Pickin' Berrios

Originally Posted by ThePuck

No Berrios isn't Kershaw or Felix, but when those two were that young, did everyone know they'd turn out exactly how they did? I wonder who people were saying those two weren't when they were that young...

Berrios' numbers in rookie ball were better than Kershaw's...arguably better than King Felix's...at least stat-line wise. We could really have something here.

Thank you. It's absolutely absurd to see the definitive statements in this thread--he's not Kershaw, he won't get past CR, he won't have another astounding season.

The likelihood based on the rarity of elite pitching prospects and mind-blowing performances by very young pitchers coupled with Berrios's previous scouting report make the most probable answer that he'll have a good but semi-volatile season in A- ball. But, I think the notion that if he comes out dominating anywhere near the level that he did last season that there's still zero chance he gets to A+ ball or is a truly elite prospect is absurd. Sure, this scenario isn't likely, but given his performance last season, it's intriguing to not have to rule it out. I'm excited for Berrios mainly because he's put himself in a position to ponder that hypothetical scenario. That could bode very well for his long term future.

I see Berrios being somewhat like Linecum....in that he is not a large-bodied pitcher, but can still throw gas with movement. His off-speed stuff is nasty (like Lincecum), and all we need is a chance to see him in a legit minor league.

We will see Berrios pitch for P.R. in the WBC!!!!!

Some of you guys need to be realistic about your expectations for him. He is advanced for his age, which why he dominated. The big question is if his stuff is going to play at higher levels. It's hard to really judge a pitcher after his first season of pro ball, especially young ones. Low-A should start to give him more challenges, but I don't think he'll have much trouble there and get promoted to the FSL halfway through the season. Hitters in this league still struggle with plate discipline and pitch recognition. Berrios has very good control and 3 very good pitches. With his make-up I think he wont get pushed until AA when hitters start to take mistake pitches over the fence.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

John Sickels scouting report:

Minor League Prospect Note: Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins

One of my favorite pitchers from the 2012 draft is Jose Berrios (sometimes referred to as J.O. Berrios), a high school pitcher from Puerto Rico drafted in the supplemental first round by the Minnesota Twins. Berrios has been outstanding in pro ball. He threw five shutout innings for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League on Friday, allowing two hits, walking nobody, while fanning 11.


Overall, in 25.2 innings split between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League, Berrios has allowed two runs (0.70 ERA), just 10 hits, only four walks, while fanning 43. That's right, 43/4 K/BB in 25.2 innings with 10 hits allowed.


Standing 6-0, 190, the 18-year-old Berrios is showing a mid-90s fastball, and both his breaking ball and changeup are exceeding his pre-draft scouting reports. The breaking ball is variously described as either a hard curve or a slider, depending on which source you're talking to, but either way it is effective. His changeup is advanced for his age. He also tinkered with a cutter and a slow curve as an amateur. Although he doesn't have much physical projection remaining in terms of size, he is athletic, repeats his mechanics well, and has mature mound presence.


The Twins used him in relief at first in the Gulf Coast League to get him acclimated to pro ball, but he's starting now and has the arsenal to stick there. His control has been very sharp, and obviously his performance has been outstanding so far. I like him a lot and he could end up being one of the best pitchers in the draft class.

Berrios is one of Sickels favorites yet he didn't even include him in his top 50 pitching prospects. He was also asked about the bolded comment recently and he almost sounded surprised that he had earlier said that. He clarified that comment by toning it down but I can't find it because it's one random comment in a random post from the last couple of months.

The important thing when evaluating prospects is to stay grounded in your expectations. I really, really like Berrios and I'm very bullish on him. I even think that it's possible that he dominates the minors. But even if he does you need to consider how many elite prospects that have dominated AA/AAA with awesome scouting reports have struggled to become even #3's in the majors. Right now we're talking about someone that is ranked outside of the top 100 prospects and has thrown a few innings in rookie ball.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

Some of you guys need to be realistic about your expectations for him. He is advanced for his age, which why he dominated. The big question is if his stuff is going to play at higher levels. It's hard to really judge a pitcher after his first season of pro ball, especially young ones. Low-A should start to give him more challenges, but I don't think he'll have much trouble there and get promoted to the FSL halfway through the season. Hitters in this league still struggle with plate discipline and pitch recognition. Berrios has very good control and 3 very good pitches. With his make-up I think he wont get pushed until AA when hitters start to take mistake pitches over the fence.

