• Would a Six-Man Rotation Make Sense?

    Scott Diamond of the Minnesota Twins deliversThe Twins have taken a "quantity, not quality" approaching in assembling their starting rotation this winter, piling up numerous pitchers with limited upside and low price tags. Several of the hurlers that will be in the mix for starting jobs in the spring happen to be tagged with question marks due to recent health issues..

    Kyle Gibson returned late last year from Tommy John surgery and hasn't yet pitched in the majors. Mike Pelfrey is returning from his own TJ operation, which he underwent last May. Vance Worley and Scott Diamond both had minor elbow scopes during the offseason. Rich Harden is trying to come back from major shoulder surgery.

    Given the sheer number of available arms and the fragile nature of many of them, would it make sense for the Twins to open the season with a six-man rotation? This would allow them to get early looks at several different guys while also increasing the rest periods between starts. With pitchers like Gibson and Pelfrey likely to be facing inning restrictions, this approach might help them pitch later into the year. And while the Twins lack punch at the top end of their rotation, they have no shortage of No. 4/5 types so going with six starters wouldn't necessarily dilute the overall quality of the unit much.

    Assuming they won't be adding any more legit arms, the Twins have put themselves into a bit of a quirky situation, with a high volume of potentially useful starters but a daunting shortage of reliability. In order to work these circumstances to their advantage, they might need to get a little creative.

    What do you think?
    This article was originally published in blog: Would a Six-Man Rotation Make Sense? started by Nick Nelson
    Comments 55 Comments
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      The problem is that a 6 man rotation almost certainly means that the team would have 13 pitchers on the team. The bullpen isn't going to be used less and if you are concerned about injuries then you shouldn't be randomly using any of these pitchers out of the bullpen. Pick 5 starters and have Gibson/Harden ready to go in AAA.
    1. mako83's Avatar
      mako83 -
      Why not have Diamond and Worley every five days and have the other four rotate thru that so a rotation within a rotation deal.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      A few things:

      Gardenhire is never doing anything besides a traditional rotation, but that aside . . .

      I don't think the 6-8 pitchers (or more) up for this are equal. Diamond would have to regress pretty damn far for that, and Worley is certainly up there with him. After that it drops to Correia aside from improvements from Hendrik, Deduno, Walter, BLACKBURN, Vasquez, and DeVries, or a hopeful breakout from Hernandez. All until Pelfrey (who, again, isn't good by any means) and Gibson, who is in the first group and might be at the top.

      It would seem that a 4-man rotation is a better idea, especially given pitch counts . . . and that fact that aside from the first inning debacle, Twins pitching seem to break down around inning 5 and 6 (though Liriano was a big culprit for both). This would add to the bullpen and create for more situational matchups which might actually be good. Now if someone is really cruising along and goes deep into or completes a game, they just get an extra day.

      I am not sure how a team struggling to come up with 5 legitimate starters would INCREASE the size of the rotation instead of decreasing it to create more lefty/righty situations.
    1. fairweather's Avatar
      fairweather -
      How do you make a 6 man rotation out of 2 1/2 starting pitchers? Worley and Diamond are the 2 and Gibson the half. So far this off season we've heard that the Twins were going to go hard at starting pitchers. Then Deduno was taken off the MLB roster and I said then that makes sense because the Twins CLAIM that they are going to add 3 MLB pitchers better than Deduno. Well to make a long explanation short I just don't see how Pelfrey in his first year after TJ surgery or Correia are better than Deduno or DeVries for that matter. I'm hoping the Twins still take a flyer on Brandon Webb.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
      How do you make a 6 man rotation out of 2 1/2 starting pitchers? Worley and Diamond are the 2 and Gibson the half. So far this off season we've heard that the Twins were going to go hard at starting pitchers. Then Deduno was taken off the MLB roster and I said then that makes sense because the Twins CLAIM that they are going to add 3 MLB pitchers better than Deduno. Well to make a long explanation short I just don't see how Pelfrey in his first year after TJ surgery or Correia are better than Deduno or DeVries for that matter. I'm hoping the Twins still take a flyer on Brandon Webb.
      Yes to Webb because why not? Deduno or DeVries available for 1/10 the cost and probably the exact same result as Correia. I agree that it is much easier to get 4 starters out of this bunch than 6.
    1. Nick Nelson's Avatar
      Nick Nelson -
      I myself have said Gibson should probably start in the minors, but the more I think about it, the more I think he won't. He was essentially major-league ready when he got hurt, and last year he pitched basically the entire second half, working his way back up to Triple-A then making six starts in the AFL.

      The Twins are going to want to take their best five starters north from Ft. Myers. I'm pretty sure they view Gibson as one of those five and he'll likely reinforce that in spring training.
    1. howeda7's Avatar
      howeda7 -
      Assuming they have 12 pitchers either way, I'm not a fan of a 6-man rotation unless 2 of Pelfrey, Gibson and Harden are in the rotation at once. I'd much rather have Corriea/Blackburn as a long man in the bullpen and have a quicker hook when a guy is having an off night.
    1. Curt's Avatar
      Curt -
      "It's easier to find four good pitchers than five."

      Earl Weaver on why he had a four man rotation rather than five, which all other teams had moved to.
    1. glanzer's Avatar
      glanzer -
      Given what Gardy has to work with, I'd say a 9-man rotation might make sense. For the first time since I started cheering for the Twins in 1993 I have no hope at all going into the season.
    1. jlovren's Avatar
      jlovren -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      As completing 6 innings might be a task also, there would still need to be the large bullpen. That would leave the bench short. A regulars day off would be called playing DH that day.

      With the current make up of the rotation, we do not currently have any guys to take us into the 7th-8th innings on a regular basis. I totally agree that in order for a 6 man rotation to work you would need to carry 12 pitchers. Our bullpen has been inconsistent and we simply don't have that kind of staff where we could sustain any positive results. I think we need to take a cautious approach with Gibson, Pelfrey and Harden (if he even makes the club) to ensure there are no set backs from recovery.
    1. sbknudson's Avatar
      sbknudson -
      An intriguing idea. I suspect that, right now, everything is on the table. They don't really know what they have to work with right now; they'll use spring training to assess that. My guess is they customize their pitching plans based on what they see in February and March.

      And who knows? Perhaps the season won't be as bad as everybody is anticipating? Look at the Vikings. Nobody expected them to be even close to contending, and they made the playoffs. I'm not predicting post-season play for Gardy and the boys, but it would only take a couple of the gambles the Twins have made this offseason to work out to make things interesting.

      Just as a rule of thumb, it's when everybody else is predicting disaster that I look for upside surprise.
    1. h2oface's Avatar
      h2oface -
      I still miss the 4 man rotations.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      I think someone should do a follow-up to this entitled "Would playing three of our middle infielders every day make sense?"

      Same principle,
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      I think someone should do a follow-up to this entitled "Would playing three of our middle infielders every day make sense?"

      Same principle,
      Haha, I agree. I don't understand how a 4-man rotation, given this crop of "talent" wouldn't make more sense. Obviously, Gardy is going with a 5-man rotation, but the principle matters. The Twins have 2 goodish pitchers and several varying question marks. Keep the question marks low at 4, maximize the utility of the bullpen (which would be 8 guys), and keep me sane.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Right, two man rotation, and a lot of 2-3 inning guys.
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