• Are Gibson, Hicks Destined For Rochester?

    Some of the most intriguing spring training battles for the Twins are the race for the starting center fielder job and for the last spot in the rotation. Two of the best prospects for the Twins are in the middle of these battles and they both have been putting together decent starts this spring. But even if the rest of the spring goes great for Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson, they could be destined to start the year in Rochester.

    There are a few different reasons to think that the Twins will be patient with these two young players. irst, there is opportunity. The team isn't suppose to be contending in 2013 or maybe even 2014. This means there is no rush to get either of these men to the big leagues. They can both be given the opportunity to find success at Triple-A.

    Second, long-term control and money is a factor.

    If the team waits until a few months into the season, they can control these players for an extra season. There are also rules in place for players that get called up in the first couple months of the season to let them reach arbitration as a super two player. The Twins could avoid some of this hassle by letting other players take their spot on the roster until the middle part of the year.

    Finally, each player's history suggests a slower immersion could be beneficial. Hicks has a history of slow starts when he advances to a new level. He played all of last season at the Double-A level so making a two level jump could be hard on him. The team has been very patient with him up until this point and it makes a lot of sense for the club to continue their patient ways.

    The Twins have been clear that Gibson will be on an innings limit this season. It is his first full year back from Tommy John surgery and it is important to be cautious with a young arm. If the Twins want to control his innings at the beginning of the year, it will be easier to do this in Rochester. They don't want a player in the major league starting rotation that has to be pulled early to keep his innings down.

    Within the organization, there might be some debate. While the front office might want Hicks and Gibson to get a little more experience, the manager might not be in a position to wait for the future. Ron Gardenhire is in the last year of his deal and he can't really afford for the club to get off to a slow start. He has said that he wants Hicks to have a shot to start and Gibson has a brighter future than some of the other rotation options.

    With the moves the Twins have made this offseason, their farm system is considered one of the best in the game. Most of their top-level talent hasn't made appearance above the Double-A level. For now, it looks like a waiting game as these players work their way through the minor leagues.

    So when will the next winning team grace fans at Target Field?

    The estimated arrival time for Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Byron Buxton might not be until 2014, 2015 or 2016. If those players make up the core of the next winning Twins team, it might be best to still have multiple years of control over Gibson and Hicks.

    There are going to be reasons to keep Gibson and Hicks with the big league team for the start of the year. However, the reasons to keep them in the minor leagues might outweigh those that are in favor of keeping them up.

    So what do you think? If Gibson and Hicks earn the jobs, should they start the year in Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
    This article was originally published in blog: Gibson, Hicks might be destined for Rochester started by Cody Christie
    Comments 128 Comments
    1. panolo's Avatar
      panolo -
      Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
      Look, Gibson isn't going to pitch more than 140-150 innings and that is smart. Would you really rather have him finish the season out by not pitching for all of September?
      I'm fine with that. Rest can't hurt unless we are in the pennant race and I don't like the chances this year.
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
      Why does this keep coming up? If Hicks starts with the Twins his service clock starts. By waiting 1 month... just 1... the Twins earn an extra year of control. If he starts with the Twins they will be idiots! It doesn't matter if he is the best CF in the league. It is a terrible business decision to bring him north right away and JR has to know it.

      fairweather, besides a year of control, the Twins also will get to see if Hicks can handle the next level. Hicks has struggled every level he's moved up, why is this (the absolute biggest jump in his career) going to be different? Why would Gibson start in the pen? What benefit does a guy coming off TJ have going to the pen to start the year after he's already thrown 100 innings? Answer: none. Gibson needs to start and will probably start in AAA to build into the season. Starting him with the Twins based on ST numbers is asinine. The Twins know better than that. Historically the Twins have been conservative with prospects and players and I expect nothing less this season.
      Just 1 month? is that a hard number or perhaps super 2 status is a percentage? say like 16% of players?
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      If Gibson is ready, how does AAA help him?
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
      And as for the quote, I also have a big problem with the "starting their clocks early" thinking. The reason being, if the player is ready and has shown or demonstrated that he is the best option, explain to me exactly how that clock is starting "early"?
      For the 10,000th time, it has nothing to do with being too "early" for the player or their readiness, and everything to do with their monetary compensation down the road. Good lord.
    1. USAFChief's Avatar
      USAFChief -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      For the 10,000th time, it has nothing to do with being too "early" for the player or their readiness, and everything to do with their monetary compensation down the road. Good lord.
      I thought it was all about the extra year of team control. Neither argument should be among top reasons for or against a player making the big leagues, but at least those promoting them should keep their story straight.
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
      I thought it was all about the extra year of team control. Neither argument should be among top reasons for or against a player making the big leagues, but at least those promoting them should keep their story straight.
      The amount of team control is what determines the amount of monetary compensation and when they'll be forced to pay it. Hand in hand, same thing.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      First, I would like to see Gibson pitch a season from April through September for once. There might be some value in that.

