• Inefficient Managing of "Dollars and Years"

    In Twinsland, this offseason has been marked by a couple of trades that have been embraced by the community and a couple of free agent acquisitions that have been viciously attacked by a large portion of the fan base.

    Most of us love what Terry Ryan did with the Twins' only marketable surplus, center fielders. Moving Denard Span for Alex Meyer and then flipping Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May were classic Ryan moves, taking advantage of competitive teams' desire to win now in exchange for a youth movement.

    On the flip side of that coin, we've seen some questionable handling of the free agent market by the Twins front office. After losing out on the Baker sweepstakes early in the offseason, it appears that the front office reacted rashly and offered up two years to Kevin Correia, whose stat line last season is frighteningly close to that of a certain Jason Marquis in 2011 (88 ERA+ for Marquis for the Padres, 87 ERA+ for Correia for the Pirates). Before I flog that already bloodied horse for the thousandth time on this site, let's take a look at another part of the Twins roster that was completely ignored:

    The middle infield.

    Last season, Brian Dozier posted some rather abysmal numbers for the team (.234/.271/.332) before being sent back down to the minors to regain his stroke (and fielding, and patience, and probably a bit of his sanity). He was replaced by Pedro Florimon, who hasn't authoritatively hit a baseball since playing as a teenager in the Dominican Republic. They are coupled with Jamey Carroll, veteran steward of middle infields across MLB for the past decade. While I like Carroll as a player and think he brings a very steady hand to an organization that - dons Hat of Positivity - has scuffled with their middle infield options since the departure of JJ Hardy and Jason Bartlett, it cannot be ignored that Carroll is entering his age 39 season as a middle infielder, an area of baseball where very few players make it out of their mid 30s as productive players.

    All in all, Carroll would be a great player to have on a competitive team. He's steady, gets on base at a rather good clip, and is a nearly perfect player to come off the bench and spell the starters up the middle of the diamond. Which brings me to a few issues:

    1. The Twins aren't competitive, particularly in the middle infield. That means Carroll, like Nick Punto before him, is not being used in his natural role as a bench player with versatility.

    2. If Jamey Carroll receives 401 plate appearances in 2013, the Twins are on the hook for a $2 million player option in 2014. Given the Twins, uh, lack of expected production in the middle infield spots in 2013, those 401 plate appearances are nearly guaranteed, barring an injury to Jamey.

    3. The Twins have payroll flexibility. A lot of flexibility, as their adjusted 2013 payroll is on par with their payroll in the final years of the Metrodome.

    Most everyone agrees that the free agent market for the middle infield was lacking in quality players but that doesn't mean the cupboard was entirely bare and the Twins need middle infield help nearly as much as they need starting pitching. Despite that fact, the Twins failed to pursue any of the free agents available to them. Which, in turn, means that the Twins are likely to be forced to pay a 40-year-old Jamey Carroll $2 million in 2014. Add in the second year of the Correia contract at $5.5 million and you're looking at $7.5 million committed to large question marks in 2014. That's nearly 10% of the 2013 payroll as it stands now. Add in the rather inexplicable contract to Drew Butera, a historically bad hitter, and that number jumps over 10% of payroll.

    Is this guaranteed to be a failure by the Twins? No, most certainly not. Carroll is a quality player (right now, anyway) and there's a chance Correia will earn his money.

    But that's not the point, is it? The point is that a mid-market team such as the Twins has to be using their resources as intelligently as possible to fill in the gaps left by their minor league system at an above-average rate. By nearly anyone's standard, using 10% of their payroll to field a below average National League pitcher and a 40-year-old middle infielder is not the smartest use of available resources.

    By doing nothing to shore up the middle infield, Ryan is essentially writing off $2 million in 2014 that could have gone to a younger player that could help the middle infield enormously and wouldn't be such a risk to decline overnight as they pass the start of their fourth decade on planet earth. A 29-year-old Ronny Cedeno just signed with the Cardinals for $1.15 million after posting a .259/.332/.410 shortened season with the Mets in 2012. Kelly Johnson, 31 years old, was just snapped up by the Rays after posting a .225/.313/.365 line for the Blue Jays and is just two years removed from a .284/.370/.496 line with the Diamondbacks.

