The Fifth Starter

Gibson for 4 innings a start in Minnesota....why not? They will be carrying a ton of pitchers anyway. He will throw just as hard in AAA ball. If you plan for it, you can get Duensing in that game at the right time. And you see what Gibson has. No chance it happens, it is not how MLB teams run today, and I do not see the Twins as innovators....but that is what I would do. It should 100% not be Duensing....he should be in the pen, where he is effective.

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

It would certainly put Blackburn behind, but I'm just questioning whether it puts him so far behind that he couldn't possibly regain strength and command in five weeks time. If this happened during the season, I guess I envision a pitcher spending 2-3 weeks after cast removal rehabbing and then getting 2-3 starts in the minors on rehab assignment. But, like you, I'm just guessing, too. I don't have a clue what his injury even was and how long it should be expected to take to recover fully.

I guess I'm thinking (guessing?) that since he wouldn't have any of the typical spring training arm-strength-building and command-refining and all that stuff, that after building up that "just out of a cast" strength that he'd THEN have to basically start spring training. As opposed to if it happened in the season, he would already have had some of that building done. Meh...yeah, still just guessing.

I didn't include Harden's name on the list because I consider him an extreme longshot to start the year in the rotation. The guy didn't throw a single inning last year. He's going to open in the minors or, at best, in the bullpen.

Both Gibson and Pelfrey will be limited to 120 innings or so. Why waste Gibson's innings at AAA? Why not start him as the fifth starter while Pelfrey works his way back in the bullpen (perhaps on the DL to start the year and just throwing bullpens with Cuellar)? Then swap them when Gibson hits 100 innings? Even if they sign Saunders, I'd rather have that duo than Hendriks.

As to Harden, he is healthier now than he has been in three years. The underlying problem that eventually led to surgery happened in 2007. He pitched with it, and pitched pretty well with it, until 2010. He's a year removed from surgery. I'm sure he'll need to establish himself in AAA. But he could be a dark horse later in the year. His name at least should have been mentioned.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Both Gibson and Pelfrey will be limited to 120 innings or so.

Where have you heard this about Pelfrey? It seems unlikely to me, since he has incentives in his contract and while I haven't seen the specifics I doubt they start below 120 innings. He's going to want to pitch as much as he can and since it's a one-year deal, the Twins don't have much reason not to let him.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

As to Harden, he is healthier now than he has been in three years. The underlying problem that eventually led to surgery happened in 2007. He pitched with it, and pitched pretty well with it, until 2010. He's a year removed from surgery. I'm sure he'll need to establish himself in AAA. But he could be a dark horse later in the year. His name at least should have been mentioned.

I guess I probably wasn't clear enough about this, but the topic I was trying to tackle was who is going to be the fifth starter at the beginning of the year. If I was talking about guys who might step in at some point, I certainly would have included Harden and probably a few others.

DeVries! When the Twins were desperate for starting pitching last year DeVries was the only one who stepped up and kept the Twins in games on a consistent basis. Not Hendriks, not Deduno, not Walters, and definitely not Blackburn. He's earned consideration for that last spot.

It will come down to Pelfrey, Haren and Hendriks. Possibly Pelfrey will start the season on the dl and Haren in the minors (they would have to find a 40-man spot for him). Gibson will start in long-relief in the minors and become a starter if/when Haren moves to the big leagues. Deduno is a long, long shot...not being on the 40-man.

The Twins have very limited 40-man movement. They have a Rule 5. They have Wood or Roeinke taking spaces who need to stay or be removed. They can drop DeVries and probably not have him claimed by anyone. Swarzak is out of options.

Butera could always be sent away to free a roster spot, but think the Twins want Hermann to spend more time at AAA.

And everything is blown apart if the Twins sign Saunders.

Almost more curious to see who is in the rotation at Rochester, assuming Pelfrey and Haren would start there, Blackburn on a delay, Walters, Deduno, DeVries, maybe May and Meyer, Vasquez and Martis in the mix, maybe Hermsen. Too many bodies there. Maybe the Twins needed to Rule 5 a catching prospect or back-up infielder, of even another, heaven forbid, outfielder!

