Gleeman and the Geek: Ep 67: Trade Rumors and Claire Forlani

By repeatedly saying the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, Aaron is continually ignoring the NL West, which was AWFUL for much of the 2000s. The White Sox won the WS in 2005. The Tigers went to the WS in 2006. The Twins were very good in 2006 and 2010. The AL Central was actually pretty good through much of the 2000s.

2006 was the only time I can remember where the AL Central was a top division. We've had division winner with less than 90 wins in three of the last five seasons.

This year we had two teams with a winning record. In 2011, we had one team with a winning record, In 2010 we had two. In fact, since the end of 2006, we've only had two or less teams with a winning record.

One team getting hot in the playoffs doesn't make a division very good...

Originally Posted by ThePuck

2006 was the only time I can remember where the AL Central was a top division. We've had division winner with less than 90 wins in three of the last five seasons.

This year we had two teams with a winning record. In 2011, we had one team with a winning record, In 2010 we had two. In fact, since the end of 2006, we've only had two or less teams with a winning record.

One team getting hot in the playoffs doesn't make a division very good...

If you listen to the podcast, Aaron was dismissing the Twins' division titles pretty casually. From 2008 on, I'd agree that the AL Central has been pretty miserable. Before that, though? No, there were worse divisions in baseball, especially the NL West, where the Padres won the division in 2005 by winning a mighty 82 (!) games.

John brought up some points I've been saying about the Rays for a few years now. Their current success was largely built on the backs of several top three drafts. Now that they've spent five years near the top, they're running out of those top draft picks as they bleed off to free agency. The true test of that front office is happening now. Can they continue to be a 90 win team when picking in the bottom ten of every draft? It's something the Twins found they couldn't do after having bottom 15 picks for most of a decade. I'm not knocking the Rays, I think they're one of the better franchises in baseball but it's a lot easier to win when you have a half dozen top five picks on your roster.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by ThePuck

2006 was the only time I can remember where the AL Central was a top division. We've had division winner with less than 90 wins in three of the last five seasons.

This year we had two teams with a winning record. In 2011, we had one team with a winning record, In 2010 we had two. In fact, since the end of 2006, we've only had two or less teams with a winning record.

One team getting hot in the playoffs doesn't make a division very good...

If you listen to the podcast, Aaron was dismissing the Twins' division titles pretty casually. From 2008 on, I'd agree that the AL Central has been pretty miserable. Before that, though? No, there were worse divisions in baseball, especially the NL West, where the Padres won the division in 2005 by winning a mighty 82 (!) games.

John brought up some points I've been saying about the Rays for a few years now. Their current success was largely built on the backs of several top three drafts. Now that they've spent five years near the top, they're running out of those top draft picks as they bleed off to free agency. The true test of that front office is happening now. Can they continue to be a 90 win team when picking in the bottom ten of every draft? It's something the Twins found they couldn't do after having bottom 15 picks for most of a decade. I'm not knocking the Rays, I think they're one of the better franchises in baseball but it's a lot easier to win when you have a half dozen top five picks on your roster.

Pitt and KC have had the same thing going for them...they haven't been able to replicate TB's success and Pitt and KC didn't have to play in the AL East either. Additionally, those TB teams aren't exactly loaded with talent either...not positional talent anyway. What TB managed to do was focus on pitching.

I think John's point was that since the playoffs are a crapshoot, then the interdivision imbalance is irrelavant. All that matters is being good enough to get in, so a team doesn't get extra credit for winning 90 games in the regular season like the Rays did this year when the Tigers won 88, because the Tigers got in and the Rays didn't.

With a wildcard, now two wildcards, combined with the unbalanced schedule, there is a higher premium in being able to defeat interdivisional rivals in the AL than there ever has been. To Aaron's point, this is easier done by improving your club in absolute terms, because now those 7-9 games against the Rangers, Rays, Orioles, and Angels are about as critical as the 19 games against the White Sox and Tigers. In fact, I haven't done the math, but they may even be slightly more critical.

edit: Oh and the Yankees and I guess Red Sox. Basically, since there is a 2nd wild card up for grabs, everyone else in the AL regardless of division is now challenged to beat up on the best teams in all AL divisions if they are going to have a shot at that 2nd wildcard. Obviously only the Rangers were up for that challenge in 2012.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Pitt and KC have had the same thing going for them...they haven't been able to replicate TB's success and Pitt and KC didn't have to play in the AL East either. Additionally, those TB teams aren't exactly loaded with talent either...not positional talent anyway. What TB managed to do was focus on pitching.