      Let me approach this from another angle, then. I think it would be good for this team to have the future making up a majority of the roster starting after the trade deadline. Gibson is a part of that future. Imagine what a Benson-Hicks-Arcia OF and a Plouffe-x-Dozier-Parmelee IF (with Mauer, Doumit, and Herrmann) would be like to see with a rotation of Gibson-Diamond-Worley-Hendriks-X (I guess Correia?) and a bullpen with Thielbar, Tonkin, Watts, Pugh, etc.??

      Wouldn't it be better to see the makeup of the 2014 roster together in 2013?
    1. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
      Oldgoat_MN -
      The estimated arrival time for Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Byron Buxton might not be until 2014, 2015 or 2016.
      IMHO: No chance to see Sano or Buxton in 2014 unless a rash of injuries forces Sano up. Absolutely no Buxton before September, 2015.

      With Gibson & Hicks in AAA the Twins could give Joe Benson, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries, etc., a final chance to show what they have before giving the position to the heir apparent.

      I'd start them both in Rochester. I'm guessing Ryan thinks so, too.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      And, yes, the Twins would have control of Gibson for another year. That doesn't mean much given his age, but I would hope that he is here for the long haul, so there is a slight added benefit from chilling and starting him slowly in Rochester, limiting his innings there.
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
      Wouldn't it be better to see the makeup of the 2014 roster together in 2013?
      If we're going on the assumption they're all worthwhile pieces, wouldn't it be better to have the bulk of that group together in 2019-2020 for an extra year rather than an extra month of taking lumps this year?
    1. Steve Lein's Avatar
      Steve Lein -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      For the 10,000th time, it has nothing to do with being too "early" for the player or their readiness, and everything to do with their monetary compensation down the road. Good lord.
      I know you have a personal hatred of me, but salary in 5 or 6 years just isn't going to matter to the extent the Twins should be worrying about it more than putting their best team out there day 1. Depending on if the player is "good" or "not good," that will get taken care of on the Twins own terms. As in, they'll sign them to an extension they are comfortable with before those final years ever come up (because he's "good"), or they'll just ride it out and cut their losses because they're not spending an inordinate amount of money on the guy anyway (because he's "not good").

      Drew Butera is getting more money this year because he's a Super Two, but are we complaining he's overpaid? (no, because he falls into the "not good" player category and we don't really care)

      Furthermore, are we complaining we didn't end up keeping Liriano? Casilla? ("not good" players)

      Would we have been pissed if they lost Mauer? Morneau? Cuddyer? Baker? or Span because of this?! ("good" players)

      Connect the dots. It's not that complicated. Certainly not to the extent you believe when attempting to belittle my opinions on the subject, and is exactly what Phil Mackey is getting at in that chat quoted earlier.
    1. Han Joelo's Avatar
      Han Joelo -
      First off, can a site admin maybe fix this thread--it appears in three different places with three different sets of comments. This one is the least easy to find but has the most comments by far.

      Second, I'm firmly in the camp that you bring the best guys north--sends a message to the players in the org. that if you have our back we'll have yours when the time is right. I mean, do you really want to have a bunch of lesser players on "scholarship?"

