• Correia Signing is a Sad Thing

    Terry Ryan has seemed exasperated when discussing his efforts on the free agent market this offseason. In an interview on MLB Network shortly after the Ben Revere trade took place, the Twins' general manager reacted incredulously to Ken Rosenthal's suggestion that it might behoove him to get on his horse and sign a pitcher.

    "We've tried," Ryan chuckled. "Sometimes you just can't give your money away."

    Well, Terry, you have finally managed to accomplish that much.

    The pitching-starved Twins finally made their first foray into free agency on Monday night, inking right-hander Kevin Correia to a two-year, $10 million deal.

    Here's what we had to say about Correia in the Offseason Handbook:

    Correia is a back-end starter in the low-strikeout, OK-control, pitch-to-contact mold. Even this year with the Pirates, a year in which he posted a 4.21 ERA, he was the guy bumped to the bullpen when they acquired Wandy Rodriguez at the deadline. But he’s relatively young, cheap and fairly durable. Unfortunately, he has also spent his entire eight-year MLB career in the National League. There is no guarantee the limited success he has experienced there would carry over to the AL (see: Marquis, Jason).
    The final parenthetical sums it up nicely. We predicted he'd land a one-year, $2.5 million contract – similar to what Jason Marquis got last year – and that's probably around where the Twins started. But in this inflated market, there is apparently no such thing as a one-year deal. Not even for a 32-year-old who has only once topped 171 innings, has one of the worst strikeout rates in baseball, and hasn't posted an ERA+ above 100 since 2007.

    Correia was a fourth-round pick out of college who reached the majors quickly and had some early success. But as he's aged, the quality of his stuff has diminished. When he was 26, he struck out 18.3 percent of the batters he faced. Last year, 12.2 percent. As the Handbook blurb mentions, he was bumped from the Pirates rotation midway through this past season.

    And he gets $10 million.

    This is depressing because it means one of two things. Either that Ryan actually believes a player with these attributes is worth jumping on when there are plenty of other names on the board, or that he is having so little luck attracting free agents of any caliber that he felt the need to lock up the first offer that someone – anyone – finally accepted. The GM may have feared that if he didn't act on an opportunity, he might be left with nothing.

    Then again, nothing probably would have been preferable to Correia. He's been a bad pitcher in the National League over the past three years and he's aging into his mid-30s. It's not clear that he's a significantly better option than Liam Hendriks or Sam Deduno, particularly if you're building toward a future contender.

    And he gets $10 million.

    This is one of the most outrageous contracts in an offseason that's been full of them. It's too bad the Twins had to be the ones to sign it. They'd have been better off adding that $10 million on top of an offer to a pitcher who could actually make a difference.

    Maybe not even that would be enough to entice a legitimate starter to join this club. If that's the case, then the 2013 Twins truly are hopeless.
    This article was originally published in blog: Correia Signing is a Sad Thing started by Nick Nelson
    Comments 166 Comments
    1. gunnarthor's Avatar
      gunnarthor -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
      It's good to praise them when they do things right. It's also good to understand who and what you're dealing with before you look foolish for writing something so quickly, easily, obviously and predictably proven utterly wrong.
      Ryan has never been in this position before. He's never had much more than $10m to patch together a team in the offseason. While we all know he skews on the cheap side of the spectrum, there's no reason to think he was going to be this cheap. He has at least $20m to spend, probably more like $25-30m to spend. There's just no excuse for this type of signing unless he is still in the market for one of the decent arms on the market.

      And after this signing, I'm incredibly skeptical that he's going to make a splash.
      My guess, and it's only a guess, is that Ryan isn't willing to give the years to guys like Dempster, Marcum etc. The annual salary probably isn't a problem.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Anyone know how many of his strikeouts last year were against non-pitchers?
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
      It's good to praise them when they do things right. It's also good to understand who and what you're dealing with before you look foolish for writing something so quickly, easily, obviously and predictably proven utterly wrong.
      Ryan has never been in this position before. He's never had much more than $10m to patch together a team in the offseason. While we all know he skews on the cheap side of the spectrum, there's no reason to think he was going to be this cheap. He has at least $20m to spend, probably more like $25-30m to spend. There's just no excuse for this type of signing unless he is still in the market for one of the decent arms on the market.

