rotation. They aren't going to sign multiple good free agent pitchers. Terry Ryan will look to resign someone (Pavano/Baker/Liriano) or do trades instead. If they end up wanting to trade for a starter, I don't think there is a better option to trade to make that happen than Span. It might not be with Tampa, though.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest - 07-10-2012, 11:39 PM
      I would respect the Rays too much to trade for Shields. We don't want them to pull a Kazmir on us.

      Hopefully they will take a close look at the data. His fastball has maintained velocity, but he throws it less often this year (27% compared to 42% career). The difference in speed between his cutter and fastball is closer than they have been in any other time during his career. His FIP still looks good. His BABIP may be high but it was in 2010 also. Is this the guy we want the Twins to invest in? Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick, but it will be less value than what we will have to give up to get Shields.
    1. Top Gun's Avatar
      Top Gun - 07-10-2012, 11:40 PM
      Morneau will hit .300 and 40 hrs next seson and everyone will be happy.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave - 07-10-2012, 11:59 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick,
      The Twins wouldn't lose a pick..
    1. glunn's Avatar
      glunn - 07-11-2012, 12:11 AM
      The Rays are great at trading guys who look a lot better than they are. If they want to trade Shields, there is probably something wrong with him.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest - 07-11-2012, 12:42 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      The Twins wouldn't lose a pick..
      If the Twins sign someone like Sanchez, wouldn't the Marlins get two picks (one from Twins) as long as they offered a compensation level contract?

      My assumption was that if they offered a pitcher a multiyear contract at Shields level salary, the pitcher they targeted would require compensation.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan - 07-11-2012, 08:03 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      If the Twins sign someone like Sanchez, wouldn't the Marlins get two picks (one from Twins) as long as they offered a compensation level contract?

      My assumption was that if they offered a pitcher a multiyear contract at Shields level salary, the pitcher they targeted would require compensation.
      Nope, new CBA. The Marlins would have to offer him arb of 1/12.5 and then they'd get a pick right in front of the Twins, but the Twins would keep their pick.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan - 07-11-2012, 08:04 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
      Morneau will hit .300 and 40 hrs next seson and everyone will be happy.
      hope so!
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