    None of these options are great ones; far from it. But given the wide-open nature of the Twins middle infield going into 2013, their obvious ability to spend some of that money, and the looming player option for Carroll, wouldn't it have been prudent to add another player to the mix in hopes that another body gives you a better chance to field a competitive team while also relieving you of being forced into a player option for 2014 that you may want to avoid?

    It's only $2 million. I realize that, yes. On the other hand, it's $2 million that isn't being used in the best way possible by the front office.

    And, unfortunately for Twins fans, that seems to be a recurring theme through this offseason.
    This article was originally published in blog: Inefficient Managing of "Dollars and Years" started by Brock Beauchamp
    Comments 118 Comments
    1. Kwak's Avatar
      Kwak -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      The last three big ST battles we had...or at least that I can remember:

      2008 ST battle for CF: When Gomez 'won' the CF battle, Span had better numbers.
      2010 ST battle for 3B: Harris out played Punto. Punto won. You remember. Punto is my starting shortstop (Twins trade for Hardy)...um, okay, Punto is my starting 2B (Twins sign Hudson)...um, ok Punto and Harris will battle for 3B. Oh, surprise surprise, Punto 'wins'
      2011 rotation battle with supposedly six quality starters but only 5 spots. The guy who had the best ST ERA (Slowey) was the one who ended up out of the rotation.
      You forgot about last year's battle for 3B. Luke Hughes "won" and started at 3rd. But as soon as he struggled he was DFA'd and Plouffe became the starting 3B man despite a worse than Butera BAVG.
    1. edavis0308's Avatar
      edavis0308 -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      Since you appear to be advocating best bat possible for short than why not Doumit for SS? Since Doumit is a better LF than Willingham, Willingham to short and Doumit to left. Beloit moved Sano to third rather than short because of defense. Under your theory of having better defenders on the outside, that would appear to be a mistake as his replacements did not hit nearly as well as he did. Point really being you have to balance the defense with the offense. Yes it is putrid to have a .600 ops guy at short but there is a balance point somewhere with defense and offensive skills. Hanly has superior offensive skills that more than balance the defense as did Jeter in his younger days.
      That's not what he meant and you know it.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
      You forgot about last year's battle for 3B. Luke Hughes "won" and started at 3rd. But as soon as he struggled he was DFA'd and Plouffe became the starting 3B man despite a worse than Butera BAVG.
      Luke Hughes played 4 games for the Twins last year and never started at 3B
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
      That's what I thought would be the case before I cracked into some numbers. You can look at the data for 2010-2012 players here (min 1000 Innings): https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pI...it?usp=sharing

      Although SS will have more balls hit to him, there is just as much variation from the mean in terms of balls fielded, as with LF. This is the case whether or not you include out of zone balls in your totals. (Previously I just looked at in-zone opps and plays made).

      For LFers:


      For SSs:


      When you think about it, its not surprising. IN today's game, Brett Gardner, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre are playing in the corners. Meanwhile Derek Jeter, Ricky Weeks, and Dan Uggla have MI jobs. Things have leveled out.
      I appreciate your work on this, but I can't agree with your conclusions. Interesting take though.
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
      That's not what he meant and you know it.
      If I had a nickel for every time that was thought or stated in response to an ol'nurse post.....
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      Quote Originally Posted by Han Joelo View Post
      I agree with you, Roger, 100 percent. I tortured myself reading the Correia comments yesterday, and was kind of dismayed. Thanks Logan for fighting the good fight, but apparently at TD, one man's vitriol is another man's snark.