Why waste Gibson in AAA? If he is one of the five best starters, isn't it better to have all his innings in the majors?

I think Devries will start the season and eventually give way to Pelfrey. Gibson will likely surface in June and move Correia or Pelfrey the pen. I would love for it to be Harden but no way is he ready, if he is by June we could be lloking at, Diamond, Worley, Harden, Gibson and Hendriks, hmmmmmm.

I believe that the 2013 edition of the Twins is compilation of players that TR is hoping will all have career years. I can not believe that he could expect Willingham will have a season like last year, and that Plouffe will have a year like his July and early August, but that's the way it appears.

On the pitching side, I really think that there are pitchers that will excel at Rochester, yet fail at the major league level - read here - De Vries, Hendricks, Blackie, et al. The hope that Diamond (most probably a legit 3 or 4 in any other mlb rotation), Worley (a stretch #2 or 3), and Correia can anchor this staff is scary! Like beyond hope scary!

I am still holding out hope that we make a trade - but who and from where?

I'll call it for Deduno and DeVries to start the season as 5th and 6th starters, with Gibson starting in AAA, then moving to the rotation sometime mid season. Gibson could push Deduno and DeVries into the pen for relief and spot starts, of which there will be many.

Blackburn is now on the outside, looking in. I liked him, but his career is winding down fast. Outside shots for Alex Meyer or Esmerling Vasquez sometime during the season. This rotation is full of guys that have had arm trouble in the past, and half of them will go down if Twins luck holds true.

i agree with Lew, devries pitched the most consistent & he is right he has earned a chance to compete for a spot & there is no doubt he will compete with others like deduno, walters,hendricks, etc..but out of all those the better pitcher was walters, when he 1st came up he was very impressive & then he was injured, if healthy he will be in the mix, and i dont think a 40 man spot matters at all , TR made it clear he doesnt mind clearing a spot...and when the ones that dont make the team go to rochester there is no #6,7 or 8 , the only thing that matters then is who is pitching the best & most consistent & possibly whos day it lines up with..and harden will never see rochester, he either makes the team or if not ready stays in extended getting healthy & goes up, if a spot doesnt open up he opts out, no way he pitches in rochester..

I think Correia is looking more and more like money out the window. I hope I'm wrong but my inkling is that he will be another Marquis. I expect he is DFA's by June. I expect Hendriks to get a spot, Pelfrey should get spot starts but is probably best suited in the bullpen. As much as I'd like to see Gibson get a shot, without AAA experience, and excess other arms with starting potential, he should refine his skills at Rochester. It also concerns me that he still admits to not really feeling "right" though he's throwing the heck out of the ball, he is still figuring out what he has with regards to ball movement and bite on his breaking pitches. Perfect reason to pitch AAA. Deduno and DeVries need to develop another pitch to really be ready up here. Deduno needs to figure out where his two seamer ends up, controlling the fastball is critical to his success. He's got so much movement, he might benefit from working on a cutter, something a bit easier to control. DeVries has a good curve but it's far from knee buckling so another pitch should help him. Maybe improve the changeup. Harden will be closely watched in spring training. Wonder how hard he's throwing. I realize Diamond had a great 2012 but his stuff isn't particularly nasty, just consistent. I suspect he's only locked up a spot because no one else seems to be able to eat innings. Sure hope they sign Joe Saunders. Need some stability in the rotation and he's certainly the kind of guy to do it.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

I fear that the only thing the Rich Harden of 2013 has in common with the Rich Harden of 2004 is, well, the name itself. The track record is that if he's in the rotation, he'll be in and out of it. I am very optimistic that the braintrust can figure out a useful role for him and get productive innings without disrupting anyone else. I just don't see it as being in the rotation, except maybe later on in the year.

I agree--stick a fork in Harden--he is done. Maybe he occupies 5th spot till Pelfrey/Gibson is totally recovered--but maybe not.