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

Pedro Martinez was only 5ft 11 inches , hope berrois at an even 6 foot is a better pitcher =)

Oh man, if Berrios even approaches the level of PJ Martinez then we have an ace

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

You took what he said as fizzle out? There is a massive difference between being challenged and fizzling out.

Basically in this thread you are turning any critical comment about Berrios into the equivalent of 'he sucks'. You've based your super high optimism on 30 innings of rk ball and selectively reading scouting reports. He absolutely dominated those 30 innings but at the end of the day rk ball stats come close to meaningless since there is just a bunch of HS/college non prospects there.

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

Pedro Martinez was only 5ft 11 inches , hope berrois at an even 6 foot is a better pitcher =)

This is a good joke. I really am laughing.

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

Not at all. I'm pretty high on him, but need to see more success at higher levels before getting carried away. Were you following the minors while Garza was coming up with the Twins? Different scenario completely, but Garza destroyed every level of the minors and is simply an above average pitcher with an attitude problem now. My point is, domination in the minors (especially rookie ball) doesn't mean a player is going to hold down a roster spot for 10 years. What kab and I are saying, is there are too many examples of prospects that have everyone raving and then drop off the map. Keep expectations realistic for these kids.

That said, I love Berrios. He has #2 upside and sounds like a good kid and hard worker. At this point we've only heard positive things about him. If he continues to develop he will no doubt land in the top 100 prospects soon, probably had a shot this year.

Thanks for your opinions on Berrios. And kab21, I am sincerely sorry if any of my posts have offended you in any way.

As for your accusation of me having "super high optimism" about Jose's projections....I have posted several of my 2015 Twins pitching rotations on this site, and none of them have Berrios as our #1 or #2 starter. So, I definitely agree he is probably not an ace (even by Twins' standards). But until he actually does struggle in the minors, I will be hopeful he proves all the doubters wrong and becomes an MLB-caliber ACE. I see nothing wrong with that.

Am I thinking critically about him? not so much, but I doubt that J. Berrios sees himself as a #3 starter. He surely wants to be #1, and he is really the most influential person on this topic of projection. Not you, or me, or any scout out there.

If Berrios is even in your 2015 rotation you are way too optimistic.

I'm not offended by your optimism but I think that you are setting yourself up disappointment. I also don't others to go overboard on Berrios because they start seeing Kershaw's, Pedro's and Felix's name in the thread. Regardless of what he did in rk ball he is nothing like them. It's pretty unlikely that even Dylan bundy (the best pitching prospect in baseball) even matches what they've done in the majors.

Originally Posted by kab21

If Berrios is even in your 2015 rotation you are way too optimistic.

I'm not offended by your optimism but I think that you are setting yourself up disappointment. I also don't others to go overboard on Berrios because they start seeing Kershaw's, Pedro's and Felix's name in the thread. Regardless of what he did in rk ball he is nothing like them. It's pretty unlikely that even Dylan bundy (the best pitching prospect in baseball) even matches what they've done in the majors.

Sounds like youre a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. And that's fine! Nothing wrong with wanting a prospect to prove himself through the levels of the minor leagues. But let me point something out.....Buxton's Rookie ball production did not look great on paper. Yet, Bux was chosen by Base. Amer. as the #1 prospect in both rookie leagues.

Berrios was not nearly as highly-touted as Byron, but his rookie numbers were ridiculous. I know, we are talking about rookie stats. My question for you....if Bux is going to be compared to anyone named Upton, then who can we compare Berrios to?

Hey, I may be disappointed if Berrios doesn't become an MLB #3, but I can certainly hope for more than that from him. I am NOT AFRAID TO BE DISAPPOINTED ABOUT ANY BASEBALL PROSPECT. Please let me dream.