      Third, IMO, the Angels have screwed up royally with Trout so far. They spent enormous amounts of money to contend last year and then repressed their best player to save money? And then the law of unintended consequences took over--in order to make good they traded a bunch of prospects for Greinke and then knee-jerked and signed Hamilton this off-season. Think they would have signed him if they'd had a good or great playoff run? I'm not so sure. And now of course the league minimum re-up. That's probably not as big a deal but bears watching. At any rate, whether it is six years or five years from now, the Angels will be trying to sign Trout for record setting numbers, right as he enters his prime, whilst simultaneously paying gobs of money to Pujols to DH.

      Finally, as others have stated, Hicks will have Buxton breathing down his neck soon enough. Get his career started already.

      As for Gibson, if he's ready, give him a spot. Skip a start here and there to extend him as far into the season as possible. Better to be around Andy and Cuellar and Mauer than in Rochester as the ace.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      If we're going on the assumption they're all worthwhile pieces, wouldn't it be better to have the bulk of that group together in 2019-2020 for an extra year rather than an extra month of taking lumps this year?
      Yes and hopefully there are two WS championships by then!

      I am really not sure why there is *such* dispute about the benefits of not playing top prospects out of the gate this year, instead letting them develop (in Hicks' case--there CERTAINLY are a few things he can work on at the plate in AAA, and in Gibson's case--his innings limit) for a month or so. If the Twins had won 80 games last year like I predicted (!!!!), then I would be singing a different tune, I think (esp. with regard to Hicks).

      That said, Cole DeVries and Brandon Boggs/Wilkin Ramirez are decent replacements for a MONTH.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      And the "start-skipping" crowd . . . this is someone coming off a big injury, so I don't know if messing with routine is such a great idea vs. a 50 total innings limit over several starts in Rochester.
    1. Han Joelo's Avatar
      Han Joelo -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      If we're going on the assumption they're all worthwhile pieces, wouldn't it be better to have the bulk of that group together in 2019-2020 for an extra year rather than an extra month of taking lumps this year?
      Since we're talking about 2020, here are my dreams: House paid off. Comfortable salary at a job I love. Two boys half-way to their Mike Trout -like Opening Day debuts at Target Field. Justin Morneau just re-signed to DH for the Twins Thome style. Mauer holding down the fort at second base. Aaron Hicks traded to make room for Buxton, for a bevy a prospects that will form the core of the 2030 team that my boys will both be a part of. Ahh, 2030! Can't wait till two decades from now!
    1. ashburyjohn's Avatar
      ashburyjohn -
      Quote Originally Posted by panolo View Post
      I don't like the chances this year.
      Have you found someone who does?
    1. cmb0252's Avatar
      cmb0252 -
      I couldn't have said it better Wahl.

      When did playing well the first two weeks of spring training mean anything? Heck, when did playing well all of spring training ever mean anything? We are all excited to see our young guys but it's spring training!

      Hicks hasn't played higher than AA balls, Gibson is on a pitch count, and the Twins are most likely going to suck. IMO starting them in the minors doesn't only make sense for the future but for the present. It's spring training!
    1. snepp's Avatar
      snepp -
      Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
      Have you found someone who does?
      Dave St. Peter?
    1. snepp's Avatar
      snepp -
      Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
      I know you have a personal hatred of me,

      Certainly not to the extent you believe when attempting to belittle my opinions on the subject,

      Settle down, you're not being persecuted here.
    1. Han Joelo's Avatar
      Han Joelo -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      The amount of team control is what determines the amount of monetary compensation and when they'll be forced to pay it. Hand in hand, same thing.
      So, let's say B.J. Upton has a truly stupendous breakout year. Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many) would have been smarter to stash him in the minor leagues for a couple of more years, so as to have preserved his cost controlled prime? I have a fuzzy memory of him mashing in the playoffs as an unprimed 23 year old...

      Please rebut with an argument or examples that go beyond "You are an idiot if you don't see things my way." Here's a couple of lobs which might work out in your favor if you have the time to research. Cano and Ellsbury. Pending free agents. Are the Yanks/Sox better or worse off (or neither) based on how they handled the pre-arb years? I'm truly curious. Could the Yankees put off the looming mega-payday by one more year had they done things differently?
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