      All this angst over such minutiae! I hope they need the saved money for a big mid season trade.
      so the saved money is for a midseason trade? as in we will have to acquire a player who is paid so much we will need an extra 20 million to pay half his salary, or we are going to throw in an extra 20 mil. plus a prospect?
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      Quote Originally Posted by LoganJones View Post
      If we buy the idea that Ronny Cedeno is suddenly getting better at hitting, just kinda out of the blue, then we also have to consider the idea that Florimon can get better with some time. The reason I'm not jumping off the Correia cliff is that I see him as a worthy upgrade over what the Twins had to offer. Cedeno & Johnson? Not true upgrades. If they'd signed Johnson, I would have been cool with it, as he's likely to hit some key homers. Cedeno would have mystified me since they already have him in Florimon.
      I havent looked at cedeno,or johnsons stats, but im guessing they hit better then the .220 florimon did...
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
      That's not what he meant and you know it.
      He in his original post is claiming that corner defense is more important because the damage done by having lesser players in those roles is worse than having less of a glove at shortstop. If indeed the shortstop position can be manned by a poor defensive player to get the best bat possible then the current best bat on the Twins is Doumit. Please try to tell me among the bench players there is a better bat without a position. If his solution to the current Twins dilemma is to get as good as bat as possible given the current state of the Twins and Rochester rosters there wouldn't be many options. That he justifies it with Ben Revere as a corner outfielder because of his defense ignores the fact that one of the two center fielders had to play right.
    1. edavis0308's Avatar
      edavis0308 -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      He in his original post is claiming that corner defense is more important because the damage done by having lesser players in those roles is worse than having less of a glove at shortstop. If indeed the shortstop position can be manned by a poor defensive player to get the best bat possible then the current best bat on the Twins is Doumit. Please try to tell me among the bench players there is a better bat without a position. If his solution to the current Twins dilemma is to get as good as bat as possible given the current state of the Twins and Rochester rosters there wouldn't be many options.
      So your point is we should play a pitcher at center! Butera should be a starting pitcher! Morneau starts at short! We get your nonsensical argument but if you're going to be dense enough to not think he was limiting his argument to only players that are only classified at each given position, albeit the below average players both offensive and defensively, then.. well....grow up.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
      If I had a nickel for every time that was thought or stated in response to an ol'nurse post.....
      If I had a nickel for every time you have been petty or rude.
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      If I had a nickel for every time you have been petty or rude.
      Nurse refers to someone else as rude.

      DRINK!!!
    1. Top Gun's Avatar
      Top Gun -
      Indians signed RHP Matt Capps to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

      Capps earned $4.5 million with the Twins last season while posting a 3.68 ERA and 18/4 K/BB ratio over 29 1/3 innings. The 29-year-old right-hander was limited to just three appearances after the All-Star break due to shoulder issues, but he should have a good chance to win a bullpen spot with the Indians if he's healthy.
    1. Top Gun's Avatar
      Top Gun -
      Capps is another 4M loss for the Twins and I bet he will be better this year.
    1. Kobs's Avatar
      Kobs -
      Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
      TR has stated in the last week that he fully expects to compete and be a contender into the fall. He clearly either thinks 20m of payroll in hand isn't needed to field a quality team
      I'm still convinced that this was the pitch Ryan used to get Smith fired and take back his job.
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      Since you appear to be advocating best bat possible for short than why not Doumit for SS? Since Doumit is a better LF than Willingham, Willingham to short and Doumit to left.
      I would be open to that.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      Nurse refers to someone else as rude.

      DRINK!!!
      Drink up
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      If I had a nickel for every time you have been petty or rude.
      So says the Richard Petty of rude...
      And the Ravishing Rick Rude of petty
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by edavis0308 View Post
      So your point is we should play a pitcher at center! Butera should be a starting pitcher! Morneau starts at short! We get your nonsensical argument but if you're going to be dense enough to not think he was limiting his argument to only players that are only classified at each given position, albeit the below average players both offensive and defensively, then.. well....grow up.
      Can Doumit's range at short be any worse than Jeter's
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      Drink up (last edited by oldnurse...)
      Apparently changes mind on first edited response: "I know you are, but what am I"
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
      Apparently changes mind on first edited response: "I know you are, but what am I"
      Continuing to speculate on what you know nothing about? Here it is the edited out comment just for you. Bicker bicker bicker. My isn't this exciting for everyone to read. Posted it and changed my mind.
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