I threw the name Lincecum out there based on body type and "stuff" And...I agree that Kershaw and King Felix are poor comparisons for Berrios. Pedro Martinez is a better comparison as far as body-type. But nobody that is sane would predict Berrios' MLB production would even approach Pedro or Lincecum for that matter.

I wouldn't consider myself a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. I would consider myself someone that isn't going to drool over 30 innings of rk ball numbers. you try to concede that point but then go on about Buxton's numbers did not look great. The reason that he is a great prospect is that his scouting reports say that he has Upton (more BJ than Justin) tools and the legitimate potential to be a multiple all-star. That's why he's ranked #1 in both leagues. Of course he could flame out in AA still because he hasn't done much yet.

Please elaborate on how Berrios is anything like Lincecum other than he is short. This is the trap that many fall into when they want to hype up a short pitching prospect. Berrios is a very good prospect and he was an excellent value where the Twins got him but his scouting reports and rankings do not come close to matching the hype that you are throwing out there. I haven't seen a name comp attached to Berrios yet but name comps usually look silly 5 years later. What I have seen is that most have attached a mid rotation starter tag to him so dream reasonably.

Originally Posted by kab21

I wouldn't consider myself a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. I would consider myself someone that isn't going to drool over 30 innings of rk ball numbers. you try to concede that point but then go on about Buxton's numbers did not look great. The reason that he is a great prospect is that his scouting reports say that he has Upton (more BJ than Justin) tools and the legitimate potential to be a multiple all-star. That's why he's ranked #1 in both leagues. Of course he could flame out in AA still because he hasn't done much yet.

Please elaborate on how Berrios is anything like Lincecum other than he is short. This is the trap that many fall into when they want to hype up a short pitching prospect. Berrios is a very good prospect and he was an excellent value where the Twins got him but his scouting reports and rankings do not come close to matching the hype that you are throwing out there. I haven't seen a name comp attached to Berrios yet but name comps usually look silly 5 years later. What I have seen is that most have attached a mid rotation starter tag to him so dream reasonably.

I am guilty of player comp's...its how I discuss prospects. Comparing minor leaguers to established guys is really not fair to both players. But it is a good way to describe a player that has not been exposed on a national level. And yes, they can look silly down the road.

Berrios resembles Lincecum in my mind because they are both about the same height/weight. Both have fastballs that tail in to right-handed hitter, and when Lincecum was younger he was mid-90's like Berrios is now. Both feature two solid off-speed offerings (Lincecum the split and curve, Berrios the slurve and change).

Timmy was a high-expectations college draftee while Berrios was simply an exceptional high school arm. At 22 years old, Lincecum dominated A+ and the giants elected to skip him up to AAA to begin the next season. After 5 starts in AAA as a 23-yr-old, Lincecum was promoted and won two Cy-Youngs.

I am NOT saying Berrios is going to win a Cy Young award. What I am saying is that time will tell us all what we should expect from him. He is slightly ahead of the Tim Lincecum schedule if he starts in low-A, since Timmy went to college. So, we will have to be very patient while berrios works his way up to A+...that level of play will tell us alot about what we have. Hopefully he starts in Cedar Rapids right away this spring and we get a look at him in the FSL (a real league) in 2013.

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

He is slightly ahead of the Tim Lincecum schedule if he starts in low-A, since Timmy went to college.

This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

Yes, I admit its not fair to berrios or timmy. But they are quite similar in body-type and pitching "stuff"..beyond that they do not compare favorably since their paths to the bigs will be so different. berrios will probably not skip a single level on his way to MN, while Timmy was already seasoned when the Giants got him at #10 overall.

An interesting study on pitcher height and its correlation with durability and effectiveness: Does a Pitcher?s Height Matter? | SABR

The data speak for themselves. Baseball organizations have been scouting, signing, and developing players based on a fallacious assumption. Shorter pitchers are just as effective and durable as taller pitchers. If a player has the ability to get drafted, then he should be drafted in the round that fits his talent.
The opportunity for major-league clubs is currently at its greatest potential. Clubs that value short pitchers with talent have an opportunity similar to those of clubs that, a decade or more ago, valued on-base percentage at a time when many of their competitors did not.