My rotation--Diamond, Worley, Corriea, Hendricks (last shot) then Pelfrey/Gibson, skip 5th starter for a while (when needed use Deduno) insert Pelfrey/Gibson May. If Gibson is going to be on an innings limit--pitch him weekly--shuffle the rest and when needed give Deduno a start.

Even if Gardy was inclined to skip a starter, it's unlikely to happen at the beginning of the season when it's early and colder. Our pitchers have even lower pitch counts than normal during the first month, not gonna skip a starter.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Even if Gardy was inclined to skip a starter, it's unlikely to happen at the beginning of the season when it's early and colder. Our pitchers have even lower pitch counts than normal during the first month, not gonna skip a starter.

Because of the way off days are arranged in the early weeks of the season, a team can usually roll with four starters and keep them on regular rest for the first couple turns through the rotation. Pretty sure this happened just last year, when Marquis was away.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Because of the way off days are arranged in the early weeks of the season, a team can usually roll with four starters and keep them on regular rest for the first couple turns through the rotation. Pretty sure this happened just last year, when Marquis was away.

Are you saying that, as a rule, most teams do that?

There's 4 days off in April this year. 26 games played. 8 days straight, 6 games straight, 5 games straight, and 6 games straight.

Only two days off in May. 29 games in May, including streaks of 13 and 15 games straight.

6 days off the first two months.

And he said skip a starter for awhile, wasn't specific to a couple rounds.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Where have you heard this about Pelfrey? It seems unlikely to me, since he has incentives in his contract and while I haven't seen the specifics I doubt they start below 120 innings. He's going to want to pitch as much as he can and since it's a one-year deal, the Twins don't have much reason not to let him.

I suppose Pelfrey won't be treated with kid gloves. This is most likely his audition for other teams. It's a long shot he pitches for the Twins next year, so why not throw him out there until he gets a dead arm? That said, 120 innings is a common benchmark for guys to start getting dead arm a year after Tommy John.

So let's start Gibson as the long man in the bullpen (instead of Swarzak). Give him about 50 innings in that role. When Pelfrey wears out, move Gibson to the rotation and move Pelfrey back to the bullpen (or trade him for a prospect). That'll give Gibson 15 starts or so and 120 innings overall.

Originally Posted by Rosterman

It will come down to Pelfrey, Haren and Hendriks. Possibly Pelfrey will start the season on the dl and Haren in the minors (they would have to find a 40-man spot for him). Gibson will start in long-relief in the minors and become a starter if/when Haren moves to the big leagues. Deduno is a long, long shot...not being on the 40-man.

The Twins have very limited 40-man movement. They have a Rule 5. They have Wood or Roeinke taking spaces who need to stay or be removed. They can drop DeVries and probably not have him claimed by anyone. Swarzak is out of options.

Butera could always be sent away to free a roster spot, but think the Twins want Hermann to spend more time at AAA.

And everything is blown apart if the Twins sign Saunders.

Almost more curious to see who is in the rotation at Rochester, assuming Pelfrey and Haren would start there, Blackburn on a delay, Walters, Deduno, DeVries, maybe May and Meyer, Vasquez and Martis in the mix, maybe Hermsen. Too many bodies there. Maybe the Twins needed to Rule 5 a catching prospect or back-up infielder, of even another, heaven forbid, outfielder!

I doubt Swarzak survives, and he'll get claimed. That's one spot. I hope they don't need three catchers out of the chute. So they could drop Butters, and he won't get claimed. Haren will start the year in AAA. I doubt they sign Saunders, though I hope they can. If they do, DeVries would need to get DFAed.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Are you saying that, as a rule, most teams do that?

No, I said that quite often teams have the option of doing it.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

So let's start Gibson as the long man in the bullpen (instead of Swarzak). Give him about 50 innings in that role. When Pelfrey wears out, move Gibson to the rotation and move Pelfrey back to the bullpen (or trade him for a prospect). That'll give Gibson 15 starts or so and 120 innings overall.

I could get behind that. Problem is that Pelfrey seems somewhat unlikely to be ready to step in at the start of the season, unless his rehab goes extremely well.