      And after this signing, I'm incredibly skeptical that he's going to make a splash.
      My guess, and it's only a guess, is that Ryan isn't willing to give the years to guys like Dempster, Marcum etc. The annual salary probably isn't a problem.
      Then he's not going to get a pitcher to improve the team. That's all there is to it. In this market, you can't be afraid of a three year contract or you're not going to get anyone. And given that the Twins' payroll will actually decrease next season after Morneau is gone, it's not as if a 3 year deal is going to kill the franchise.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Anyone know how many of his strikeouts last year were against non-pitchers?
      Surprisingly, only 12 of those strikeouts came against pitchers.

      Even pitchers can make contact on this guy.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
      Anyone know how many of his strikeouts last year were against non-pitchers?
      Surprisingly, only 12 of those strikeouts came against pitchers.

      Even pitchers can make contact on this guy.
      So he strikes out batters 1-8 about as much as he strikes out pitchers...oh goody
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Pitches to contact...ERA over 4.20 in the NL last year...very low strikeout rate, WHIP of almost 1.300. Hasn't have a good season since 2009 (where he pitched in the NL and in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball).


      Will fit right in.


      This is more like the Terry Ryan we know and...well...
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      I don't mean to step on your guys' work here, and I'll pull down the post if you want. But it is appropriate to the discussion I think:

      From John's interview in the handbook
      JB: So you’re looking to add a top of the rotation,
      maybe not a number 1 guy, but maybe a number two
      guy or a top half of the rotation?
      TR: We’ll see. We’ll figure out how many years he’s
      looking for and how many dollars they want to get.
      JB: Are you willing to give multi-year deals to pitchers?
      TR: You aren’t going to get a pitcher unless you give a
      multi-year deal.
      JB: OK. So you’re comfortable with multi-year deals,
      too.
      TR: How many multi-years are you looking at?
      JB: Right…
      TR: Are you looking at eight? I’m not.
      JB: Probably not looking for eight?
      TR: You’re not and I’m not.
      JB: No?
      TR: No. It just depends. Age, experience, health history,
      mechanics, success, change in league.
      JB: It sounds like you’re sitting back and seeing what in
      the market comes to you, as opposed to aggressively
      chasing a couple of targets.
      TR: If I do that, we’ll probably be holding the bag. You
      know pitching is going to go off the board. We certainly
      have to be looking at it.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      I notice that a lot of people seem to have this idea that they feel is fact. That idea being no pitcher wants to come play here.

      So many people seem to want to, in a roundabout way, defend signings like this by saying (as if it's 100% fact) that no one else wants to come here so that's the best he can do. Twins just started losing. They aren't perennial doormats. Pitchers aren't coming here because Ryan doesn't value them enough to pay what the market has become, not because Minnesota is the leper colony of the US.

      Most of the time, a players signs where they get the most money.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
      I don't mean to step on your guys' work here, and I'll pull down the post if you want. But it is appropriate to the discussion I think:

      From John's interview in the handbook
      JB: So you’re looking to add a top of the rotation,
      maybe not a number 1 guy, but maybe a number two
      guy or a top half of the rotation?
      TR: We’ll see. We’ll figure out how many years he’s
      looking for and how many dollars they want to get.
      JB: Are you willing to give multi-year deals to pitchers?
      TR: You aren’t going to get a pitcher unless you give a
      multi-year deal.
      JB: OK. So you’re comfortable with multi-year deals,
      too.
      TR: How many multi-years are you looking at?
      JB: Right…
      TR: Are you looking at eight? I’m not.
      JB: Probably not looking for eight?
      TR: You’re not and I’m not.
      JB: No?
      TR: No. It just depends. Age, experience, health history,
      mechanics, success, change in league.
      JB: It sounds like you’re sitting back and seeing what in
      the market comes to you, as opposed to aggressively
      chasing a couple of targets.
      TR: If I do that, we’ll probably be holding the bag. You
      know pitching is going to go off the board. We certainly
      have to be looking at it.
      That's fine with me. Just so long as you don't post a substantial portion of the interview (say, a page), I'm cool with posting fragments relevant to the conversation at hand.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      This deal doesn't magically get better if they sign Sanchez. No amount of makeup fixes this pig. They dumped 5 mil this year on a backend NL starter with no upside and tremendous downside. They even managed to foolishly commit another 5 mil to next years payroll for this garbage. It is a bad contract to a bad player, no subsequent moves will fix that.