I'm not taking anything away from the Rays. They're one of the better franchises in baseball. But before anyone crowns them a permanent small market darling, they need to win for more than five years. The Twins posted a decade of winning baseball before bad drafting and picking in the bottom portion of the draft drained their farm system to virtually nothing. The Rays are at the five year mark. Will they continue to win or will they sputter as the Twins did after 2010?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Pitt and KC have had the same thing going for them...they haven't been able to replicate TB's success and Pitt and KC didn't have to play in the AL East either. Additionally, those TB teams aren't exactly loaded with talent either...not positional talent anyway. What TB managed to do was focus on pitching.

I'm not taking anything away from the Rays. They're one of the better franchises in baseball. But before anyone crowns them a permanent small market darling, they need to win for more than five years. The Twins posted a decade of winning baseball before bad drafting and picking in the bottom portion of the draft drained their farm system to virtually nothing. The Rays are at the five year mark. Will they continue to win or will they sputter as the Twins did after 2010?

Any particular reason we should wait five years, or is that only because the Rays have been successful for the last four and that's not impressive enough?

Also... the Twins posted 8 years (less than a decade) of winning baseball in a substantially easier division than the Rays are in.

Also... bad drafting is the Twins' fault. Picking in the bottom portion of the first round doesn't excuse that.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Pitt and KC have had the same thing going for them...they haven't been able to replicate TB's success and Pitt and KC didn't have to play in the AL East either. Additionally, those TB teams aren't exactly loaded with talent either...not positional talent anyway. What TB managed to do was focus on pitching.

I'm not taking anything away from the Rays. They're one of the better franchises in baseball. But before anyone crowns them a permanent small market darling, they need to win for more than five years. The Twins posted a decade of winning baseball before bad drafting and picking in the bottom portion of the draft drained their farm system to virtually nothing. The Rays are at the five year mark. Will they continue to win or will they sputter as the Twins did after 2010?

Any particular reason we should wait five years, or is that only because the Rays have been successful for the last four and that's not impressive enough?

Also... the Twins posted 8 years (less than a decade) of winning baseball in a substantially easier division than the Rays are in.

Also... bad drafting is the Twins' fault. Picking in the bottom portion of the first round doesn't excuse that.

I agree with your post, but they've been successful for 5 years already...which is why he said more than 5 years. Another thing not mentioned...the payroll the Rays have had to work with compared to the payroll of the rest of the team's in their division.

To just say they've drafted high for so many years is why they've been good for now...well, that's just too simple. Pitt has too, so has KC. The players still had to be developed properly, and the roster still had to be touched up through FA under a very small budget.

Oh, and the players have to be managed properly at the big level too.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I agree with your post, but they've been successful for 5 years already...which is why he said more than 5 years. Another thing not mentioned...the payroll the Rays have had to work with compared to the payroll of the rest of the team's in their division.

To just say they've drafted high for so many years is why they've been good for now...well, that's just too simple. Pitt has too, so has KC. The players still had to be developed properly, and the roster still had to be touched up through FA under a very small budget.

Oh, and the players have to be managed properly at the big level too.

I should have done my homework. But I was too busy thinking about Claire Forlani and scotch.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

I should have done my homework. But I was too busy thinking about Claire Forlani and scotch.

One could hardly blame you for doing so :-)

John, any time Gleeman throws the "Rays current regime" argument back at you, let him know that they have not drafted a single major leaguer since 2008, and they are the ONLY team in baseball who hasn't drafted a player who made the majors since 2008. They have still done well internationally, but facts are facts. Not one major leaguer drafted while every other major league team has multiple in the same time period.