      Funny to hear the tune change here. Pretty much everything I said in the wake of the Baker deal has proven to be spot on. This article should taste like an awful lot of crow for many around here. The myths of this offseason turning this team into a contender are coming to fruition in exactly the wayreasonable minds would expect. Good trades though - that's our JR!
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Lowest strikeout rate among right-handed pitchers the last two years. (per Gleeman)
    1. Kobs's Avatar
      Kobs -
      I don't know what you guys are so upset about, the Twins just nabbed an All-Star pitcher!
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      I'm not going to get to worked up about it. 5 million dollars a year is something you can swallow even if he does suck. I'd much rather see them do this then overpay out the ass for Ryan Dumpster.

      Let's see who else he brings in this off-season before we call for his head, both of his trades so far have been great and his signings last off-season were all pretty good as well (sans Marquis- who btw actually preformed very well once he left the Twins)

      As long as we can get a Jackson/Marcum/Sanchez to add onto this, I won't be to upset about Correia slotting in the 5 spot.
    1. twinsnorth49's Avatar
      twinsnorth49 -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      This deal doesn't magically get better if they sign Sanchez. No amount of makeup fixes this pig. They dumped 5 mil this year on a backend NL starter with no upside and tremendous downside. They even managed to foolishly commit another 5 mil to next years payroll for this garbage. It is a bad contract to a bad player, no subsequent moves will fix that.

      Funny to hear the tune change here. Pretty much everything I said in the wake of the Baker deal has proven to be spot on. This article should taste like an awful lot of crow for many around here. The myths of this offseason turning this team into a contender are coming to fruition in exactly the way reasonable minds would expect. Good trades though - that's our JR!
      "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes" - Winston Churchill.

      Congratulations.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Signing a good pitcher would be a good thing, but that does not make signing this guy a good thing. It is a bad signing, especially for a budget conscious team.
    1. kdag23's Avatar
      kdag23 -
      To me it feels like a Jason Marquis deal. So, the Twins are going to have a rotation made up of guys that are no better than #3 on most other rosters in the league...again?

      This signing irks me considering that KC just signed James Shields. K f******C! The Twins don't have the pieces to do something like that - to sign someone who could actually be a legitimate #1?

      I got to thinking about Torii Hunter's comments a few seasons ago when talking about the Twins: "Sometimes I think they have that small mind over there, in that organization."
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by kdag23 View Post
      To me it feels like a Jason Marquis deal. So, the Twins are going to have a rotation made up of guys that are no better than #3 on most other rosters in the league...again?

      This signing irks me considering that KC just signed James Shields. K f******C! The Twins don't have the pieces to do something like that - to sign someone who could actually be a legitimate #1?

      I got to thinking about Torii Hunter's comments a few seasons ago when talking about the Twins: "Sometimes I think they have that small mind over there, in that organization."
      The Royals didn't sign James Shields, they traded the best hitting prospect in baseball to get him....
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      If Correia is a three, this is an awesome deal. He is not even a five. He is one of the three worst starters in baseball the last two years.
    1. Big City's Avatar
      Big City -
      I'm not going to totally rip this deal because in my estimation the Twins needed 1 back of the rotation SP to fill the gap until Gibson was ready. I may have preferred Brett Myers because we could have moved him back to the bullpen but then we'd be paying a reliever around $7mil/year for 2-3 years. If you look at the short-term, low money SP options you have names like Liriano, Jurrjens, Bedard, Braden, Garcia, Harden, Pavano, Pinero, etc. The other option would have been just using Deduno or DeVries as the #5. So, considering those options I'd actally trust in TR's scouting in finding the best of available option which in this case is Correia.

      Now, let's see where we go from here, we still need a top (near top) of the rotation SP and a middle infielder and the two I'd prefer are Marcum and Drew. If TR can't lure in any of these caliber players then we may as well trade Willingham and Morneau. I'm interested to see what happens with Seattle. They've been attached to every free agent hitter but so far have struck out. If Seattle misses out on Hamilton and Swisher how much do you think they'd offer for Willingham, Carroll, and Morneau?
    1. rogrulz30's Avatar
      rogrulz30 -
      Signing correira isn't the end of the world for the twins, at 5 million a year isn't going to make or break anything, reality is we need to get a rotation in place, I m going to b the only person who doesn't mind this pick up. My guess is the hope he pitches well enough to make another trade for another prospect anyway. If u look at our rotation we now are 3/5 of the way there, and we can still have competition for the blackies, dedunos, devries, and hendriks guys. I have no issues with this move!! There is still time to get Villanueva, Marcum, if we don't move on them, it will really b a long year
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